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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $211.14EOD only
Max Pain
$210.00
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.36
2.5% from close
Price Gap
-1.14
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
45
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.80
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
9.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
NVDA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

NVDA is in a pinning, bullish-flow regime with dealers long gamma (GEX +$948.0M) and concentrated pin magnets just inside the current price. Best strategy for near-term earnings events is a targeted volatility play (buying a straddle/strangle around the big 195 pivot) or premium sell where you can manage gap risk — size small vs large gapped guidance. Key risk: a guidance-driven gap that exceeds the 1–2 day EM rails (±$3.04) and blows past dealer pinning, producing rapid one-sided re-pricing.

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Watch how price interacts with the heavy GEX at $195.00 (pin magnet) into the next 48 hours.
📌Primary short-term pin: $195.00 (near-term GEX +$149.9M and heavy call OI).
🟢Flow is heavily call-biased: $200 net call premium $218,860,458 — upside interest dominates option premium.
⏳Next confirmed earnings date is 2026-05-20 (TBD); most actionable flows and EMs in the next 2 weeks are pre-earnings price discovery events.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$140.00 — Below $140 dealers amplify moves; put concentration 82,750 (28.8% below spot) anchors flip around $140

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-20 (TBD) (36 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-15 (1d): 7.47 - $199.55 (±$3.04, 1.6%)
  • 2026-04-17 (3d): 191.39 - $201.62 (±$5.12, 2.6%)
  • 2026-04-20 (6d): 190.29 - $202.72 (±$6.21, 3.2%)
  • 2026-05-01 (17d): 184.86 - $208.16 (±$11.65, 5.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Very front-loaded lows with a rise into multi-week expirations: 1d ATM 25.5% → 3d 30.9% → 17d 33.7% → 31d ~33.9%. Term shows higher IV beyond the immediate 1–3 day options.

Crush estimate: ~6–10 vol pts for near-dated expirations if a headline move hits then mean reversion toward 30–34% in the following weeks (short-dated IV 25.5% vs 17d 33.7%).

Skew: Flow and premium skew are strongly call-biased (big call premium build at $200, $195, $190). Calls are expensive relative to puts on dollar premium flow metrics.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 recent quarters beat EPS est)

Avg move vs expected: Not explicitly quantified in provided fields, but consistent small positive EPS surprises (all beats) suggests tendency to modestly outperform expectations.

Directional bias: Leans bullish (all four recent quarters showed positive EPS surprise), available: true

Key Levels

1$195.00
2$190.00
3$185.00
4$200.00
5$202.50
6$205.00
7EM: $193.47-$199.55 (2d)
8EM: $190.29-$202.72 (1w)

Flow Highlights

Heavy call premium at $200.00: Call $231,029,940 / Put $12,169,482 / Net $218,860,458

Large bullish directional or vol buyers concentrated at $200 — dealers likely long call deltas and short calls, contributing to pinning pressure below $200 and raising upside gamma exposure.

Large premium at $195.00: Call $165,345,002 / Put $29,922,396 / Net $135,422,606

Concentrated activity around $195 consolidates a short-term pin; significant volume and OI at $195 (call OI 104,350) make $195 the primary short-term focal point.

Strategies

Long 195 straddle (near-term volatility play)
Buy 195C + 195P exp 2026-04-17 (use ask prices to enter).
Max loss: $6.50
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: ≈$188.50 / $201.50 (195 ± 6.5)
Trigger: Enter 1–2 days before high-probability flow events or when front IV hasn't ripped above mid-30s; use ask-side prices (195C ask 3.45 + 195P ask 3.05 ≈ $6.50 debit).
Concentrated pin at $195, heavy call flow and elevated multi-week IV create asymmetric payoff if NVDA breaks clear of the $195 hub.
Outperforms: Post-release move exceeds the 1-week EM (~±$6.21) or guidance triggers a >3% gap.
Underperforms: Stock pins at/near $195 and IV compresses post-event; or move is smaller than EM while IV collapses.
Sell short-dated iron condor (premium collect)
Sell 190/195 call spread and sell 180/185 put spread exp 2026-04-17 (or nearest weekly) — widths 5-5.
Credit: $1.20-$1.60
Max loss: $3.80
Max gain: $1.60
BE: Upside ≈ $196.60; Downside ≈ $178.40 (approx, based on net credit)
Trigger: Enter 2–3 days before event when bid/ask tightens and you can obtain at least 1.2 credit; reduce size if flow shows large OTM buys.
Pinning + GEX + heavy call OI make selling balanced premium around the $195 hub attractive, but cap losses tightly because gap risk is real.
Outperforms: NVDA stays within 1-week EM rails ($190.29–$202.72) and dealers' pinning/positive GEX dampen volatility.
Underperforms: Guidance or macro shocks produce >3% gap outside EM and cause severe IV repricing.
Directional call spread (bull skew with dealer pin)
Buy 195/200 call vertical exp 2026-04-17 (debit), or 195/205 for wider move if you prefer lower cost but more width.
Max loss: Premium paid (approx 195C ask 3.45 - 200C bid ~? — use market available prices)
Max gain: $5.00
BE: ≈195 + premium paid
Trigger: Enter when bullish flow intensifies or after a small pullback toward $195 (pin) to reduce cost basis.
Skew and premium flow are heavily call-biased; a defined-risk vertical captures upside while limiting vega exposure compared with a naked call.
Outperforms: Bullish guidance or momentum push that takes price through $200 (EM upper rails).
Underperforms: Stock grinds lower toward MP ($185–180) or IV collapses without a directional gap.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: NVDA can gap beyond the 1–3d EM (±$3.04 to ±$5.12); guidance surprises can blow past dealer pinning and rapidly erase premium.
!IV crush: Short-dated IV is low (1d ATM 25.5%); buying options now has less vega edge into near-term announcements, while selling premium risks sharp gap + reprice.
!Liquidity/flow: Very liquid at strikes near $185–$205 (large OI at $195/$200), but far OTM strikes have less consistent liquidity — prefer core strikes with tight bid/ask.
!Sizing: Given dealer GEX (+$948.0M) and heavy concentrated flows, size smaller than usual for directional debit plays and cut iron condor size to limit tail exposure.
!Pinning risk: Strong pin magnets at $195/$200 can cause mean-reversion around those strikes; short premium benefits if price is absorbed but loses big on a breakout.

What to Watch

?Price action relative to $195.00 pin (heavy GEX concentration +129,316,114 GEX at 195 in near-term chain).
?IV trajectory into the week: watch ATM IV 1d 25.5% → 3d 30.9% — rapid IV lift indicates directional buying and makes debit entries more expensive.
?Unusual flow at short-dated strikes: NVDA260415C00195000 (195C) volume and NVDA260415C00197500 activity — high early activity at 195/197.5.
?Large call premium at $200.00 and $195.00 (see Top Premium Flow).
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.