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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $194.83EOD only
Max Pain
$195.00
Next expiry Jul 6, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.02
2.1% from close
Price Gap
+0.17
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
5
Low premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 2, 2026 close
NVDA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 19, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for June 29, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

Strong bullish flow and 100% beat rate but high IV and $240 resistance cap upside.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.8% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Gamma pinning near $212-$218 and call OI wall at $240-$250 define range.
⚖️100% beat rate vs high IV suggests implied move may be conservative.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-20 (1 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (3d): ±$13.50 (6.1%)
  • 2026-05-26 (7d): ±$14.38 (6.5%)
  • 2026-05-27 (8d): ±$14.95 (6.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep contango: 6.1% to 6.8% over 3-8 days.

Crush estimate: Expected ~50% crush, but move may exceed IV.

Skew: Put skew elevated; puts at slight premium.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historically moves exceed implied by 30%.

Directional bias: Bullish bias post-earnings; few misses.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $207.11/$234.11; 1w $206.24/$234.99
2Max pain pins: $212 (2026-05-22); $218 (2026-05-26); $230 (2026-05-27)

Flow Highlights

Deep OTM call volume (345C, 350C) extremely high vol/oi.

Lottery ticket speculation; optimistic tail bets.

Put buying at 222.5-225 across expirations.

Hedging demand at key levels, supporting floor.

Strategies

Long strangle
Buy 2026-05-29 $212.50 put + buy $240.00 call
Debit: $5.96-$7.28
Max loss: $7.28
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 205.22 / 247.28
Trigger: Monitor for 50% gain or expiration; exit if IV collapses.
Wider strikes lower premium; NVDA's average move supports strangle.
Outperforms: Express edge via outsized move potential relative to implied crush.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!IV crush risk: move may not justify premium.
!Guidance miss could break support at $212.

What to Watch

?After-hours price and volume reaction.
?Datacenter revenue commentary.
?Stock vs $240 resistance.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.