thetaOwl
HomeOptionsNVDAReports

NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $199.00EOD only
Max Pain
$207.50
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.43
2.7% from close
Price Gap
+8.50
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
2
Low premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
NVDA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

NVDA earnings 62 days out; strong bullish flow, 100% beat rate; elevated near-term IV with large call buying.

Confidence:
4 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; -0.5 spot 3.3% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Unusual $160 put sweep implies hedging; call OI wall at $220-$250 caps upside.
🛡️Deep OTM put sweep ($160) suggests tail hedging amid bullish flow.
🔶Call OI wall at $220-$250 may stall rallies; resistance at $200.
📊100% beat rate supports bullish bias; spot below max pain.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$180.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 84,898 (8.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-26 (62 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (1d): ±$3.55 (1.8%)
  • 2026-06-29 (4d): ±$5.50 (2.8%)
  • 2026-07-01 (6d): ±$3.28 (1.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated (1d ±1.8%), back-end moderate; expected moves decay after initial.

Crush estimate: Moderate post-earnings crush (~50% IV drop) typical for high-beta tech.

Skew: Put skew elevated on deep OTM; call skew flat to slight positive.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 5/5 beats; avg move slightly above implied.

Directional bias: Bullish bias from consistent beats and call flow.

Key Levels

1$180.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $192.20/$199.29; 1w $192.47/$199.02
3Max pain pins: $202 (2026-06-26); $202 (2026-06-29); $200 (2026-07-01)

Flow Highlights

NVDA 2026-06-29 $160 Put: vol/OI 86.8x, premium for tail hedge.

Protective positioning 20% below spot ahead of earnings.

NVDA 2026-06-26 $197.5 Call: 137k vol, 38.7x vol/OI, aggressive bullish bet.

Short-dated call buying targeting immediate upside near resistance.

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-02 $190.00/$180.00 put wing and $202.50/$212.50 call wing
Credit: $2.55-$3.11
Max loss: $6.89
Max gain: $3.11
BE: 186.89 / 205.61
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or prior to earnings.
Defined risk captures range-bound view; supports at $180-$185 and resistance at $220-$250 limit upside.
Outperforms: Sell $190/$180 put spread and $202.50/$212.50 call spread.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-02 $202.50 call / buy 2026-08-21 $200.00 call
Debit: $8.26-$10.10
Max loss: $10.10
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll short call upon assignment risk; hold long call into earnings.
Bullish bias with lower cost; benefits from time decay in front short call.
Outperforms: Short near-term $202.50 call, long longer-term $200 call.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-02 $190.00 put + sell $202.50 call
Credit: $3.19-$3.90
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $3.90
BE: 186.10 / 206.40
Trigger: Close early on IV spike or set stop at loss threshold.
Highest premium capture but unlimited risk; suitable if confident in tight range.
Outperforms: Sell $190 put and $202.50 call.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Large put floor at $180-$185 if broken could accelerate selling.
!Call overwriting at $220-$250 may cap momentum.
!Gamma flip at $180 suggests dealer hedging could amplify moves.

What to Watch

?Spot reaction at $192.20 support / $199.29 resistance.
?Max pain at $202-$200 pins into expiry.
?Further unusual prints in deep OTM puts.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.