thetaOwl

NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $200.04EOD only
Max Pain
$210.00
Next expiry Jun 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.73
1.9% from close
Price Gap
+9.96
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
1
Low premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 23, 2026 close
NVDA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

NVDA far from earnings (63d). Near-term IV elevated with 0DTE activity. Flow bullish overall but spot below MP $202. Gamma risk at 185.

Confidence:
5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +0.5 spot 1.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Spot action near OPEX and upcoming weekly dynamics.
📊0DTE call volume surge at $197.5 and $200 strikes, vol/OI >20x.
🛡️Put floor $180-$185 with OI density; potential support.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$185.00Approx — based on put OI concentration of 68,402 (7.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-26 (63 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (2d): ±$5.43 (2.7%)
  • 2026-06-29 (5d): ±$6.77 (3.4%)
  • 2026-07-01 (7d): ±$8.47 (4.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated (2d IV ~16% implied move 2.7%); back-month relatively lower.

Crush estimate: N/A

Skew: Put skew steepened via floor at $180-$185.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Not available; 100% beat rate last 5 quarters.

Directional bias: Neutral to slightly bullish, consistent with flow.

Key Levels

1$185.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $193.57/$204.43; 1w $192.23/$205.77
3Max pain pins: $202 (2026-06-24); $208 (2026-06-26); $205 (2026-06-29)

Flow Highlights

Unusual call volume in 0DTE $197.50 and $200 strikes; massive vol/OI ratios up to 194x.

Aggressive positioning; likely tactical or closing trades.

Strategies

Short strangle
Sell 2026-07-02 $190.00 put + sell $210.00 call
Credit: $2.29-$2.79
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $2.79
BE: 187.21 / 212.79
Trigger: Adjust if spot nears 190 or 210; roll untested side.
Highest premium capture; support at 185 and call wall at 210 bound range.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call to profit from IV crush while stock stays neutral.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-02 $190.00/$187.50 put wing and $210.00/$215.00 call wing
Credit: $0.88-$1.08
Max loss: $3.92
Max gain: $1.08
BE: 188.92 / 211.08
Trigger: Let decay; close at 50% profit or if spot breaches short strikes.
Defined risk alternative with lower capital at risk but lower premium; suitable when tail risk is a concern.
Outperforms: Limited risk version of strangle using OTM wings to cap losses.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!0DTE gamma exposure may cause pin action near $198-$200.
!Spot below max pain $202 suggests bearish bias for expiration.
!Put OI concentration at $180-$185 provides strong floor.

What to Watch

?NVDA price vs $202 max pain today.
?Gamma flip level $185.
?Call OI wall at $210-$250.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.