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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $217.55EOD only
Max Pain
$212.50
Next expiry Aug 12, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.71
2.2% from close
Price Gap
-5.05
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
5
Low premium
P/C OI
0.84
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Aug 10, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Aug 10, 2026 close
NVDA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 26, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 26, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

NVDA 61 days from earnings, 100% beat rate, flow mixed, near-term pinning at $198-$200

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Unusual put buying at $170 and call buying at $207.5 highlight divergent positioning
📉Bearish: $170 put volume 69x OI suggests bearish positioning
⚠️Warning: $207.5 call vol 45x OI but 0.02 premium, likely worthless long
📈Bullish: Net premium +$77.6M, put/call volume ratio 0.67 favors calls

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$180.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 84,478 (6.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-26 (61 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-29 (3d): ±$3.97 (2.1%)
  • 2026-07-01 (5d): ±$6.24 (3.2%)
  • 2026-07-02 (6d): ±$7.20 (3.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Contango, near-term IV 22-30%, back-month elevated 40%+

Crush estimate: N/A (earnings 61 days out)

Skew: Put skew elevated at low strikes; call OI heavy at $220-$250

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 5/5 beats, avg absolute move ~5% vs ~4% expected

Directional bias: Bullish post-earnings but unreliable given far event

Key Levels

1$180.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $188.56/$196.50; 1w $186.29/$198.77
3Max pain pins: $198 (2026-06-26); $200 (2026-06-29); $200 (2026-07-01)

Flow Highlights

Unusual put buying NVDA 2026-07-31 $170 Put: 74k vol vs 1k OI

Large bearish hedge or speculation on a drop below $170 by late July

Unusual call buying NVDA 2026-06-29 $207.5 Call: 163k vol vs 3.6k OI

Speculative OTM call buying, likely delta hedging or short squeeze bet

Strategies

Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-10 $190.00/$185.00 put wing and $200.00/$205.00 call wing
Credit: $2.49-$3.05
Max loss: $1.95
Max gain: $3.05
BE: 186.95 / 203.05
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or before week of earnings; adjust if price breaks either short strike.
Captures pinning at max pain ($198-$200) with short vega and theta; tight wings minimize risk.
Outperforms: Sell put spread 190/185 and call spread 200/205 for net credit; benefits from range-bound price action.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Put Calendar
Sell 2026-07-17 $190.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $190.00 put
Debit: $3.94-$4.81
Max loss: $4.81
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Monitor pin risk; close if NVDA approaches $181.6 support. Roll forward if volatility spikes.
Exploits contango term structure; near-term premium decay outstrips long put theta.
Outperforms: Short July 190 put, long Aug 190 put; profits if NVDA stays above $190 near July expiry.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-07-10 $200.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $200.00 call
Debit: $5.68-$6.94
Max loss: $6.94
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain; watch for break above $200. Adjust strikes if price trends higher.
Takes advantage of elevated back-month IV; short call decays faster in contango.
Outperforms: Short July 200 call, long Aug 200 call; profitable if NVDA stays below $200 near July expiration.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long strangle
Buy 2026-10-16 $180.00 put + buy $195.00 call
Debit: $25.31-$30.94
Max loss: $30.94
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 149.06 / 225.94
Alternative to straddle lowering premium while capturing tail moves; later expiration allows more time for volatility expansion.
Outperforms: OTM strangle in next month's cycle at lower cost; targets tail risk premium with additional theta management vs straddle.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Spot below max pain ($198-200) could invite pinning
!Gamma flip at $180 may accelerate declines if broken
!VIX >18 indicates broad market volatility spillover
!Large call OI at $220-$250 caps upside

What to Watch

?Max pain pins at $198 (Jun26), $200 (Jun29/Jul1)
?Support at $181.6 (EM guardrail) and $180 (put floor)
?Resistance at $197.5, $200, and $203.45
?Call OI wall at $220-$250
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 26, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.