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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $192.53EOD only
Max Pain
$200.00
Next expiry Jun 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.97
2.1% from close
Price Gap
+7.47
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
6
Low premium
P/C OI
0.80
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 26, 2026 close
NVDA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

NVDA 58 days to earnings, high confidence setup with strong bullish flow and historical beat rate. IV elevated near-term, gamma pinning near $192.50. Expect continued bullish drift.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.3% from MP; +1 VIX 18
Most important: Massive 0DTE call buying at $192.50 and $195 strikes indicates aggressive bullish positioning. Gamma pinning supports price stability into expiration.
📈0DTE call buying at $192.50 and $195 suggests bullish conviction into expiration.
⚠️Put IV spiked to 86% on 2dte, indicating hedging demand at $160.
🔑Gamma pinning at $192.50 aligns with max pain; support at $190.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$180.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 83,325 (7.7% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-26 (58 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-07-01 (2d): ±$4.50 (2.3%)
  • 2026-07-02 (3d): ±$5.55 (2.8%)
  • 2026-07-06 (7d): ±$6.85 (3.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-dated IV elevated (0DTE calls ~27%, puts 12%; 2dte puts ~86%, calls ~39-60%). Backwardation likely.

Crush estimate: Expected move ~2.3-2.8% daily; post-event crush could be 50-70% of elevated near-term IV.

Skew: Put skew steep on 2dte (IV 86% vs 39% for calls), reflecting downside fear despite bullish flow.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Beat rate 100% (5/5); historical moves often exceed expected range by 1-2%.

Directional bias: Bullish; consistent positive surprises and strong flow align with upward bias.

Key Levels

1$180.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $190.48/$199.47; 1w $188.12/$201.82
3Max pain pins: $198 (2026-06-29); $192 (2026-07-01); $200 (2026-07-02)

Flow Highlights

Unusual 0DTE call sweep: $192.50 and $195 calls traded >20x OI with high volume.

Aggressive bullish bet targeting expiry pinning; likely institutional positioning.

Net premium $374M positive, put/call volume ratio 0.57.

Overwhelming call buying, confirming bullish sentiment and potential gamma squeeze.

Strategies

High-Conviction Straddle
Buy 2026-09-18 $200.00 put + buy $200.00 call
Debit: $27.47-$33.58
Max loss: $33.58
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 166.42 / 233.58
Trigger: Exit pre-earnings or hold through event; target 150% of premium paid.
Directly captures expected beat-driven move; historical moves exceed straddle cost.
Outperforms: Buys both sides at-the-money to profit from large post-earnings swing.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.
Wide Strangle Alternative
Buy 2026-09-18 $185.00 put + buy $215.00 call
Debit: $16.18-$19.77
Max loss: $19.77
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 165.23 / 234.77
Trigger: Monitor gamma risk; exit if IV collapses or price stabilizes before event.
Lower cost than straddle with similar upside if move is extreme; out-of-the-money reduces risk.
Outperforms: Out-of-the-money options to profit from above-expected move at lower premium.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip at $180 could accelerate downside if breached.
!IV crush post-event may significantly reduce option premiums.
!Market-wide volatility (VIX 18) adds tail risk to bullish bets.

What to Watch

?Price action relative to $190 and $200 guardrails.
?Open interest changes at $192.50 and $195 strikes.
?Volume on 2dte $180 puts and $212.50 calls for skew shifts.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.