Earnings Verdict
NVDA earnings far out; high beat rate, bullish flow, but no near-term catalyst.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Next earnings 2026-08-26; no near-term catalyst.
⚠️Far OTM puts (120p, 105p) with high vol/oi indicate tail hedging
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 102,910 (2.3% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-08-26 (70 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-06-18 (1d): ±$3.62 (1.8%)
- 2026-06-22 (5d): ±$5.60 (2.7%)
- 2026-06-24 (7d): ±$7.67 (3.8%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Contango, front low IV ~13%, back months higher
Crush estimate: N/A for near term; earnings far
Skew: Put skew from tail hedging (120p, 105p)
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: 4/5 beats, avg move not provided
Directional bias: Bullish, 100% beat rate
Key Levels
1$200.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $201.02/$208.27; 1w $199.05/$210.25
3Max pain pins: $208 (2026-06-17); $186 (2026-06-18); $208 (2026-06-22)
Flow Highlights
Unusual far OTM put activity (120p, 105p) with high vol/oi
Tail hedge or speculative bearish bet
Strategies
Short Strangle on NVDA
Sell 2026-07-17 $200.00 put + sell $215.00 call
Trigger: Exit if NVDA breaches 200 or 215; 50% profit target.
No near-term catalyst and low IV (~13%) make theta decay likely; support/resistance at 200/215.
Outperforms: Sells a put and call to collect premium, betting NVDA stays within 200-215 by expiry.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Risk Assessment
!Gamma flip at ~$200; below that, potential acceleration
!Call wall $220-250 caps rally
What to Watch
?Unusual 120p/105p activity for tail risk signal
?Long-dated options open interest changes