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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $200.75EOD only
Max Pain
$195.00
Next expiry Aug 3, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.31
2.1% from close
Price Gap
-5.75
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
6
Low premium
P/C OI
0.81
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 31, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 31, 2026 close
NVDA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 17, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

NVDA earnings far out; high beat rate, bullish flow, but no near-term catalyst.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Next earnings 2026-08-26; no near-term catalyst.
⚠️Far OTM puts (120p, 105p) with high vol/oi indicate tail hedging

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 102,910 (2.3% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-26 (70 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-18 (1d): ±$3.62 (1.8%)
  • 2026-06-22 (5d): ±$5.60 (2.7%)
  • 2026-06-24 (7d): ±$7.67 (3.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Contango, front low IV ~13%, back months higher

Crush estimate: N/A for near term; earnings far

Skew: Put skew from tail hedging (120p, 105p)

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: 4/5 beats, avg move not provided

Directional bias: Bullish, 100% beat rate

Key Levels

1$200.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $201.02/$208.27; 1w $199.05/$210.25
3Max pain pins: $208 (2026-06-17); $186 (2026-06-18); $208 (2026-06-22)

Flow Highlights

Unusual far OTM put activity (120p, 105p) with high vol/oi

Tail hedge or speculative bearish bet

Strategies

Short Strangle on NVDA
Sell 2026-07-17 $200.00 put + sell $215.00 call
Credit: $9.68-$11.83
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $11.83
BE: 188.17 / 226.83
Trigger: Exit if NVDA breaches 200 or 215; 50% profit target.
No near-term catalyst and low IV (~13%) make theta decay likely; support/resistance at 200/215.
Outperforms: Sells a put and call to collect premium, betting NVDA stays within 200-215 by expiry.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip at ~$200; below that, potential acceleration
!Call wall $220-250 caps rally

What to Watch

?Unusual 120p/105p activity for tail risk signal
?Long-dated options open interest changes
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.