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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $219.51EOD only
Max Pain
$215.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.50
2.0% from close
Price Gap
-4.51
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
40
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.80
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
NVDA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

NVDA poised for bullish move with strong gamma pinning and call flow, uncertainty around event date.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 VIX 17
Most important: Call OI wall $235-$250 and put floor $140 indicate upside bias; high IV crush risk post-event.
📈100% beat rate and strong call flow support bullish bias.
⚠️Deep OTM put volume signals tail risk hedging despite bullish flow.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (1d): ±$4.50 (2.0%)
  • 2026-05-26 (5d): ±$6.78 (3.1%)
  • 2026-05-27 (6d): ±$7.90 (3.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-term IV elevated, skew favors calls, term structure normal across expiries.

Crush estimate: Estimated 30-40% IV crush post-event.

Skew: Put skew elevated at deep OTM strikes (e.g., $120 Put IV 93%) but minimal near money.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Avg move +3.2% vs expected ±2.0% (5 quarters).

Directional bias: Bullish, 100% beat rate with positive post-earnings drift.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $215.01/$224.00; 1w $212.73/$226.28
2Max pain pins: $215 (2026-05-22); $220 (2026-05-26); $225 (2026-05-27)

Flow Highlights

Large put volume at $217.5 (2026-05-22): 89k vol vs 9.4k OI, near max pain.

Hedging or pinning around $215-$220, limiting downside.

Large call volume at $222.5 (2026-05-22): 136k vol vs 16k OI, near resistance.

Bullish flow targeting $222.5-$225 area.

Strategies

Bull Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-05-29 $227.50 call / buy 2026-06-18 $235.00 call
Debit: $1.68-$2.05
Max loss: $2.05
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if stock breaches $215 invalidation; roll if short strike tested.
Capitalizes on bullish bias & high short-term IV; defined risk, crush-resistant.
Outperforms: Sell near-term call, buy later expiry to benefit from time decay and IV skew.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long Straddle
Buy 2026-06-05 $220.00 put + buy $220.00 call
Debit: $12.65-$15.46
Max loss: $15.46
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 204.54 / 235.46
Trigger: Sell half on +50% gain; cut losses if stock stays near $220 post-event.
Captures large move in either direction; NVDA avg +3.2% post-earnings.
Outperforms: Buy ATM put & call to profit from volatility expansion beyond premium paid.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-06-05 $210.00 put + buy $230.00 call
Debit: $5.74-$7.01
Max loss: $7.01
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 202.99 / 237.01
Trigger: Monitor IV crush; exit if move doesn't materialize within 1-2 days post-event.
Cheaper than straddle, but still profits from large move; wider strikes align with avg move.
Outperforms: Buy OTM put and call to benefit from price swing beyond break-even points.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Iron condor
Sell 2026-05-29 $212.50/$205.00 put wing and $227.50/$237.50 call wing
Credit: $2.54-$3.11
Max loss: $6.89
Max gain: $3.11
BE: 209.39 / 230.61
IV elevated, stock pinned near 220, high OI at strikes, range expected.
Outperforms: Collect premium from range-bound conditions with defined risk wings.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Event date uncertainty; potential IV crush post-event.
!Deep OTM put activity suggests tail risk hedging.
!Overnight gap risk high given elevated VIX (16.76).

What to Watch

?Max pain pin $215 (2026-05-22); EM guardrails $215.01-$224.00 (2d).
?Large OI at $222.5 Call and $217.5 Put for expiry pinning.
?Structural resistance $235-$250 call wall; support $140 put floor.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.