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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $202.06EOD only
Max Pain
$195.00
Next expiry Apr 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.12
2.0% from close
Price Gap
-7.06
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
33
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.86
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 20, 2026 close
NVDA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 21, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

High probability of muted directional move with pinning into earnings; downside support likely from concentrated short-dated sold puts (dealer short-delta hedging).

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 20; override: Concentrated short-dated sold-put OI + call flow creating gamma pin near $200
Most important: Gamma pinning near $200 driven by concentrated short-dated sold puts and call flow, compressing realized move vs IV
📌Pinning/support: heavy short-dated sold puts near $200 creating dealer short-delta
⚖️Flow split: front-week put-selling vs longer-dated call demand lifting May IV

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$140.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 82,624 (30.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-20 (29 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-22 (1d): ±$2.98 (1.5%)
  • 2026-04-24 (3d): ±$5.34 (2.7%)
  • 2026-04-27 (6d): ±$6.45 (3.2%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week elevated (~25–28%) vs richer near-term monthly (~32–40%), steep into event

Crush estimate: Moderate post-print crush (~30–40% of front-week IV)

Skew: Short-dated put-heavy OI creating elevated put skew at strikes near $200; longer-dated call demand lifts May IV

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical realized moves have tended to be smaller than IV-implied

Directional bias: Slightly bullish-to-neutral given consistent beats and put-selling flow

Key Levels

1$140.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $196.90/$202.87; 1w $193.43/$206.33
3Max pain pins: $198 (2026-04-22); $190 (2026-04-24); $200 (2026-04-27)

Flow Highlights

Heavy short-dated activity centered 197.5–205 strikes

Concentrated gamma and sold-put OI near $200 increases pinning/support risk

Large prints: clustered $200 puts (likely sold) and $205 calls with May call demand

Dealer hedging of sold puts and call selling/buying compresses spot movement pre-earnings

Strategies

Iron condor around $200
Sell 2026-05-22 $190.00/$180.00 put wing and $215.00/$225.00 call wing
Credit: $4.01-$4.91
Max loss: $5.09
Max gain: $4.91
BE: 185.09 / 219.91
Trigger: Close or fly wings if price moves toward wing or IV fails to compress after print
Captures rich front-week premium with defined risk while gamma pinning makes large moves less likely
Outperforms: Sell balanced wings to collect crush and benefit from pinning; limited tail risk if pin breaks
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call diagonal (front short, back long)
Sell 2026-05-15 $210.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $213.00 call
Debit: $3.69-$4.51
Max loss: $4.51
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll short or buy back into runup >197.5 or if IV collapses early
Exploits front-month > back-month skew to harvest time decay and roll into post-crush
Outperforms: Short OTM front call, long further-dated call to retain upside exposure and limit front-week short risk
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Structured short strangle with numeric controls
Sell 2026-05-22 $190.00 put + sell $225.00 call
Credit: $6.50-$7.95
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $7.95
BE: 182.05 / 232.95
Trigger: Hard rules: max position size 2.5% portfolio; if underlying breaches a short strike or moves >$6 (≈3%) intraday, immediately buy protective 1.0Δ long (or convert to iron-condor by purchasing 25Δ wings) and reduce size by 50%; close if IV rises >20% vs entry or loss >2× premium collected.
Higher premium while explicit deltas/hedges limit tail risk
Outperforms: Sell ~12Δ OTM put and ~12Δ OTM call (typically ~$188 put / $212 call on $200 underlying); prefer front-week when IV rank >50th percentile and IV >30%
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Surprise guidance or weak beat can overwhelm pinning and trigger gap down
!Macro/SPX gap could reprice IV and skew quickly
!Post-crush liquidity thin in off‑peak strikes

What to Watch

?Price vs $200 max-pain/gamma zone and gamma flip near $200
?Front-week IV moves and follow-through of large prints
?Earnings beat vs guidance and management tone
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 21, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.