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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $201.68EOD only
Max Pain
$192.50
Next expiry Apr 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.23
0.6% from close
Price Gap
-9.18
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.86
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 17, 2026 close
NVDA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

High-confidence bullish pinning into earnings with elevated call flow and positive GEX alignment.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Flow and GEX suggest pinning ~200 with compressed IV ahead of earnings.
📌Pinning pressure concentrated at ~$198–202 from heavy call flow
⚠️Front-week IV elevated; expect meaningful crush if no surprise

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-20 (30 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-22 (2d): ±$4.12 (2.0%)
  • 2026-04-24 (4d): ±$6.02 (3.0%)
  • 2026-04-27 (7d): ±$7.36 (3.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-week expirations (e.g., 4/22) show elevated IV (~28–35%); same-day expirations (e.g., 4/20) are markedly compressed (~10–15%).

Crush estimate: Moderate post-event crush for front-week vols; same-day expiries already priced low so smaller absolute move.

Skew: Put skew steep into 4/22 and 4/24; calls dominate immediate flow at 197.5–202.5 strikes.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historically realized moves have trended smaller than model-implied; sample small.

Directional bias: Upside/pinning bias present, but note beat-rate sample is only 4 events (4/4) — informative but limited.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $197.94/$206.18; 1w $194.70/$209.42
2Max pain pins: $198 (2026-04-20); $195 (2026-04-22); $190 (2026-04-24)

Flow Highlights

Large same-day and 2d call prints at 197.5–202.5

Short-term call demand anchoring spot near $198–202 (pinning)

Net premium strongly positive, put_call_oi <1

Dealer gamma positive; reduced downside hedging increases pinning likelihood

Strategies

Call calendar
Sell 2026-05-15 $200.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $200.00 call
Debit: $5.09-$6.22
Max loss: $6.22
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close or roll short before/after print; buy back if spot moves >2.5% or IV collapses.
Sell rich front-month IV, keep back-month upside optionality into expected pinning.
Outperforms: Capture front-week decay vs back-month to monetize compressed same-day IV while retaining upside exposure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Put diagonal
Sell 2026-05-15 $190.00 put / buy 2026-06-18 $189.00 put
Debit: $3.60-$4.41
Max loss: $4.41
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close/roll short if price breaches 197.5 or put IV spikes; hold long for post-crush protection.
Collect near-term put decay if pinning holds while preserving longer-dated protection.
Outperforms: Short May put vs long June put to harvest front-vs-back term-structure and limit downside risk.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-05-15 $190.00 put + sell $205.00 call
Credit: $7.98-$9.76
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $9.76
BE: 180.24 / 214.76
Trigger: Prefer close/hedge before print; tighten if price nears strikes or flow flips.
Largest immediate credit but unlimited call risk and tail-gap exposure around earnings.
Outperforms: Sell wide short put and call to collect elevated front-term IV ahead of print; reliant on pinning.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Event risk: beat/miss will flip IV and spot quickly
!Tail risk: large gap moves possible despite pinning
!Liquidity risk: heavy volume may widen spreads around prints

What to Watch

?Price reaction around $197–202 (max pain pins)
?IV moves in front-week (4/22) vs same-day (4/20) expiries
?Continuity of unusual prints and dealer hedging flows pre-close
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.