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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $215.33EOD only
Max Pain
$220.00
Next expiry May 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.51
2.1% from close
Price Gap
+4.67
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
43
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.80
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
NVDA Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

NVDA is in a pinning regime (GEX +$798.3M) with bullish flow and spot trading above max pain. Best near-term play is premium selling into pin magnets (targeting the $182.50–$185.00 cluster) or a defined-risk upside debit spread if you want asymmetry. Key risk: gap risk from fundamentals or macro that overwhelms dealer pinning and pushes price beyond the tight EM guardrails ($181.52–$186.31 over next 2 days).

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.1% from MP
Most important: Dealer positioning (GEX +$798.3M) centered at $182.50/$185.00 — watch price behaviour around those pin magnets
📅Confirmed earnings date 2026-05-20 (41 days out) — near-term option activity is primarily dealer/flow driven, not imminent company event.
📌Dealer GEX concentrated at $182.50 (+$128.1M) and $185.00 (+$131.7M) — expect pinning pressure there into short-dated expiries.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$140.00 — Gamma flip and deep put concentration around ~$140 (84,937 put OI, 23.9% below spot) — structural downside protection for dealers but outside ±10% band

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-20 (41 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-10 (1d): $181.52 - $186.31 (±$2.40, 1.3%)
  • 2026-04-15 (6d): $178.74 - $189.08 (±$5.17, 2.8%)
  • 2026-04-24 (15d): $174.84 - $192.99 (±$9.07, 4.9%)
  • Note: Formal earnings event is 2026-05-20 (41 days). Near-term EMs above are relevant for options expirations and reflect dealer pinning risk in the next 2–15 days.

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term ATM IVs are lower (1d 29.4%, 4d 23.9%, 6d 27.4%) then rise into the May expirations (22–43d: ~32–38%), with spot-average IV 43.3%. The short-dated curve is flat-to-cheap relative to medium-dated tenors.

Crush estimate: Modest — for any surprise event within the next few days, expect a post-release IV reversion of ~5–8 vol pts toward the 25–33% band (short-dated IV already subdued).

Skew: Put/call skew is mildly put-cheap (P/C OI 0.89, P/C vol 0.63) but concentrated put OI exists at deep strikes; near-term puts at $180–$175 carry visible OI and unusual activity.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters: 2025-04-30, 2025-07-31, 2025-10-31, 2026-01-31 all beat estimates)

Avg move vs expected: Not provided in pre-computed fields

Directional bias: Tends to beat estimates; this supports a skew toward upside in flow and dealer positions

Key Levels

1$175.00 (Max pain: multiple expirations including 2026-04-10/04-15/04-17)
2$180.00 (Max pain / EM guardrail: 1w guardrail $178.74/$189.08 includes $180; recurring max pain)
3$182.50/$185.00 (GEX concentration pin magnets: +$128.1M at $182.50 and +$131.7M at $185.00; near-term OI clusters at these strikes)
4$195-$200 (Call OI wall: structural call interest at $195-$200 within ~+6%-+8.7% of spot)

Flow Highlights

Large premium flow into $185.00 and $182.50 strikes (Top premium flow: $185.00 calls $55,174,930 / puts $19,784,581 net $35,390,350; $182.50 calls $33,282,340 / puts $9,724,988 net $23,557,352).

Substantial call buying concentrated at the $182.50–$185.00 cluster — aligns with bullish flow and supports dealer hedging that pins price there.

Unusual activity: heavy short-dated put volume at $182.50 and $180.00 (NVDA260410P00182500 Vol=66,089 OI=6,046; NVDA260410P00180000 Vol=84,970 OI=12,823).

Blocks of short-dated puts suggest structured sellers/flows willing to collect premium into near-term expiries — increases pinning pressure into the $180–$183 area.

Strategies

Short iron condor (near-term pin capture)
Sell 182.50/177.50 put vertical and sell 185.00/190.00 call vertical exp 2026-04-15
Credit: $1.20-$1.70
Max loss: $3.80
Max gain: $1.70
BE: Lower BE: 181.30; Upper BE: 186.70
Trigger: Enter 1–3 days before target expiration if spot stays between $181–$186 and IV remains near-term subdued
Dealer GEX +$798.3M concentrated at $182.50/$185.00 plus heavy call buying supports a selling premium bias; defined-risk structure limits gap exposure.
Outperforms: Stock trades inside the EM guardrails ($178.74–$189.08) and pins near the $182.50–$185.00 GEX cluster
Underperforms: A gap move or catalyst pushes price outside the iron condor wings (>±EM) at open
Long straddle-lite (debit, asymmetric cost control)
Buy 185 call and buy 185 put exp 2026-04-15 (closest available straddle around spot)
Debit: $3.50-$4.00
Max loss: $4.00
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Approx 185 ± cost (e.g., if cost $3.75 then BE 181.25 / 188.75)
Trigger: Enter 1 day before expiry if you expect a directional beat or guidance shock and short-dated IV hasn't spiked >40%
Straddle captures outsized moves; use 185 strikes to align with large liquidity and pin cluster.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds the short-term EM (~±$5.17 to the 6d band) and IV rises or stays elevated
Underperforms: Stock pins at $182.50–$185.00 and IV collapses after a non-event
Bull call vertical (asymmetric upside capture)
Buy 185/195 call spread exp 2026-05-01
Debit: $3.00-$4.50
Max loss: $4.50
Max gain: $6.50
BE: $188.00
Trigger: Enter when you expect a beat or stronger-than-expected guidance into late-April/May and want defined risk
Concentrated call demand at $195-$200 suggests a logical target; spread reduces cost vs outright calls while expressing bullish bias into the May earnings date.
Outperforms: Material upside (>~+3%–6% from spot) into the 195 area ahead of or into May earnings
Underperforms: Price stagnates inside the $182–$186 pin range

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EMs for near-term expirations are small (1–4%); a macro/corporate catalyst could still gap NVDA outside EM and blow up short premium positions.
!IV crush / term risk: Short-dated IVs are already subdued (1d ATM 29.4%), so selling premium captures limited edge; straddles rely on IV staying elevated into a realized move.
!Liquidity / execution: Liquidity is deep at 182.50–185.00 and at 190/195/200 strikes, but wide/depth thinness appears on some strikes (very wide mid/asks on deep ITM/OTM strikes). Use limit fills and size appropriately.
!Sizing: Given dealer GEX +$798.3M and concentrated pinning, size short premium positions smaller than standard to absorb rare gap events; prefer defined-risk iron structures.

What to Watch

?Price action around $182.50 and $185.00 (major GEX pin magnets)
?Short-dated volume in $180/$182.50 puts (NVDA260410P00180000, NVDA260410P00182500) — heavy print indicates structured selling
?IV trajectory into late April and early May (watch ATM IV rising toward mid-30s into May expirations)
?Unusual flow into $195–$200 calls (call OI wall) that could shift resistance dynamics
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.