Home Options NVDAReports

NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $215.33EOD only

Max Pain

$220.00

Next expiry May 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.51

2.1% from close

Price Gap

+4.67

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.80

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

NVDA Earnings Report

Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

NVDA is in a pinning regime with heavy dealer long-gamma (GEX +$422.8M) and max pain at $175 across the next several expirations. IV is elevated near very short-dated expirations (1d ATM 47.4%) but the term structure drops materially out a few days — creating a clear crush target. Best single strategy for most traders here is an IV-crush play (buy volatility into the event then sell into the post-event IV pop) or a defined-risk credit (iron) using the strong pin levels as a cushion. Key risk: an earnings or guidance surprise large enough to break the heavy call OI wall ($190-$200) that would overwhelm dealer pinning and produce a large gap beyond the EM rails.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.8% from MP

Most important: Monitor IV term-structure into the May earnings (sharp front-end skew; front-week expirations already pricing event) — IV can compress ~13 vol points when the short-dated concavity resolves.

📅Earnings date listed as 2026-05-20 (TBD) — next confirmed event is >40 days out; many front-week options are already concentrating hedges.

📌Max pain pinned at $175 across many expirations — dealer flows and GEX (+$422.8M) favor pin behavior near $175-$180 in the absence of a large surprise.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Flow Regime

Mixed

Spot vs MP

Above

Gamma flip: ~$140.00 — Gamma flip near $140 (put OI concentration 91,662; ~21.4% below spot). Below $140 dealers become short-gamma and would amplify moves.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-20 (TBD) (43 days)explicit

Expected moves:

2026-04-08 (1d): ±$3.53 (2.0%) [$174.58 - $181.63]
2026-04-13 (6d): ±$6.31 (3.5%) [$171.79 - $184.42]
2026-04-20 (13d): ±$8.95 (5.0%) [$169.15 - $187.05]
2026-05-22 (45d): ±$20.43 (11.5%) [$157.68 - $198.53]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp front-end skew: 1d ATM 47.4% falling to 42.5% (3d) then to 33.8% (6d) — short-dated expirations are pricing concentrated event risk while multi-week expirations show lower IV.

Crush estimate: ~13 vol pts (front-day 47.4% -> mid-term ~33.8%) — expect most post-event compression in the front week

Skew: Puts are relatively richer at very short-dates (some short-dated put IVs >60% in unusual activity), while calls show bulk OI/flow from $175-$200, concentrating dealer hedging on the upside.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 recent quarters showed EPS above estimates: 2026-01-31, 2025-10-31, 2025-07-31, 2025-04-30)

Avg move vs expected: Historical quarter list shows consistent beats but move magnitudes not provided in dataset; tendency is modest beats rather than extreme gaps based on the sample

Directional bias: Tendency toward modest upside surprises (all recorded surprises positive)

Key Levels

1$175.00 (max pain & listed MP pins)

2$172.50 (GEX / put OI cluster; near-term pin support)

3$170.00 (put OI cluster / EM lower guardrail)

4$182.50 (near-term call OI cluster / pin magnet at +2.5%)

5$185.00 (call OI concentration and EM upper guardrail)

6$190.00 (structural call OI wall; heavy resistance)

Flow Highlights

Net premium flow heavily skewed to the $180 strikes: Call $39,391,774 vs Put $9,159,741 (Net $30,232,034) concentrated at $180.

Large buyer demand at $180 calls suggests bullish positioning/hedged exposure targeting the $180 area — dealers will hedge and create pinning pressure near $180-$182.5.

Unusual short-dated buying into 2026-04-08: $177.50C Vol=66,409 (OTM/ITM depending on timing) and $175.00C Vol=41,472 — heavy activity in the front-week calls.

Heavy front-week call activity is inflating front IV and concentrating short-dated dealer deltas; front-week expirations are primed for IV compression when those flows settle.

Strategies

Long straddle (earnings post-expiry, volatility play)

Buy 178.00 straddle exp 2026-05-22 (buy 178C + buy 178P) — strikes available in chain

Debit: $19.50-$22.00

Max loss: $22.00

Max gain: Unlimited

BE: Approximately $157.68 / $198.53 (May 22 EM bounds)

Trigger: Enter 1-3 days before earnings if front IV has not already exploded beyond current term-structure kink

Front-end IV is elevated but term-structure shows a large front-to-near-mid drop; if you expect a genuine large surprise, buying the expected move protects vs unlimited upside while capturing a large gap move. Cost range reflects ATM implied move (~±$20 at 45d).

Outperforms: Actual move through either breakeven (>±11.5% by 45d) — strong directional/guidance surprise

Underperforms: Stock pins near $175-$182 and front-end IV collapses without large underlying move

Short iron condor (defined-risk premium sell)

Sell 172.50/170.00 put spread and sell 185.00/190.00 call spread exp 2026-05-22

Credit: $2.20-$3.40

Max loss: $7.80

Max gain: $3.40

BE: Lower: ~169.30; Upper: ~188.40 (approx based on credit)

Trigger: Enter 3-7 days before earnings if IV has re-priced to mid-term levels and you can collect credit >$2.00

Dealer pinning + concentrated GEX around $175-$182.5 makes premium selling attractive; defined risk limits tail exposure while harvesting high net premium (net premium $114.8M marketwide).

Outperforms: Stock remains inside the one-week to one-month EM guardrails (roughly $171.79 - $184.42) and IV compresses

Underperforms: Large gap through either wing (particularly a break above the $190 call wall) or sustained directional run

Call-debit spread (bullish defined-risk)

Buy 175.00C / sell 185.00C exp 2026-05-22

Debit: $4.50-$6.00

Max loss: $6.00

Max gain: $3.00

BE: Approximately 180.5 (entry depends on paid debit)

Trigger: Enter if you expect upside through the $182.50-$185.00 call OI zone and want defined risk

Targets upside while using the call OI wall as a guide — cheaper than a naked call and benefits if dealer hedging pushes price toward call walls.

Outperforms: Stock grinds higher through the concentrated call-OI zone ($182.50-$190) with limited IV crush

Underperforms: Stock pins at $175-$180 and IV collapses; also underperforms if upside gap exceeds the sold leg (above $185) rapidly

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Short-dated EMs show 1d ±$3.53 and 6d ±$6.31; a guidance-driven gap could materially exceed these rails and blow through the pinned ranges.

!IV crush impact: Front-week IV is ~47.4% and mid/near-term IV ~33–36% — buying front-week protection risks a ~13 vol-point post-event compression.

!Liquidity: Chain is liquid (Total OI 12,688,171; total volume 1,423,671) but some strikes/expirations (deep OTM calls/premium flows) show concentrated flow; execute in size-aware fills.

!Sizing: Given the potential for gapping outside EM and concentrated OI ($190-$200 call wall), keep position sizing conservative (<2-3% portfolio risk per trade) unless hedged.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into May earnings (watch ATM IV for May-dated expirations moving above 45%)

?Unusual front-week flow (4/08 and 4/10 activity) that could repriced dealer hedges before May

?Net premium & large call-wall behavior at $190-$200 — sustained buying there undermines pinning

?Changes in GEX concentration near $175-$182.5 (watch for rapid shifts)

How to Use These Reports

This earnings reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.