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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $220.61EOD only

Max Pain

$212.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$13.50

6.1% from close

Price Gap

-8.11

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.81

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

NVDA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 19, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias on strong dealer gamma pinning and bullish flow, but high VIX and proximity to resistance cap upside near-term; expect drift within EM guardrails.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, +1 GEX positive pinning, -0.5 spot 3.8% above MP, +0.5 VIX 18 => net 8.0.

Supports: GEX +538.1M bullish, DEX +434M shares, bullish flow regime, upside price ranges.
Conflicts: VIX 18 high, spot above max pain, resistance at 239-240, gamma flip absent.

🟢Massive $+538M GEX pinning supports near-term stability.

🔴VIX 18+ elevates risk; watch for vol expansion.

📊Spot above max pain but within EM guardrails: 207-234.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol as VIX 18 and regime flagged High; IV likely above typical range.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning regime with GEX +538.1M; positive gamma attracts spot to max pain clusters ($212, $218, $230).

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow with net premium positive; put/call ratio favors calls.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above max pain (likely ~220); 3.8% distance reduces near-term pinning pull but still within gamma influence.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained dealer gamma and bullish flow across multiple expiries (5/22-5/27) suggest multi-week directional drift.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$207.11$234.11

EM guardrails 207-234; spot near mid, bias upward on gamma support.

Next 1 week

$206.24$234.99

Max pain pinning at $218 and $230; upside drift toward resistance.

Next 2 weeks

$201.89$239.34

Wider range 202-239; structural dealer positioning supports gradual climb.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $212 (2026-05-22); $218 (2026-05-26); $230 (2026-05-27)

EM guardrails: 2d $207.11/$234.11; 1w $206.24/$234.99

Support: $212.50 · $201.89

Resistance: $239.34 · $240.00

Structural: Max pain pins: $212 (5/22), $218 (5/26), $230 (5/27). EM guardrails: 2d $207/$234, 1w $206/$235. Support $212.5, $202. Resistance $239, $240.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+538.1M

DEX: +434.0M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$538.1M (positive), DEX +434M shares (long delta). Gamma flip N/A; strong bullish dealer posture.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV is elevated relative to VIX (18), indicating rich premium; this supports premium-selling strategies but warns of potential vol contraction.

Term structure: Term structure likely upward-sloping as high vol persists; event kinks around 5/22 and 5/27 OPEX create volatility pockets.

Skew: Skew is likely put-skewed; a short put spread at $210 (near support) takes advantage of rich IV and gamma pinning.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium positive, net credit from selling (likely sold puts); P/C vol 0.52, puts dominate.

Directional prints: 93.8 call 345 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 37.3, last $0.04. Likely bought calls. Bullish flow with high IV. 54.4 put 222.5 ITM 2026-05-26 — Vol/OI 13.6, last $8.30. Likely sold puts. Bullish premium collection.

Unusual: 53.6 put 225 ITM 2026-05-27 — Vol/OI 8.4, last $9.55. Sold puts for premium. Unusual high volume. 94.9 call 350 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 5.3, last $0.04. Bought calls, high IV. Lotterylike speculation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot breaks below $207 support, negating bullish view.

!VIX spike above 20 triggers portfolio hedging and forced selling.

!Gamma flip if spot moves 30%+ below current; no put OI concentration currently.

!Resistance at $239-$240 caps upside if volume insufficient.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-18 $240.00/$250.00 call spread Why now: Bullish flow and positive gamma support drift; OTM call spread caps risk.	Upside capped at resistance; move below 215 invalidates.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-12 $205.00/$195.00 put spread Why now: High IV and bullish bias favor selling put premium at support; defined-risk below 215.	Sharp drop below 215 causes max loss.
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-06-18 $200.00 cash-secured put Why now: Willing to own NVDA at discount; high IV boosts premium.	Assignment risk if stock drops below strike.
Bullish risk reversal	Conditional	Buy 2026-06-26 $240.00 call / sell 2026-06-26 $200.00 put Why now: Upside flow and high IV make risk reversal attractive if willing to take assignment risk.	Uncapped downside if stock crashes below short put strike.

Top Plays

OTM Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-18 $240.00/$250.00 call spread

Captures upside with limited loss; high IV makes spread attractive

Why this play: Best fit: bullish drift with defined risk, capital efficient

Debit: $1.66-$2.03

Max loss: $2.03

BE: $242.03

Mgmt: Close at 80% max profit or near expiration

Low-risk bullish traders

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-06-12 $205.00/$195.00 put spread

Defined-risk bearish view with positive theta

Why this play: High IV favors selling put premium; support at 205

Credit: $1.81-$2.22

Max loss: $7.78

BE: $202.78

Mgmt: Manage if spot nears 212.5; close at 50% max profit

Income-focused traders

Cash-Secured Put

Sell 2026-06-18 $200.00 cash-secured put

Earn premium while setting buy price

Why this play: Willing to own NVDA at discount; high IV boosts premium

Credit: $3.15-$3.85

Max loss: $196.15

BE: $196.15

Mgmt: Roll if assigned or close early if IV drops

Long-term holders

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFNVDA holds above $212.5 support, trades $215-$230 pre-earnings → Enter 2026-06-18 $240/$250 call spread for $1.66-$2.03

IFNVDA above $215, VIX >18 → Sell 2026-06-12 $205/$195 put spread for $1.81-$2.22 credit

IFNVDA drops to $200 support → Sell 2026-06-18 $200 cash-secured put for $3.15-$3.85

Exit Triggers

EXITNVDA breaks below $212.5 → Close all bullish positions (s1-s4)

Tactical Summary

Bullish drift within $207-$234 guardrails ahead of 5/20 earnings. Support $212.5, resistance $240. High IV favors call spread or put credit spread. Invalidation below $212.5. Avoid overnight risk unless positioned.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 19, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.