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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $220.78EOD only

Max Pain

$212.50

Next expiry May 13, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.07

1.8% from close

Price Gap

-8.28

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.82

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 12, 2026 close

NVDA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

NVDA bullish setup from dealer gamma pinning, bullish flow, and elevated vol. Spot above max pain $215, GEX +$1.3B supports upward bias. Near-term ranges suggest grind higher, but gamma flip at $190 is key downside risk.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5, +2 GEX/flow alignment, +1 positive gamma pinning, -1 spot 5% above MP, +1 VIX 18. Net bullish score 8/10.

Supports: Bullish flow, $+1.3B GEX, positive gamma, spot above MP.
Conflicts: Spot 5% above MP, resistance $246, gamma flip $190 downside risk.

📈Bullish flow +$1.3B GEX supports upside

📍Spot above $215 max pain, pinning near ITM calls

⚠️Gamma flip at $190 could accelerate selling

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol vs typical; IV elevated but not panic.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma pinning near $215; strong dealer hedging.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net premium; call-skewed flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ~5% above max pain $215, bullish but pin risk.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Proximity to multiple expiry dates with high gamma concentration.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$218.82$232.84

Support $219, resistance $233; bullish bias

Next 1 week

$216.96$234.71

Expiry pinning $215-$235; gamma support

Next 2 weeks

$205.21$246.46

Wider range $205-$246; gamma flip zone below

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $215 (2026-05-13); $195 (2026-05-15); $205 (2026-05-18)

EM guardrails: 2d $218.82/$232.84; 1w $216.96/$234.71

Support: $215.00 · $205.21

Resistance: $246.46

Gamma flip: ~$190.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 88,570 (15.9% below spot)

Structural: Support $215 (max pain), $205 (gamma flip); Resistance $246; Guardrails 2d $219/$233, 1w $217/$235.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.3B

DEX: +518.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$190 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 88,570 (15.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$1.3B bullish; DEX +518.5M shares; gamma flip ~$190 from put OI concentration.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV rich relative to VIX 18; elevated premium.

Term structure: Front-month elevated due to event; likely contango.

Skew: Call skew favored; consider put credit spreads or call spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $1.67B bullish, P/C volume ratio 0.40 supports call dominance, though OI ratio 0.82 shows put interest.

Directional prints: 8.4 call 227.5 OTM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 29x, low IV 8.4%. Aggressive opening of OTM calls, likely bought for upside. 4.9 put 225 OTM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 452x, negligible premium. Likely sold for premium or hedging, but volume suggests opening. 50.5 call 265 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 109x, elevated IV. Long call opening, bullish on further upside.

Unusual: 4.9 put 225 OTM 2026-05-13 — Extreme vol/OI 452x, last 0.01. Massive put volume at deep OTM strike, likely sold for premium or closing. 10.4 put 227.5 ITM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 260x, high volume. Heavy put activity near spot, possibly hedging downside. 50.5 call 265 OTM 2026-06-12 — Vol/OI 109x, elevated IV. Unusual long call buying at high strike, confident bullish bet.

Risks & Catalysts

!Downside break of gamma flip $190

!Spot pullback to $215 max pain

!VIX spike expanding vol

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-29 $225.00/$240.00 call spread Why now: Defined-risk debit spread to capture upside with limited capital; expires after earnings to allow follow-through.	Downside break of $190 gamma flip or spot pullback below $215 max pain could cause loss.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-29 $230.00 call / sell 2026-05-29 $220.00 put Why now: Captures bullish momentum with low cost; earnings catalyst supports upward move; short put at support level.	Sharp downside below short put strike incurs assignment risk; unlimited downside on short put.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-05-29 $225.00/$240.00 call spread

Buy $225/$240 call spread to profit from bullish move with capped loss.

Why this play: Defined risk, captures upside with limited capital, ideal for earnings catalyst.

Debit: $5.15-$6.30

Max loss: $6.30

BE: $231.30

Mgmt: Exit at 50% loss or hold through earnings; take profit at $240.

Traders seeking limited risk with upside exposure.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-05-29 $230.00 call / sell 2026-05-29 $220.00 put

Buy $230 call and sell $220 put to finance upside with support from bullish flow.

Why this play: Unlimited upside with low cost, but short put adds risk under $215.

Debit: $1.22-$1.49

Max loss: $220.00

BE: $220.00

Mgmt: Monitor $215 support; close if spot breaks below.

Aggressive traders comfortable with short put risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFNVDA holds above $215 support with bullish flow → Buy 2026-05-29 $225/$240 call spread (entry range $5.15-$6.30)

IFNVDA sustains above $220 with momentum → Buy 2026-05-29 $230 call / sell $220 put risk reversal (credit $1.22-$1.49)

Exit Triggers

EXITNVDA closes below $215 → Close both positions to limit losses at invalidation level

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias into NVDA earnings (5/20). Key support $215 (max pain), resistance $246. Prefer bull call spread for defined risk; risk reversal for aggressive. Exit if spot breaks $215. Target $240+.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.