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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $202.06EOD only

Max Pain

$195.00

Next expiry Apr 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$4.12

2.0% from close

Price Gap

-7.06

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.86

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Apr 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 20, 2026 close

NVDA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 21, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Mildly bullish but tethered: dealers’ long-gamma near $198–$202 likely pins spot short-term; upside toward $210 is conditional — requires sustained, large net call buying or short-covering that overwhelms dealer hedging over several expiries.

Confidence:

9 / 10

High confidence from +$765M GEX, concentrated OI/pins and buy-side flow; tempered by gamma tether and normal IV.

Supports: + $765M GEX; concentrated pin OI at $198; persistent buy-side call flow.
Conflicts: Gamma tether near spot limits sharp upside; meaningful extension needs outsized flow or short squeeze.

📌Pin cluster at $198 with near-term tethering into 4/22–4/27 expiries

🟢+$765M GEX implies dealers buying gamma on dips, supporting spot

⚠️Upside to $210 only if sustained large call demand/short-covering overwhelms dealer hedges

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV is normal vs VIX; not suppressing directional moves but limits extreme spikes.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning regime: dealers long gamma around $198–$202 providing dip absorption; gamma flip remains far lower (~$140).

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net buy-side premium and concentrated call flow support higher levels but current flow size only pins rather than unpins.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot ~1.2% above midpoint, reinforcing pin around $198–$202 unless outsized flows occur.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained dealer GEX and repeated OI concentration across near expiries indicate multi-week anchoring; break to higher structural levels requires persistent elevated call demand or a short-covering cascade.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$196.90$202.87

Pinning expected around $198–$202; range ~$196.9–$202.9.

Next 1 week

$193.43$206.33

Holds near pins unless a spike in call buying or news triggers short-covering.

Next 2 weeks

$189.33$210.43

Extension toward $210 possible only with sustained, outsized call flow/short squeeze; otherwise remains capped near $202–$206.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $198 (2026-04-22); $190 (2026-04-24); $200 (2026-04-27)

EM guardrails: 2d $196.90/$202.87; 1w $193.43/$206.33

Support: $197.50 · $189.33

Resistance: $200.00 · $202.50 · $210.43

Gamma flip: ~$140.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 82,624 (30.0% below spot)

Structural: EM guardrails 2d $196.90/$202.87; 1w $193.43/$206.33. Structural support: $197.5 and $189.33. Resistance: $200, $202.5, $210.43. Max pain pins: $198 (4/22), $190 (4/24), $200 (4/27).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+765.1M

DEX: +407.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$140 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 82,624 (30.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$765.1M; DEX +407.1M shares. Dealers net long gamma near spot providing dip absorption; gamma flip ~ $140 (put OI concentrated ~30% below spot), so meaningful unpinning needs outsized external flow.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Ticker IV ~ in line with VIX (normal); neither strongly favors vol sell nor protective buying at current levels.

Term structure: Flat-to-slightly-backwardated near-dated curve with kinks at clustered expiries (4/22–4/27) where OI/pins concentrate.

Skew: Put skew concentrated below spot; actionable opportunity: sell very short-dated premium against expected pin support or buy protection if targeting tail below $190.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Premium-weighted call tilt: call option notional exceeds put notional, despite a sub-1 put/call volume ratio — overall premium bias toward calls.

Directional prints: 24.8 call 202.5 OTM 2026-04-22 — Very large Apr22 202.5 call block (133,988 vol, 8,568 OI). Flow ambiguous — aggressor (BTO/STO) unknown; interpreted as bullish exposure accumulation if buyer-initiated, or dealer sell if seller-initiated. 25.2 put 200 ITM 2026-04-22 — Massive Apr22 200 put activity (141,066 vol, 6,297 OI, vol/oi 22.4). Flow ambiguous — could be protective buys or sell-to-open; directional bearish read only if buyer-initiated. 25.9 call 205 OTM 2026-04-22 — Large Apr22 205 calls (99,513 vol, 17,056 OI). Flow ambiguous on aggressor; suggests upside interest if buyer-initiated, or risk transfer if sold.

Unusual: 25.2 put 200 ITM 2026-04-22 — Extremely high vol/oi (22.4) — notable concentration; sign of aggressive one-sided activity though aggressor unclear. 35.5 call 202.5 OTM 2026-05-08 — May08 202.5 call odd-lot with elevated vol/oi (~16) — longer-dated directional interest; flow ambiguous. 25 put 202.5 ITM 2026-04-22 — Apr22 202.5 puts (23,963 vol, 1,904 OI) — noticeable protective or selling activity; aggressor unknown.

Risks & Catalysts

!Sudden market selloff that overwhelms dealer hedges and breaks pins

!Break below $196.9 accelerating downside toward $189–$190

!Event-driven gap or short-covering spike that rapidly unpins and overshoots resistance

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-22 $200.00/$215.00 call spread Why now: Construct defined-risk bullish spread that benefits from controlled upside toward $210 while capping cost and gamma exposure; expiration on/after earnings to capture post-report follow-through.	Earnings gap or sudden selloff that breaks dealer pin and accelerates downside below ~196.9.
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-29 $195.00/$170.00 put spread Why now: Mildly bullish bias with dealer pin near $198–$202; sell short-dated puts against lower long to collect premium while capping risk; choose expirations ≥ earnings to avoid forced rollover if follow-through required.	Gap below ~$196.9 can accelerate losses; monitor gamma pinning and put flow.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-18 $205.00/$214.00 call spread Why now: Buy-call spread limits cost vs naked call; use a single expiration to capture multi-week follow-through without calendar timing risk.	Requires sustained call demand or short-covering; premium erosion if pinned.
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $200.00 cash-secured put Why now: If willing to own stock near $195–$200, sell puts expiring just after earnings to capture premium and avoid immediate expiry risk.	Downside gap to $189–$190; assignment risk if strong selloff.
Bullish risk reversal	Conditional	Buy 2026-06-18 $210.00 call / sell 2026-06-18 $194.00 put Why now: Long call financed by short put captures upside convexity if call demand continues; use expirations at/after earnings to keep exposure while potential pin dissolves.	Short put exposure on downside; event gap can overwhelm hedge.
Call diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-08 $205.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $220.00 call Why now: Dealer gamma concentrated near $198–$202; sell near-term call expiry around pin and buy farther-dated call to capture reversion or longer-term upside.	Early break before near-term expiry can hurt short leg; vega exposure if IV moves.

Top Plays

Defined-risk May bull call

Buy 2026-05-22 $200.00/$215.00 call spread

Buy May call spread to benefit if short-term call demand or short-covering pushes spot toward $210 while limiting downside exposure.

Why this play: Balances upside capture through expected pin window with capped cost and gamma.

Debit: $5.35-$6.54

Max loss: $6.54

BE: $206.54

Mgmt: Enter near low end of spread debit; trim or close if spot stalls below $198 or post-earnings volatility collapses.

Traders wanting bullish, defined-risk exposure across earnings follow-through.

June call spread (multi-week)

Buy 2026-06-18 $205.00/$214.00 call spread

Buy Jun 18 205/214 call spread for directional upside with limited cost and simpler management than calendars.

Why this play: Lower-cost, single-expiry spread to ride multi-week follow-through without tight gamma around the pin.

Debit: $3.20-$3.91

Max loss: $3.91

BE: $208.91

Mgmt: Add if momentum builds above $205; cut if price drops below $197.5.

Longer-timeline bulls preferring low maintenance.

Call diagonal (sell near-term)

Sell 2026-05-08 $205.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $220.00 call

Short near-term call / buy farther-dated call to monetize pin and capture reversion or sustained rally.

Why this play: Sell short-dated call into dealer gamma near $198–$202 and hold longer call for upside convexity.

Debit: $1.08-$1.32

Max loss: $1.32

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Roll or unwind short leg on unpinning moves or if underlying breaks below $197.5.

Traders comfortable with vega/play on pin decay.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF NVDA trades and closes above $200 for 2 consecutive 15-min bars with 15-min volume >1.5x 20-day 15-min average → THEN buy 5/22 200/215 call spread, size 25% of planned position; scale additional 25% at close >$205; stop-loss close if price < $197.50

IFIF NVDA stalls in $198–$202 for 3 consecutive daily closes and 10-day IV change <±2% (stable vol) → THEN sell 1x 5/08 205 call and buy 1x 6/18 220 call (near-term calendar/diagonal) sized to 15% portfolio risk; unwind if 3-day range expands >4% or daily close < $195

IFIF NVDA breaks and holds above $205 on daily close with daily volume >1.2x 50-day avg → THEN buy 6/18 205/214 call spread, size remaining 50% of plan; cut position if daily close < $197.50

IFIF willing to be assigned: NVDA ≥ $195 at option expiry and cash available → THEN sell 5/29 $200 cash-secured put sized to 100% cash coverage; buy back if price < $197.50 or IV rises >8% vs entry

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF NVDA falls below $197.50 or 30-day IV jumps ≥8% vs entry → THEN reduce bullish spread sizes by 50% (sell half of long spreads), convert remaining to defined-risk by buying protection 1–2 strikes wide, or close remaining if price < $195

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot rallies to $210–$214 on daily close or post-earnings IV collapses ≥12% → THEN take profits: sell bullish spreads and close short near-term calls; realize gains on remaining position and redeploy per new signal

Tactical Summary

Mildly bullish multi-week stance: prefer defined-risk call spreads/diagonals sized in tranches. Use concrete entry (price+volume) and exit rules; defend at $197.50 and reduce size by 50% on price break or IV spike >=8%. Avoid naked short downside into earnings.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 21, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.