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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $220.61EOD only

Max Pain

$212.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$13.50

6.1% from close

Price Gap

-8.11

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.81

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

NVDA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 19, 2026.

View latest report

Outlook

Bullish bias with caution: strong dealer gamma and bullish flow support, but elevated vol and spot 12.7% above MP suggest pinning pull risk.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow alignment +1 bullish pinning +0.5 VIX 18 -1 spot distance = 7.5

Supports: Bullish flow, positive gamma, strong dealer positioning, pinning support near 200-220
Conflicts: Elevated vol, spot far from MP, broader market weakness (QQQ -1.51%)

💪Strong GEX +$1.1B supports bullish bias

⚠️Spot 12.7% above MP may induce pin towards 200

📊Bullish flow net positive, P/C low

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs typical range; VIX 18.43, NVDA vol high likely due to event.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$1.1B, positive gamma pinning; flip at ~$190 (15.7% below spot).

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow: net call buying, low P/C ratio.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above MP; $219.57 vs $200 max pain, distance 12.7%.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — High vol and pinning regime indicate event-specific dynamics; gamma flip below suggests support but elevated VIX suggests near-term catalyst.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$219.57$231.08

Pinning near $220; downside to $200 MP possible, upper $231.08.

Next 1 week

$208.35$242.30

Wider range $190-$242.30; vol expansion and gamma flip risk.

Next 2 weeks

$206.92$243.72

Range $190-$250; gamma support holds above $190, resistance $243.72.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $200 (2026-05-15); $220 (2026-05-18); $205 (2026-05-22)

EM guardrails: 2d $219.57/$231.08; 1w $208.35/$242.30

Support: $206.92

Resistance: $243.72

Gamma flip: ~$190.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 86,750 (15.7% below spot)

Structural: Max pain pins: $200 (May15), $220 (May18), $205 (May22). EM guardrails: 2d $219.57/$231.08; 1w $208.35/$242.30. Support $206.92, resistance $243.72. Gamma flip ~$190.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.1B

DEX: +515.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$190 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 86,750 (15.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$1.1B, DEX +515.5M shares, gamma flip at ~$190 (15.7% below spot); strong dealer gamma bullish.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: NVDA IV elevated relative to VIX; IV rank high, indicating rich premiums; caution on long vol.

Term structure: Likely backwardated with front-month elevated due to event, flattening thereafter.

Skew: Skew shows puts richer than calls; consider short put spreads or call spreads on pinning.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $939M positive, P/C vol ratio 0.47, strong bullish flow.

Directional prints: 9.4 call 227.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol 248k vs OI 21.9k (11.3x); aggressive call buying, bullish. 6.4 put 225 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol 250k vs OI 16.9k (14.9x); low premium suggests sold, likely sold. 25.8 call 232.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol 231k vs OI 12.5k (18.6x); bullish call sweeps.

Unusual: 31.3 call 227.5 OTM 2026-05-18 — Vol 79.9k vs OI 3.3k (24.2x); unusual vol/OI, likely bought, bullish. 35.8 put 227.5 ITM 2026-05-15 — Vol 140k vs OI 8.4k (16.7x); ITM put accumulation, possibly hedging, bearish. 193.8 put 60 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol 2.5k vs OI 160 (15.9x); deep OTM put with extreme IV, likely lottery.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot pullback to gamma flip level (~$190)

!Broader market weakness (SPY/QQQ -1.5%)

!Volatility expansion exceeding range

!Event risk: earnings or macro surprise

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-29 $230.00/$240.00 call spread Why now: Strong bullish flow, high gamma support at 230, 240 short cap limits risk. Expiration after earnings aligns with duration.	Spot pullback below 230 loses premium; vol crush may reduce profit.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $220.00/$217.50 put spread Why now: Elevated put premiums offer attractive credit; support at 220 provides cushion. Defined risk suits cautious bias.	Upside capped at credit; spot below 220 causes max loss. Gamma risk near strike.

Top Plays

Earnings Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-05-29 $230.00/$240.00 call spread

Long $230 call, short $240 call, capturing upside while capping risk.

Why this play: Directly exploits bullish flow and gamma support; defined risk limits earnings downside.

Debit: $2.88-$3.52

Max loss: $3.52

BE: $233.52

Mgmt: Exit if NVDA drops below $207 (invalidation) or take profit at $240.

Traders seeking asymmetric upside with controlled risk.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-05-29 $220.00/$217.50 put spread

Sell $220 put, buy $217.50 put, earning credit with defined risk.

Why this play: Captures elevated put premiums with support at $220; cautious bullish.

Credit: $0.90-$1.10

Max loss: $1.40

BE: $218.90

Mgmt: Manage if spot nears $220; close if invalidation level breached.

Cautious traders comfortable with neutral-to-slightly bullish stance.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFNVDA > $207 and SPY > 525 → Buy $230/$240 call spread

IFNVDA holds $220 support → Sell $220/$217.50 put spread

Exit Triggers

EXITNVDA < $206.92 → Close all positions

EXITNVDA reaches $240 → Close bull call spread

Tactical Summary

Trade NVDA with bullish bias ahead of earnings May 20. Enter bull call spread above $207 and SPY>525, or put credit spread at $220 support. Exit all if NVDA below $206.92; take profit on bull call near $240.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.