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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $199.88EOD only
Max Pain
$197.50
Next expiry Apr 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.99
1.5% from close
Price Gap
-2.38
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
0
Low premium
P/C OI
0.86
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 21, 2026 close
NVDA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Slightly bullish but mean-reverting: spot sits just above MP/pin (~$200) so near-term magnet toward $200–206 is likely; sustained positive dealer flow and net buy-delta support bias for upside extension to ~212–213 if MP holds and fresh buying continues.

Confidence:
9 / 10
Net positive dealer flow and large GEX create upward pressure, but spot>MP implies mean-reversion toward the pin; VIX near 19 keeps IV moderate.
Supports: +1.8B GEX, +424.1M net buy-delta (delta exposure), spot > MP
Conflicts: Spot>MP creates pullback risk to pin; resistance 210–213 could cap moves without new flow
📌MP/pin near $200 likely to attract spot despite upward flow
📈Large GEX (+$1.8B) and dealer net buy-delta (+424.1M) bias dealers toward supporting upside
⚠️Resistance cluster 210–213 may stall rallies absent fresh buying

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
IV near market/VIX levels — neither rich nor depressed; event risk would steepen IV quickly.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning regime: concentrated OI around $200 creates a local magnet; GEX magnitude gives dealers meaningful gamma influence but no imminent flip.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Net premium/delta flow is bullish — dealers are net long-delta (buy-side exposure) which supports higher spot but increases pin vulnerability.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot > MP (~1.2%); that creates short-term downward pull toward the pin, while persistent buy flow can overcome and extend upside.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained OI pinning and persistent dealer flow across several expiries suggest a multi-week structural influence

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$198.32$206.68
Mean-reversion toward $200 pin likely; limited upside without fresh flow
Next 1 week
$196.32$208.68
If MP holds and buy flow continues, test 208–210 probable
Next 2 weeks
$192.05$212.95
Sustained positive flow could push through to 212–213

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $200 (2026-04-22); $190 (2026-04-24); $200 (2026-04-27)
EM guardrails: 2d $198.32/$206.68; 1w $196.32/$208.68
Support: $200.00 · $192.05
Resistance: $202.50 · $210.00 · $212.95
Structural: Max pain/pins: $200 primary; secondary $190. Near-term guardrails: 2d ~198.3/206.7; 1w ~196.3/208.7. Support 200, 192.05; resistance 202.5, 210, 212.95.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.8B

DEX: +424.1M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$1.8B; dealers net long-delta (~+424.1M delta exposure). No immediate gamma flip, so dealers likely to defend pin but can amplify moves if flow shifts.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: NVDA IV tracks VIX/market (not rich); means selling premium can work but is riskier given dealer long-gamma and pinning.

Term structure: Fairly flat across near-dated expiries with highest participation in short-dated series; no steep event kink now.

Skew: Skew moderate. Prefer limited-risk structures over naked short premium: defined credit spreads or short-dated iron flies/put spreads sized to withstand pin moves; consider calendar diagonals to collect premium while capping tail risk.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Very large premium flow with call-skew but substantial same‑day put volume; net directional bias ambiguous—calls suggest bullish positioning while puts could be buys (protective) or sells offsetting calls.

Directional prints: 1.7 call 202.5 OTM 2026-04-22 — Huge near-term call block (316k vol, 20.8k OI) consistent with aggressive buy-side bullish exposure or large call spreads. call 200 ITM 2026-04-22 — Very large weekly calls (155k vol, 13.4k OI); IV flagged as unavailable — supports short-dated bullish pressure if buys. 38.9 call 192.5 ITM 2026-05-15 — Notable May call block (2.8k vol) indicating longer-dated directional bullish exposure or structured positioning.

Unusual: 11.7 put 200 OTM 2026-04-22 — Enormous same-day put flow (186k vol, 11.98k OI); could be protective buys, aggressive puts (bearish), or sold/rolled hedges—trade direction uncertain. 3.6 put 202.5 OTM 2026-04-22 — High near-term put volume (47.8k vol) suggesting significant hedging or short-gamma activity around weekly expiries. 33.4 call 235 OTM 2026-05-15 — Large May calls (50k vol) reinforcing potential sustained bullish exposure beyond weeklies.

Risks & Catalysts

!Fresh bullish gap through 210–213 removing pin and creating rapid repricing
!Company event or earnings guidance causing IV spike
!Market-wide volatility surge (VIX jump) widening IV and unpinning levels

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-22 $200.00/$195.00 put spread
Why now: Slightly bullish, mean-reverting to $200–206 but net buy-delta supports upside extension; sell puts to collect premium and benefit if pin holds.
Earnings or IV spike could widen puts; keep defined wings past earnings.
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-05-22 $210.00/$225.00 call spread
Why now: Bullish skew and large call flow imply demand; defined debit spread reduces cost and vega exposure across earnings by choosing expiry after event.
If mean-reversion toward $200 completes before upside, spread may underperform; choose strikes slightly OTM.
Cash-secured putModerate-Weak
Sell 2026-05-22 $200.00 cash-secured put
Why now: Targets entry around $200 while earning premium; aligns with mean-revert magnet and multi-week horizon.
Large gap down or IV spike around earnings could assign or require roll; keep strike at or below 200.
Call calendarModerate
Sell 2026-05-08 $210.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $210.00 call
Why now: Heavy same-day call flow and rich near-term vols make sell-near/buy-far calendar attractive; keeps long exposure beyond earnings for multi-week move.
Near-term IV repricing or sudden upside gap can make short leg painful; choose near expiry just before or after event carefully.

Top Plays

#1
Sell-near / Buy-far 210 Call Calendar
Sell 2026-05-08 $210.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $210.00 call
Sell 2026-05-08 210 call, buy 2026-06-18 210 call to monetize near-term vol, retain directional upside beyond earnings.
Why this play: Collect rich front-month IV against longer-term upside exposure; aligns with heavy same-day call flow and multi-week horizon.
Debit: $5.87-$7.18
Max loss: $7.18
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Trim/roll if spot closes firmly above 210 into near expiry or if front-month IV collapses; close if price breaks and holds above invalidation (200 is soft).
Traders wanting defined risk, income from IV decay, and exposure through earnings.
#2
May 200/195 Put Credit
Sell 2026-05-22 $200.00/$195.00 put spread
Sell 2026-05-22 200/195 put spread to collect premium while benefiting if pin holds and delta mean-reverts.
Why this play: Slightly bullish mean-revert bias and MP/pin near $200 favors selling downside premium with limited risk.
Credit: $1.76-$2.15
Max loss: $2.85
BE: $197.85
Mgmt: Manage by buying back if price breaches 200 with momentum or if assignment risk becomes unacceptable; cut at predetermined loss (~max loss tolerance).
Income traders comfortable with defined risk and short-term neutral-to-bullish view.
#3
210/225 Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-05-22 $210.00/$225.00 call spread
Buy 2026-05-22 210/225 call spread for capped upside participation with controlled debit.
Why this play: Directional upside play to capture extension toward 212–213 while limiting vega exposure after earnings.
Debit: $3.69-$4.52
Max loss: $4.52
BE: $214.52
Mgmt: Trim into strength above 212–213 or exit if trade fails and spot reverts to ≤200.
Traders seeking upside exposure with limited capital and defined loss.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF spot holds 200–206 and front-month IV remains rich (calendar entry quote within 5.87–7.18) → THEN enter nvda_calendar_call_01: sell 2026-05-08 210C / buy 2026-06-18 210C at market within entry range
IFIF spot reverts toward 200 and put credit price within 1.76–2.15 → THEN enter nvda_put_credit_01: sell 2026-05-22 200/195 put spread
IFIF spot closes >211.50 on daily close OR 14-day RSI >65 on daily close OR daily volume >1.5x 20-day avg and debit within 3.69–4.52 → THEN enter nvda_bull_call_01: buy 2026-05-22 210/225 call spread
IFIF willing to own at ~200 and cash-secured premium within 7.31–8.94 → THEN enter nvda_cash_put_01: sell 2026-05-22 200 cash-secured put
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF spot closes >210 with momentum or front-month IV collapses → THEN trim/roll calendar or buy back short leg; trim bull-call into strength >212.95
Exit Triggers
EXITIF spot breaches and holds <200 or closes decisively below 200 → THEN exit/close short premium positions (put credit, calendar short leg) and cut bull-call to limit loss at invalidation level 200.0

Tactical Summary

Slightly bullish, mean-reverting 200–206; sell near-term premium (calendar, put credit, cash-secured put) while using defined-risk bull-call for directional upside; use measurable breakout/RSI/volume triggers for bull-call entries; invalidate on sustained close <200.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on April 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.