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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $189.31EOD only

Max Pain

$185.00

Next expiry Apr 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.52

1.9% from close

Price Gap

-4.31

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.87

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Apr 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 13, 2026 close

NVDA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with an upside bias toward $192-$195 driven by heavy pinning at $190 and positive net premium; Confidence: 8.5/10 (base). Top supporting signals: GEX +$899.7M concentrated at $190 (pin magnet), net premium +$288.9M with call-heavy flow at $190/$187.50/$185, and spot trading above max pain $185; conflicts: VIX 19.12 (keeps put buying cheap) and MP trend slowly falling to $180 over multi-expirations.

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

Base 8.5 from pre-computed: +GEX concentration (+$102.3M at $190), net premium +$288.9M, IV average 41.7% supports range trades; no imminent catalyst absent so no override.

Supports: GEX pin at $190 (+$102.3M) and put OI cluster at $185/180 providing dealer buying; EM lower bounds $185.79 (2d) and $183.19 (1w)
Conflicts: Longer-term MP trending to $180 and VIX sub-20 that limits tail-premium; structural call wall at $200 can cap upside

📌GEX pinning concentrated at $190 (+$102.3M) — dealers will hedge toward this level

🔁Net premium +$288.9M with call-heavy flow at $190/$187.5 — short-premium regimes are favored

📈Avg IV 41.7% but near-term ATM IVs collapse into single-digit on zero-DTE — expect rapid intraday vol crush at expiries

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal vol regime: Avg IV 41.7% vs VIX 19.12; short-dated IVs are compressed (0d ATM 7.3%, 2d 25.6%) creating steep front-end term structure and tactical selling opportunities.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: large positive GEX (+$899.7M) concentrated near $190 forces dealer delta hedging toward the pin — favors mean reversion and short premium strategies around $187–$193.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow: Net premium +$288.9M and call-heavy top premium strikes ($190, $187.50, $200) imply institutional call accumulation supporting upside magnet.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $189.31 sits above nearest MP $185 and within 2d EM; being above MP increases probability of pin remaining elevated near $185–$190 in the short run.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentration persist across the next several expirations (pins at $185→$180 but strong GEX at $190 for near-term expiries) and EM bounds for 1–2 weeks are tight, favoring 30–45 DTE for primary trades.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$185.79$192.82

Sustained dealer hedging into $190; break below $185.79 would remove pin support and accelerate downside.

Next 1 week

$183.19$195.43

Call-heavy flow and MP at $185 keep downside capped; close above $195.43 needed to shift regime bullish.

Next 2 weeks

$178.16$200.46

Sustained buying can test $200 call OI wall; break under $178.16 (gamma flip region approach) would flip dealers to aggressive buying/selling behavior.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $185 (2026-04-13); $185 (2026-04-15); $180 (2026-04-17)

EM guardrails: 2d $185.79/$192.82; 1w $183.19/$195.43

Support: $185.00 · $183.19 · $180.00

Resistance: $190.00 · $192.50 · $195.00

Gamma flip: ~$140.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 82,694 (26.0% below spot)

Structural: Structural call OI wall at $200 creates a supply cap; gamma flip / long-term put floor around $140 is the deep structural support (far from spot).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+899.7M

DEX: +403.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$140 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 82,694 (26.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large net positive near-the-money gamma centered on $190 (+$102.3M at $190, +$15.8M at $192.50, +$5.2M at $185) — dealers will buy dips toward $190 and sell rallies away from it; a ±2% move (~$185–$193) will materially reduce hedge activity, while a sustained drop toward the gamma flip (~$140) would force heavy dealer buying (support).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 41.7% vs VIX 19.12 — equity-index vol low relative but name-specific IV elevated; very cheap very-short-dated IV (0d ATM 7.3%) reflects expiry compression.

Term structure: Front-end steepness: 2d ATM 25.6% → 7d 27.4% → 18d 32.5% then flattens ~38–41% 39–66d; use 30–45 DTE for favorable carry on short premium.

Skew: Notable cheapness in 0–2d IVs and elevated mid-term IVs; mispriced opportunity: sell mid-term calls around $190 where IV is ~32–38% vs longer-term ~38–39% — calendars/diagonals offer vol edge.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $288.9M (call-biased)

Directional prints: 26.9 call 187.5 ITM (1% from spot) 2026-04-15 — Large printed volume 22,947 against OI 2,820 — could be bought call flow or sold call spreads; consistent with institutional directional call accumulation. 25.3 call 190 OTM (0% from spot) 2026-04-15 — Huge volume 63,756 vs OI 7,576 — directional call buys or opening short call hedges; fits overall bullish net premium and GEX pinning.

Unusual: 10.9 call 187.5 ITM (1% from spot) 2026-04-13 — Zero-DTE abnormal print vol 134,749 vs OI 6,052 — likely hedge/roll activity around expiry that will cause intraday vol swings.

Risks & Catalysts

!Expiry compression / zero-DTE prints can cause intraday vol spikes and whipsaws (see 4/13 prints).

!Gamma flip at ~$140 is distant but structural; MP trend toward $180 over expirations threatens short-premium if sentiment deteriorates.

!VIX >20 or broad-market reversal would steepen IV and punish short-premium positions.

!Large call wall at $200 can trigger supply-led rejection if price approaches $200.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy NVDA stock at market $189.31	Drawdown to $183–$180 seen on MP drift
Short stock	Weak	Avoid naked short stock; heavy dealer hedging biases mean-reversion	Rapid dealer buys on dips near $185
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-04-20 $195 call	Capped upside by $195 call; assignment into strong gap up
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 $185 put or sell 5/1 $185/$180 put spread	Break below $183.19 increases loss; MP drifting to $180 raises assignment risk
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-20 $195 call (for tactical upside)	Front-end IV crush and time decay; expensive mid-term IV
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-01 $180/$175 bear put spread (if downside acceleration)	Limited edge versus buying protection; IV may rise only after move
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-20 185P/180P put wing and sell 190C/195C call wing (use symmetrical wings around EM bounds)	IV spike or directional break beyond EM bounds; rotate if spot exits $183–$195 range
Calendar / diagonal	Strong	Sell 2026-05-29 $190 call (IV ~38.5%), buy 2026-04-20 $190 call (IV ~27.7%) — reverse calendar	Shorter-dated leg has lower IV; selling the longer-dated higher-IV leg (reverse calendar) carries roll risk and directional exposure if spot gaps through the short leg
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-29 $170 LEAPS (long-term) and sell near-term $195 call overlays (covered call cadence)	Requires capital for stock or deep long option; roll risk if underlying rallies quickly

Top Plays

Short-dated iron condor (tactical)

Sell 2026-04-20 185/180 put spread and 190/195 call spread

Edge: GEX pin at $190 and tight 1-week EM ($183.19–$195.43) favor short premium; dealers hedge into pin supporting range.

Credit: $0.40-$0.85

Max loss: $4.60

BE: Breakeven on put side ~184.6 / call side ~190.4

Mgmt: Take 50–70% of max profit at target; cut if spot closes outside $183–$195 on daily basis.

Defined-risk premium collection traders

Reverse calendar (sell longer, buy front)

Sell 2026-05-29 $190 call, buy 2026-04-20 $190 call (reverse calendar; sell 5/29 IV ~38.5% buy 4/20 IV ~27.7%)

Edge: You sell the higher-IV longer-dated call (38.5%) and buy cheaper front-week (27.7%) collecting net credit with potential theta carry if term structure reverts; works when spot stays in the tight EM band.

Credit: $0.30-$1.00

Max loss: Limited to adverse moves in spot and roll costs

Mgmt: Close sold long-dated leg or unwind entire structure if spot closes outside $183–$195 for two consecutive days or if VIX rises >5 pts.

Vol-arb traders wanting credit and willing to manage roll risk

Multi-week put spread (defined-risk bullish)

Sell 2026-05-01 $185/$180 put spread

Edge: MP $185, GEX support and net call flow make short 185–180 durable over 18d; better R/R than very-short weeklies with less gamma risk.

Credit: $0.45-$0.90

Max loss: $4.55

BE: $184.55

Mgmt: Take 50–75% profit; cut if spot closes below $183.19 or VIX spikes >25.

Accounts preferring defined-risk bullish exposure without owning stock

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $185 and holds for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-20 iron condor 185/180P x 190/195C

IFIf spot holds above $189.50 and front IV remains <=28% → Sell 2026-05-29 $190 call and buy 2026-04-20 $190 call (reverse calendar)

IFIf spot retraces to $186 with VIX <20 → Sell 2026-05-01 $185/$180 put spread

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot closes above $195.43 (1-week EM upper) → Widen/roll call wing higher or buy call protection on short condors (roll 190/195 -> 192.5/197.5)

ADJIf spot closes below $183.19 (1-week EM lower) → Buy protection (long puts) and reduce short put exposure; roll short puts to lower strikes (e.g., 180/175)

Exit Triggers

EXITIf VIX >25 and spot <$183.19 → Exit all short premium positions immediately

EXITIf the 0d/2d unusual activity prints spike volume around expiry (e.g., 4/13 prints repeat) → Close or hedge front-week short legs before market close

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: short-premium range trade around $190 supported by GEX pin and call-heavy flow; invalidation: sustained close below $183.19 or VIX>25. Top plays: 4/20 iron condor (tactical), reverse calendar 5/29 sell / 4/20 buy (vol carry), 5/1 185/180 put spread (multi-week defined-risk).

Read the Directional analysis for NVDA for 2026-04-13. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.