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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $205.10EOD only

Max Pain

$215.00

Next expiry Jun 8, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.15

2.5% from close

Price Gap

+9.90

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.86

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 5, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 5, 2026 close

NVDA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 23, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 23, 2026. A newer directional report is available for June 5, 2026.

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Outlook

Bullish-leaning: strong dealer GEX and net buy-flow support upward drift, but concentrated put OI in a consolidated pin band ($192–$200) can cap upside and produce mean-reversion if flow wanes — current bias is up unless a market shock flips orderflow toward put-heavy pressure.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Large positive dealer GEX and sustained bullish premium flow increase directional edge; concentrated put OI creates a nearby cap that reduces conviction absent continued buy-flow.

Supports: Positive dealer GEX, sustained bullish option flow, price above MP with moderate IV.
Conflicts: Concentrated put OI in $192–$200 band (pin risk); broader market weakness or IV spike would negate the bias.

📌Pin band $192–$200 concentrated puts may cap upside if buy-flow weakens.

📈Positive dealer gamma and buy-flow support further drift higher toward $202–$210 while flow persists.

⚠️Market-wide sell-off or event-driven IV spike would rapidly flip the regime and invalidate bullish drift.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV roughly in line with VIX (~19); short-dated IV shows modest kink near upcoming expiries but not extreme.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive net GEX (large) producing supportive convexity; gamma flip remains far below spot (~$140) so dealers are long convexity vs spot range.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net bullish premium flow and dealer buying driving positive delta and GEX; concentrated put OI creates localized pinning pressure.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot currently above midpoint but within range of the $192–$200 pin band — upward bias prevails so long as buy-flow continues; loss of buys likely to pull price toward pin band.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained dealer positioning and persistent buy-flow can maintain drift; concentrated OI makes pinning a multi-week risk if flows reverse.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$196.56$202.71

Buy-flow and GEX support drift; watch $196 and $202 as intraday guards

Next 1 week

$192.81$206.46

Failure of buy-flow or market sell-off risks quick pullback to $192–$196

Next 2 weeks

$188.06$211.21

Continued dealer support needed; event/IV spike would flip to downside

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $192 (2026-04-24); $200 (2026-04-27); $195 (2026-04-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $196.56/$202.71; 1w $192.81/$206.46

Support: $192.50 · $188.06

Resistance: $200.00 · $202.50 · $210.00

Gamma flip: ~$140.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 82,601 (29.9% below spot)

Structural: Support cluster: $192–$196 (pin band). Near resistance: $200, then $202.5–$210. Gamma flip ~ $140 (structural far).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+809.6M

DEX: +408.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$140 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 82,601 (29.9% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX large positive (~+$809M) with net long dealer convexity; concentrated put OI near $192–$200 creates pinning torque but gamma flip remains far below spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: NVDA IV is broadly in line with VIX (~19); not rich enough to favor outright vol selling but allows directional trades with defined-risk hedges.

Term structure: Relatively flat with short-dated kinks around upcoming expiries and max-pain dates; front-month slightly richer vs longer-dated tenors.

Skew: Put skew compressed near the $192–$200 band — consider selling defined-risk put spreads or buying call-call spreads aligned with dealer pinning while hedging for event IV spikes.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium inflow (~$220M): approx. calls ~$130M vs puts ~$90M — sizable short‑dated put volume offsets call blocks; mixed flow rather than pure call skew.

Directional prints: 25.5 call 205 OTM 2026-04-27 — Very large Apr27 205 call block (vol/oi 8.6) — likely aggressive call buying or spread leg; bullish exposure. 26 put 200 ITM 2026-04-24 — Massive Apr24 200 put activity (vol 83k, vol/oi 4.8) — heavy short‑dated put demand; protective buying or hedged directional. 32 call 200 OTM 2026-04-29 — Apr29 200 call flow (vol/oi 7.0) — sizable call accumulation, supports near‑term bullish skew.

Unusual: 27.6 put 205 ITM 2026-04-24 — Large Apr24 205 puts (vol/oi 6.5) — notable short‑dated put demand; possible pinning/hedge flows. 25.4 put 202.5 ITM 2026-04-24 — Very high‑volume Apr24 202.5 puts (vol 42.9k) — concentrated short‑dated protection. 29 put 205 ITM 2026-04-29 — Apr29 205 put also elevated — two‑sided hedging around 205.

Risks & Catalysts

!Market-wide sell-off or volatility spike flipping buy-flow to puts

!Sustained move below $192 unleashing fast gamma-driven unwind

!Event-driven IV expansion (earnings/catalyst) widening spreads and invalidating directional trade

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-22 $185.00/$175.00 put spread Why now: Flow is net-buy (call-heavy) supporting upside; selling premium below the pin band captures yield while capping risk if puts reassert.	Earnings/IV spike or sustained break below $192 can blow past short strike.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-22 $200.00/$210.00 call spread Why now: Dealer GEX and net buy-flow favor upside; defined-risk spread reduces cost vs naked call and limits exposure to IV moves.	IV expansion into earnings reduces forward returns; upside capped by sold call.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-06-18 $210.00 call / sell 2026-06-18 $195.00 put Why now: Directional call demand and positive GEX favor upside capture; structure funds call via put sale with expirations spanning a multi-week horizon.	Put-heavy flows reasserting or IV expansion can flip P/L quickly; ensure margins for short put.

Top Plays

Sell May 185/175 put credit

Sell 2026-05-22 $185.00/$175.00 put spread

Income trade that benefits from upward drift and time decay while staying below concentrated put pressure.

Why this play: Highest edge vs thesis: monetizes net buy-flow and collects premium below the pin band with defined, limited risk.

Credit: $1.67-$2.04

Max loss: $7.96

BE: $182.96

Mgmt: Close or roll if price approaches 192.5 or premium inflow flips to heavy put buying; trim if market-wide volatility spikes.

Conservative to medium traders wanting yield with capped risk.

Buy May 200/210 bull call spread

Buy 2026-05-22 $200.00/$210.00 call spread

Long spread benefits from sustained buys above 200 while limiting exposure to IV moves and earnings proximity.

Why this play: Directional upside play that captures dealer GEX-driven lift with defined risk and lower cost than calls.

Debit: $3.89-$4.76

Max loss: $4.76

BE: $204.76

Mgmt: Take partial profits into strength; exit or convert if NVDA stalls near 200 or falls below 192.5.

Traders seeking capped-risk upside exposure over multi-week horizon.

June 210 call / sell 195 put (risk reversal)

Buy 2026-06-18 $210.00 call / sell 2026-06-18 $195.00 put

Funds calls via put sale for leveraged upside; high reward with asymmetric downside if pin band breaks.

Why this play: Most bullish payoff but largest tail risk from sold put within pin band.

Credit: $1.28-$1.57

Max loss: $193.43

BE: $193.43

Mgmt: Use strict size limits, hedge or unwind if price nears 192.5 or put-side flow accelerates.

Aggressive traders comfortable with sizable short-put risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF NVDA stays >192.50 for 3 trading sessions AND 5-day net delta of calls>puts AND average 30‑min buy/sell flow ratio>1.6 AND spot drifts toward/above 200 without >2pp rise in implied vol (IV30 ≤ current IV +2pp) → THEN sell 2026-05-22 185/175 put credit (setup s1) size = max 25% of account defined-risk option allocation or ≤10 contracts; target credit $1.67–$2.04; max loss per trade = 3× credit received

IFIF NVDA clears and holds >200 for 2 sessions with net buy flow (>1.5 buy/sell) AND 14-day IV ≤ 35% → THEN buy 2026-05-22 200/210 bull call spread (setup s2) size = ≤8 contracts; entry debit $3.89–$4.76; profit target = 50% of max profit or sell at ≥60% move toward short strike; hard stop = 60% of premium lost

IFIF directional conviction defined as: NVDA up 5%+ over 10 trading days AND call-buy flow ratio ≥2.0 AND IV change ≤+3pp → THEN enter bullish risk reversal: buy 2026-06-18 210 call / sell 2026-06-18 195 put (setup s3) size cap = ≤6 contracts and ≤50% of s1 notional; max assigned risk per put = defined and hedged immediately if put fills

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF NVDA falls to ≤192.50 or 3-day accelerated put-buy flow ratio ≥2.5 or IV30 rises >5pp → THEN close or roll all short-put exposure (s1/s3) immediately: buy back shorts and either (a) roll down one strike and extend 30–60 days if premium favorable, or (b) close and replace with defined-risk debit hedge; hedge long spreads with 1:1 short-delta calls or buy protective puts

ADJIF NVDA rallies to ≥200–202.50 OR s2 reaches 50% of max profit OR 10-day IV declines ≥4pp → THEN take partial profits on bull call spread (sell half) and roll remaining short credit (s1) wider by two strikes when realized IV ≤ entry IV and bid for new spread ≥ prior credit; if roll unavailable, buy back and redeploy capital per size caps

Tactical Summary

Bias: multi-week bullish. Primary edge: sell defined-risk premium below $192.50 band (s1) and buy defined-risk upside (s2). Use s3 only with strict size caps and defined flow/IV criteria; defend all short-put exposure at ≤192.50 or on rapid IV/flow adverse moves.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 23, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.