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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $201.68EOD only
Max Pain
$192.50
Next expiry Apr 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.23
0.6% from close
Price Gap
-9.18
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.86
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 17, 2026 close
NVDA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with upside magnet to the $190 pin; Confidence: 7.0/10. Strong signals: large positive GEX +$696.4M concentrated at $190/$185 creating a pin, heavy bullish net premium +$444.3M and P/C vol 0.60, and EM guardrails centered $185.53-$191.73 (2d) that confine moves; conflict: spot sits 7.8% above longer-dated max pain ($175→$180 trend) which limits upside conviction.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 7.0 from pre-computed: +GEX/flow alignment (pinning, net premium), slight drag from spot > MP (7.8%); no imminent catalyst missed.
Supports: GEX concentration at $190 (+$19.3M) and $185 (+$10.3M); put OI cluster at $180 (7,023) and max pain series near $175-$180.
Conflicts: Higher-term max pain below spot (175–180) and IV term-normal but rising after 4/24 (multi-week skew), potential sellers of calls at $195–$205 (OI).
📌Pinning magnet: +$19.3M GEX at $190 (~+0.7% from $188.63) — dealers will hedge toward $190
📈Bullish flow: Net premium +$444.3M concentrated in $185–$205 calls (largest at $190/$200)
⚠️Gamma flip near $140 — structural protection far below, makes downside convex if breached

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
IV average 44.8% with very low near-term ATM IV (3d 21.5%, 5d 27.1%) — short-term vols cheap relative to mid-term, favoring selling short-dated vol and buying 30–45d protection.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning: large positive GEX +$696.4M concentrated at $190/$185; dealers are long gamma near spot which creates mean-reversion into pins.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Flow = Bullish: net premium +$444.3M, heavy call flow at $190/$200/$185; P/C vol 0.60 indicates more call buying than puts.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot $188.63 sits above near-term max pain (175–180) which creates asymmetric downside risk if pin fails but near-term pins at $185/$190 dominate immediate behavior.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning concentrations persist across immediate expirations ($185/$190/$195) and max pain shows a rising trend over 2–4 weeks; GEX sign stable and IV term shows increased mid-term vols (30–39% over 14–42d), favoring 30–45 DTE setups.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$185.53$191.73
Dealer hedging and +$19.3M GEX at $190; failure below $185.53 would accelerate selling.
Next 1 week
$183.80$193.47
Max pain at $175–$180 exerts longer drag but concentrated short-term call OI and net premium keep spot inside EM bounds; break above $193.47 requires fresh call buying beyond $195 OI wall.
Next 2 weeks
$179.26$198.01
EM top ~$198; structural call OI around $200 acts as resistance; decisive move above $198 requires reduction in dealer GEX or large institutional call buying.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $175 (2026-04-10); $180 (2026-04-13); $180 (2026-04-15)
EM guardrails: 2d $185.53/$191.73; 1w $183.80/$193.47
Support: $185.00 · $180.00 · $175.00
Resistance: $190.00 · $195.00 · $200.00
Gamma flip: ~$140.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 83,126 (25.8% below spot)
Structural: Structural layers: heavy call OI and premium concentrated at $200 (104k+ OI buckets across expiries) caps upside; deep put floor at $140 (83,126 OI) provides long-term downside protection and defines gamma flip ~ $140.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+696.4M

DEX: +392.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$140 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 83,126 (25.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term dealers hold large positive gamma concentrated at $190 (+$19.3M) and $185 (+$10.3M) — hedges will buy into dips and sell into rallies inside EM bounds; if spot moves -2% to ~$185 dealers will buy stock to hedge (supporting price); if spot moves +2% to ~$193–$194 dealers will sell stock reducing upside momentum, especially beyond $195 where GEX falls.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: ATM IVs suppressed short-term (3d ATM 21.5%, 5d 27.1%) vs avg IV 44.8%; near-term vols cheap vs mid-term which rises to 32–39%.

Term structure: Steep beyond 14d: 3d 21.5% → 14d 32.0% → 42d 38.9%; favors selling short-dated vol and buying 30–45d protection or selling longer-dated vol when appropriate.

Skew: Immediate misprice: short-dated IV (3–7d) ~21–31% vs 30–45d ~32–39% — sell short-dated and buy mid-dated (reverse calendar) or sell mid-dated premium and buy longer to capture carry.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $444.3M bullish concentrated in calls, P/C vol 0.60

Directional prints: 21.7 call 190 OTM 2026-04-13 — Huge call flow 87,515 vol with OI 8,535 — could be bought calls or call spreads; consistent with institutional call accumulation ahead of continued upside. 30.1 call 200 OTM 2026-04-13 — Large premium at $200 suggests institutional bullish upside targeting $200; likely bought calls or call spreads vs stock hedges. 26.3 call 185 ITM 2026-04-13 — High premium and OI at $185 consistent with roll/hedge activity around the pin region.

Unusual: 30.9 put 187.5 OTM 2026-04-24 — NVDA260424P00187500 vol=9,635 / OI=236 (40.8x) — sizeable short-dated put flow buying protection or synthetic selling; given overall bullish flow more likely purchased as hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $140 — catastrophic if breached but far from spot; low immediate probability.
!Short-term pin release at expiry (next 3–7d) could cause snap moves if dealers rapidly deleverage beyond $193 or below $183.8.
!IV term steepness: buying medium-dated protection could be costly if realized vol stays low; VIX or semiconductor sell-off would widen IV quickly.
!Concentrated call OI at $190/$200 means a forced unwind on large downside prints could exacerbate moves.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long stockModerate-Weak
Buy shares at $188.63
Downside to $175–180 pin; large capital tie-up.
Short stockWeak
Avoid — dealers long-gamma and call-heavy flow favors mean-reversion
Pinning/GEX will bleed shorts into mean-reverts.
Covered callModerate
Buy stock + sell 30–45d 195.0 call (5/08)
Capped upside at $195; assignment risk if rallies above $195.
Cash-secured put / put spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 30–45d 185.0/180.0 put spread (5/08)
Gamma flip if market breaks below $180; max loss if stock <180.
Long calls (directional)Moderate
Buy 3–7d 190.0 call (4/13) or 14–21d 190.0 call (4/24 / 5/01)
Rapid theta decay and low short-dated IV can crush options; pay up for directional exposure.
Long puts / bear put spreadModerate-Weak
Buy 30–45d 180.0/170.0 put spread (5/08–5/22) only as hedge
Expensive relative to realized vol; limited edge vs buying longer protection.
Iron condor (short premium)Moderate-Strong
Sell 30–45d 185.0/180.0 put x 195.0/200.0 call (5/08)
IV spike or weekly pin release beyond $195 or below $180 breaks wings.
Reverse calendar / diagonal (sell longer-dated higher-IV)Strong
Sell 5/08 190.0 call (ATM ~32.6% IV), buy 4/13 190.0 call (ATM ~21.7% IV) — reverse calendar
Shorter-term vega exposure if spot gaps; requires pin to hold near $190; margin if short leg ITM.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonalModerate-Strong
Buy long-dated LEAP calls (2027-01 160/180 diagonal) and sell 30–45d calls around 195.0
Capital intensive; benefits from term-structure carry and positive delta from DEX.
Synthetic / delta-neutral spreadsModerate
Buy 30–45d 185.0/195.0 call ratio backspread sized to positive delta
Model-dependent sizing; loses if stays static in center.

Top Plays

#1
30–45d Short Premium Iron Condor
Sell 5/08 185.0/180.0 put spread + Sell 5/08 195.0/200.0 call spread
Leverages positive GEX pinning between $185–$195 and captures rich mid-term IV (30–39%) vs cheap weeklies; wings map to EM guardrails and OI walls.
Credit: $1.00-$1.80
Max loss: $400.00
BE: Lower breakeven ~184.0 / Upper breakeven ~196.0
Mgmt: Take 50–70% credit at 30% of DTE, cut at 25% of width remaining or if spot < $183.8 or > $195.0.
Accounts wanting defined risk premium collection over multi-week pin
#2
Sell 30–45d 185/180 Put Spread
Sell 5/08 185.0/180.0 put spread
Best asymmetric short premium leveraging dealer pinning at $185 and strong put OI at $180; lower margin than naked puts.
Credit: $0.60-$1.10
Max loss: $440.00
BE: $184.40
Mgmt: Close at 60–70% max profit or if spot < $180.0 (gamma flip zone to $140 distant).
Defined-risk premium collectors who accept assignment at $180–185
#3
Reverse Calendar / Diagonal (sell 5/08, buy 4/13)
Sell 5/08 190.0 call, buy 4/13 190.0 call (reverse calendar)
Sells higher-IV 5/08 (≈32.6%) and buys lower-IV 4/13 (≈21.7%), capturing ~10–12 vol-pt edge; profits if spot stays near $190 and mid-term IV collapses.
Credit: $0.40-$1.00
Max loss: $190.00
BE: Position-dependent — manage if short-leg ITM beyond short expiry
Mgmt: Take profits on 50–70% of credit; buy back short 5/08 leg if IV rises or spot moves outside $185–$195.
Traders seeking to monetize term-structure steepness with limited directional bias

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot tags $190.00 and holds 30 minutes within EM bounds → Sell 30–45d 185.0/180.0 put spread (5/08) AS LONG as P/C flow remains <0.8.
IFIf spot is between $187.00–$190.00 and 3d IV <22% → Initiate reverse calendar: sell 5/08 190.0 call, buy 4/13 190.0 call.
IFIf spot pulls back to $185.00 and 14d IV >30% → Sell 30–45d 185.0/180.0 put spread (5/08).
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIf spot > $195.00 and short premium positions open → Buy back call side of iron condor/covered calls and consider rolling calls up to 200.0 or wider wings.
ADJIf spot < $183.80 (1-week EM lower bound) → Hedge short premium by buying 30–45d 180.0/170.0 put spreads or close positions.
Exit Triggers
EXITIf short-premium trade reaches 60–70% of max profit → Take profits and harvest theta (close entire position).
EXITIf unusual put print volume increases (e.g., 4/24 187.5 put flow >3k vol and OI growth) → Close or tighten short premium and buy protection (5/08 180.0/170.0 put spread).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealer pinning and heavy bullish flow create a mean-reverting market centered around $190; invalidation below $183.80 (1-week EM lower) signals pin failure and requires protective hedges. Regime favors shorting multi-week premium (iron condors, put spreads) and employing reverse calendars to capture term-structure; Top plays: 5/08 iron condor, 5/08 185/180 put spread, reverse calendar (sell 5/08, buy 4/13) for vol capture.
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This directional reflects the market close on April 10, 2026.
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