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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $225.83EOD only

Max Pain

$195.00

Next expiry May 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.01

3.1% from close

Price Gap

-30.83

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.82

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 13, 2026 close

NVDA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

NVDA in bullish gamma pinning regime with high vol; spot above max pain but within 2d range; bias higher as long as support 214.64 holds.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5: +2 GEX/flow aligned, +1 GEX positive pinning, -1 spot 20.9% from MP, +1 VIX 17.26 = 8.

Supports: Bullish flow, high GEX $+930.6M, positive gamma pinning.
Conflicts: Spot 20.9% from max pain, gamma flip near $190 (19.4% below spot).

📈Bullish flow and GEX pinning support upside bias.

⚠️Gamma flip at ~$190 poses tail risk if spot drops.

🔒2d range $230-$240; breakout needed for continuation.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated vs historical norm; VIX 17.26 supports high-vol environment.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$930.6M, positive gamma pinning; flip at ~$190 (19.4% below spot).

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow with net premium favoring calls.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above max pain pins $195-$215; within 2d EM guardrails $230.85-$240.64.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — High vol, positive gamma, and bullish flow suggest multi-week directional bias ahead of key levels.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$230.85$240.64

Resistance at $240.64; support $230.85; break above triggers upside.

Next 1 week

$216.94$254.54

Range $216.94-$254.54; gamma pinning supports drift towards resistance.

Next 2 weeks

$214.64$256.84

Wider range $214.64-$256.84; structure supports higher high if vol sustains.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $195 (2026-05-15); $215 (2026-05-18); $205 (2026-05-22)

EM guardrails: 2d $230.85/$240.64; 1w $216.94/$254.54

Support: $214.64

Resistance: $256.84

Gamma flip: ~$190.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 88,353 (19.4% below spot)

Structural: Support $214.64, resistance $256.84; gamma flip ~$190; max pain pins $195 (5/15), $215 (5/18), $205 (5/22).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+930.6M

DEX: +545.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$190 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 88,353 (19.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$930.6M positive; DEX +545.1M shares; gamma flip ~$190 (19.4% below spot).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: NVDA IV rich vs VIX at 17.26; elevated vol regime supports premium pricing.

Term structure: Backwardated term structure with event kinks around max pain dates; near-term vol elevated.

Skew: Put skew relatively cheap vs calls; opportunity in put spreads for tail hedge below $190.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net put premium, P/C ratio >1, bearish flow.

Directional prints: 33.9 put 232.5 OTM 2026-05-15 — Vol/OI 268x, massive put buying near money; likely hedging or bearish bet. 31.5 put 230 OTM 2026-05-18 — Vol/OI 96x, aggressive put buying; bearish mid-May positioning.

Unusual: 193.8 put 90 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 15.9x, deep OTM put with huge IV; lottery-like bearish tail hedge. 91.4 call 335 OTM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 15.8x, far OTM call with high IV; speculative upside bet.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $190 could trigger dealer hedging on spot decline.

!High vol may collapse if event risk passes, deflating premium.

!Resistance at $256.84 caps upside; failure to break could lead to mean reversion.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $215.00/$210.00 put spread Why now: Put credit spread profits from stock staying above short strike; aligns with bullish bias and defined risk.	Gamma flip below 190 could cause rapid loss; cap upside with short strikes.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-29 $240.00/$260.00 call spread Why now: Bull call spreads benefit from directional move with limited cost; high IV supports premium for selling.	Time decay and vol crush if earnings already priced; resistance at 256.84.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-29 $245.00 call / sell 2026-05-29 $215.00 put Why now: Risk reversal provides cheap upside exposure; short put premium offsets cost; high vol benefits long call.	Uncapped put risk if stock falls; need support 214.64 to hold.

Top Plays

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-05-29 $215.00/$210.00 put spread

Sell $215/$210 put spread to collect premium while staying above key support.

Why this play: Highest probability play given bullish thesis and strong support at $214.64; defined risk, benefits from time decay and stable price.

Credit: $0.79-$0.96

Max loss: $4.04

BE: $214.04

Mgmt: Exit if NVDA breaks below $214.64; take profit at 50% max gain or before earnings.

Conservative directional bulls wanting defined risk and high win rate near support.

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-05-29 $240.00/$260.00 call spread

Buy $240/$260 call spread for leveraged upside with capped risk.

Why this play: Capitalizes on bullish move with limited cost; high IV provides premium for selling the higher strike.

Debit: $4.95-$6.05

Max loss: $6.05

BE: $246.05

Mgmt: Close if stock fails to hold $230; target full profit at $260 or decay holding.

Moderate-risk traders expecting a push higher with defined loss.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-05-29 $245.00 call / sell 2026-05-29 $215.00 put

Buy $245 call, sell $215 put for low-cost bullish bet with high upside.

Why this play: Cheapest way to gain upside exposure; short put premium offsets cost but leaves unlimited loss if support breaks.

Debit: $3.84-$4.69

Max loss: $215.00

BE: $215.00

Mgmt: Monitor closely; close short put if NVDA approaches $215; take profits on call if stock surges.

Aggressive bulls confident in support holding and wanting unlimited upside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFNVDA holds above $214.64 before earnings → Sell 2026-05-29 $215.00/$210.00 put spread

IFNVDA maintains support $214.64 and shows upward momentum → Buy 2026-05-29 $240.00/$260.00 call spread

Exit Triggers

EXITNVDA closes below $214.64 → Close all bullish positions

Tactical Summary

NVDA in bullish gamma pinning regime; support $214.64, resistance $256.84, earnings May 20. High volatility favors defined-risk spreads. Invalidation at $214.64. Manage positions accordingly.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.