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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $198.35EOD only

Max Pain

$182.50

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.81

1.4% from close

Price Gap

-15.85

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.85

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 16, 2026 close

NVDA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish thesis: dealers long gamma (GEX +$1.1B) and net buying (DEX +460.5M) are pinning NVDA above midpoint, supporting continued upside into $207–212; momentum and market rally reinforce call-led flow but spot sits ~9% above MP so pullbacks to $196–200 remain possible.

Confidence:

8 / 10

High confidence from aligned GEX/flow and positive dealer delta; tempered by spot distance from recorded MP and normal vol regime.

Supports: GEX +$1.1B; DEX +460.5M shares; market-wide risk-on (SPY/QQQ up)
Conflicts: Spot 9% above MP levels; no nearby put OI concentration (limited downside pin)

📌Pinning evident: max-pain pins clustered $185–$192 but dealer gamma/flow holding price above MP

📈Bullish dealer backdrop: large positive GEX (+$1.1B) and heavy buy-side delta (+460.5M shares)

⚠️Spot ~9% above midpoint — corrections to $196–200 plausible despite pinning

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Normal IV vs market (VIX ~17); no extreme richness.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Dealer long-gamma regime: positive GEX implies dealers are long gamma, which mutes realized volatility and supports price stability near current levels.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish premium flow and buy-side delta dominate, reinforcing upside; little put concentration to pin downside.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above MP and edges of put pain; distance creates pullback vulnerability despite dealer support.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained positive dealer positioning and large GEX imply multi-week bias rather than single-day event

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$200.45$202.90

Trading inside 2d guardrails $200.45–$202.90; expect consolidation or grind higher

Next 1 week

$196.35$207.01

Range $196.35–$207.01; momentum and flow favor pushes toward upper bound

Next 2 weeks

$191.35$212.00

Wider upside room to $212 if market holds; pullbacks to $191–196 possible on mean reversion

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $185 (2026-04-17); $192 (2026-04-20); $190 (2026-04-22)

EM guardrails: 2d $200.45/$202.90; 1w $196.35/$207.01

Support: $191.35 · $185.00

Resistance: $212.00

Structural: 2d guardrails $200.45/$202.90; 1w $196.35/$207.01; structural support $191.35 and $185; resistance $212; max-pain pins: $185 (4/17), $192 (4/20), $190 (4/22).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.1B

DEX: +460.5M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$1.1B; DEX +460.5M shares; dealer long-gamma supports pinning and reduces realized vol near spot.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: NVDA IV roughly in line with VIX (neutral); no material richness to force vol-led adjustments.

Term structure: Term structure relatively flat/normal across near-term expiries; no sharp event kinks in front-month.

Skew: Put skew modest; vol-structure opportunity: front-week call skew rich vs further dated vols — favorable to structure (calendar/roll) trades if seeking to monetize elevated near-term call demand.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +1.095B USD received (net cash flow = sum premiums received minus paid); put/call volume = 0.47 and put/call OI = 0.86 — net premium inflow plus call-skew supports an overall bullish bias.

Directional prints: 8.4 put 200 OTM 2026-04-17 — Massive same-day 198,904 volume vs 7,990 OI (vol/oi 24.9) — likely large sell-to-open puts (net premium received) or put-heavy structured sale; trade reads bullish (short puts) with short-dated gamma exposure. 19.5 call 205 OTM 2026-04-20 — Very large Apr20 call flow (75,586 vol, 6,043 OI, vol/oi 12.5) — consistent with outright call buying or buyers adding upside via spreads; bolsters bullish view.

Unusual: 8.6 put 202.5 ITM 2026-04-17 — Extremely high vol/oi (48.0) on Apr17 202.5 puts (34,566 vol, 720 OI) — likely sweep/large block put sell or one-off institutional hedging. 51.8 call 265 OTM 2026-05-01 — May01 265 call with elevated IV (51.8) and notable volume (3,715) — long-dated directional call speculation or collar leg; unusual IV relative to nearer expiries.

Risks & Catalysts

!Broad market reversal erases dealer-provided support

!Sharp correction to MP region (~185–196) if flows flip

!Company-specific news or cyclical tech shock increasing realized vol

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-29 $200.00/$210.00 call spread Why now: Market and dealer flow are call-led; buy-call/sell-higher-call expresses directional upside with defined risk across earnings window.	Earnings or broad-market reversal can spike vol and compress spread P/L
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-22 $190.00/$185.00 put spread Why now: Net premium inflow, dealer long gamma and call-led flow support upper range; sell downside premium to collect skew while limiting tail risk into/through earnings.	Broad market reversal or sharp realized vol spike; capped upside.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-22 $200.00/$215.00 call spread Why now: Momentum and dealer flows favor call demand; defined-risk debit spread captures upside while capping cost into earnings.	Upside limited by sold call; IV rise into earnings widens paid leg.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-05-22 $210.00 call / sell 2026-05-22 $195.00 put Why now: Call-led flow and dealer pinning make financed upside attractive; keeps directional exposure with limited capital outlay.	Naked short put exposure if spot gaps lower; requires margin or cash cover.
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-29 $190.00 cash-secured put Why now: If willing to own NVDA on a pullback, selling puts at support monetizes dealer pinning and yields income while meeting desired buy price.	Assignment into a sharp gap lower or broad market sell-off.
Call calendar	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-01 $205.00 call / buy 2026-05-29 $205.00 call Why now: Front-month call flow is heavy; sell nearer-dated calls and own back-month to benefit if spot grinds higher or stays pinned above midpoint into earnings.	Front-month gap or fast move raises short call gamma risk; requires monitoring.

Top Plays

Defined-risk bull call spread (May29 200/210)

Buy 2026-05-29 $200.00/$210.00 call spread

Buy 200/210 back-month spread to capture upside toward $207–$212 while limiting loss if spot reverts to MP.

Why this play: Directly expresses call-led dealer flow and caps risk across the multi-week/into-earnings window.

Debit: $4.16-$5.09

Max loss: $5.09

BE: $205.09

Mgmt: Take partial profits as spread nears max value; trim on >6% gap down or breach of invalidation 191.35.

Momentum traders who want directional upside with limited capital at risk.

Put credit spread (Sell 190/Buy 185 May22)

Sell 2026-05-22 $190.00/$185.00 put spread

Sell 190/185 to monetize downside premium into short-dated pinning/support region.

Why this play: Collects skewed premium consistent with net premium inflow and dealer pinning while limiting tail risk.

Credit: $1.17-$1.43

Max loss: $3.57

BE: $188.57

Mgmt: Close or roll if spot falls toward 191–190 or broad market risk reverses; cut at invalidation 191.35.

Income-oriented traders comfortable with defined downside risk into earnings week.

Call calendar (Sell May1 205 / Buy May29 205)

Sell 2026-05-01 $205.00 call / buy 2026-05-29 $205.00 call

Short near call, long back-month to collect theta and maintain upside exposure into earnings.

Why this play: Exploits heavy front-month call flow and benefits if spot grinds or stays pinned above MP.

Debit: $5.02-$6.13

Max loss: $6.13

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Manage short leg assign/roll risk around May1; unwind if volatility term structure collapses or spot breaks below 191.35.

Theta traders who expect range-bound or slowly rising spot into earnings.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF NVDA trades and holds >200 for 2 sessions OR breaks above 207 on >0.5x average daily volume → THEN buy 2026-05-29 200/210 call spread (nvda_bull_call_spread_mw1) within entry range 4.16–5.09

IFIF NVDA pulls to 196–191.35 AND 30‑day IV changes by ≤±5% over prior 5 trading days → THEN sell 2026-05-22 190/185 put spread (nvda_put_credit_may22) within entry range 1.17–1.43

IFIF spot closes inside 200–207 for 3 consecutive sessions AND expected theta carry (short front-month) ≥$0.05/day → THEN establish calendar: sell 2026-05-01 205 call / buy 2026-05-29 205 call (nvda_calendar_call_may1_may29) within entry range 5.02–6.13

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF 200/210 call spread value ≥80% of max width (≥$8) OR NVDA gaps up >+6% intraday → THEN take partial profits (sell 25–50% position) on 2026-05-29 200/210 call spread; trail stop on remaining at 60% of peak value

Exit Triggers

EXITIF NVDA ≤191.35 OR SPX declines ≥3% intraday OR VIX rises ≥15% intraday → THEN close or roll defined‑risk bullish structures; cut put credit and calendars at invalidation 191.35

Tactical Summary

Bullish multi‑week bias: favor defined call spreads and selective put credits; use IV change ±5%, theta carry ≥$0.05/day, and 191.35 invalidation; take partial profits when spreads reach ≥80% of width.

Read the Directional analysis for NVDA for 2026-04-17. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.