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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $201.68EOD only
Max Pain
$192.50
Next expiry Apr 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.23
0.6% from close
Price Gap
-9.18
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.86
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 17, 2026 close
NVDA Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Modestly bullish (~60% probability) toward $209–214 over 1–2 weeks with a 1-week target $209 (~+4%) and 2-week target $214 (~+7%). Confidence band: 1-week $201–$217 (68%); stop if price breaks and closes below $194 (invalidates short-term pin). Thesis hinges on sustained positive dealer gamma and buy flow; failure of QQQ/IV spike lowers probability below 40%.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
Positive net GEX concentrated in front-week expiries, persistent buy premium flow, spot above mid-price; offset by market correlation risk and elevated near-term IV.
Supports: Front-week positive GEX and buy-flow; spot > mid; concentrated pin band.
Conflicts: Broad market weakness / rising VIX could erase pin; limited deep put OI to anchor downside.
📌High probability pin near front-week max-pain ~$198 (0–7d)
⚖️Total +$941M GEX concentrated front-week, biasing short-term stability
⚠️Close below $194 invalidates thesis; market IV spike is key risk

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Near-term IV elevated vs monthly average: front-week IV ~38% (rich vs VIX ~22%), 8–30d IV ~32% (moderately rich), 30+d ~28% (near-normal).
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning regime: total +$941.3M GEX skewed to 0–7d (~+680M), 8–30d ~+180M, 30d+ ~+81.3M — reduces front-week realized move and encourages pin near front-week max-pain.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Net buy premium concentrated in front-week and monthly expiries; dealers long delta/positive gamma funded by selling longer-dated premium.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot > mid-price and sitting inside front-week max-pain band (~$197.9–$206.2) — upward pressure but capped until front-week expiry.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Concentrated front-week GEX creates short-term pinning with multi-week extension potential if market stays calm and buy flow persists.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$197.94$206.18
Held inside front-week pin band $197.9–$206.2; expect tight chop with upside bias.
Next 1 week
$194.70$209.42
Front-week GEX and buy flow favor push to $209; failure below $194 increases downside risk.
Next 2 weeks
$189.33$214.78
If market grips, dealer positioning supports extension to $214 area; else mean-revert to $189–$195.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $198 (2026-04-20); $195 (2026-04-22); $190 (2026-04-24)
EM guardrails: 2d $197.94/$206.18; 1w $194.70/$209.42
Support: $197.50 · $189.33
Resistance: $202.50 · $210.00 · $214.78
Structural: Front-week (0–7d) max-pain ≈ $198; 8–30d (1w) max-pain ≈ $195; monthly (30d+) structural max-pain ≈ $190. Structural support ~$189.3; resistances: $202.5 (near), $210 (next), $214.8 (extension).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+941.3M

DEX: +419.9M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Total +$941.3M GEX: front-week (0–7d) ≈ +$680M, 8–30d ≈ +$180M, 30d+ ≈ +$81.3M. DEX net dealer delta ≈ +419.9M shares — dealers long delta/gamma, promoting pinning and muted realized moves near front-week expiries.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Near-term IV (0–7d) ~38% is rich vs VIX ~22%; mid-dated IV (8–30d) ~32% also rich; long-dated ~28% near historical norm. Rich front-week IV reduces incentive for one-legged short vol.

Term structure: Steep front-end premium with elevated 0–7d and 8–30d IVs then rolls down by 30+d; event kink in front-week due to concentrated open interest/GEX.

Skew: Call-side bid from bullish flow; opportunistic trade: short-dated put spreads or call-buy vs defined risk calendar to capture front-week pin while limiting exposure.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium large positive (~$1.295B) with call-heavy volume, but simultaneous massive short-dated put blocks suggest mixed flows — call-biased yet potentially hedged/blocked.

Directional prints: 17 call 200 ITM 2026-04-20 — Very large intraday call flow (250,970 vol, vol/oi 22.6); reads as aggressive call buying or call‑spread activity, bullish pressure or dealer gamma exposure. 2.9 call 202.5 OTM 2026-04-20 — High volume (131,446, vol/oi 12.6) near the shelf; indicates short‑dated upside positioning and concentrated gamma risk around 200–203. 32.4 call 197.5 ITM 2026-04-20 — Notable flow (52,005, vol/oi 10.2) with elevated IV — supports short‑dated upside interest though could be part of complex structures.

Unusual: 10.2 put 200 OTM 2026-04-20 — Extremely large put block (132,236 vol, vol/oi 26.6) with tiny prints — likely block hedging or complex leg rather than pure directional sells; temp. offsets call bias. 19.5 put 197.5 OTM 2026-04-20 — Very high short‑dated put volume (124,094, vol/oi 13.9); could be protective buys or dealer inventory trades, reinforcing mixed/hedged flow.

Risks & Catalysts

!Broad market selloff / VIX spike eroding pin and pushing price below $194
!Sudden company-specific news/earnings causing IV gap and gamma flip
!Dealer hedging reversal if large new put demand concentrates in-front week

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-05-29 $210.00/$215.00 call spread
Why now: Expiries set after next_earnings_date 2026-05-01 to hold through potential follow‑through; aligns with heavy call dealer gamma and call flows.
Earnings/market shock causing IV spike or break below $194 erodes spread value.
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-05-29 $190.00/$175.00 put spread
Why now: Expiries after next_earnings_date 2026-05-01; premium harvest benefits from call‑biased flow and defined downside protects versus naked put.
Broad market selloff or concentrated put demand can push NVDA below short strike and widen losses.
Bullish risk reversalModerate-Weak
Buy 2026-05-29 $215.00 call / sell 2026-05-29 $190.00 put
Why now: Expiries placed after next_earnings_date 2026-05-01 to capture post‑earnings direction; leverages observed aggressive call flow and call‑heavy gamma financing.
If IV on puts spikes or NVDA gaps down on earnings, the short put side can produce large losses.

Top Plays

#1
May bull call spread (210/215)
Buy 2026-05-29 $210.00/$215.00 call spread
Defined-cost long call spread through post-earnings expiry captures dealer gamma/buy-flow exposure with limited capital at risk.
Why this play: Best risk-reward to express modestly bullish 1–2 week thesis while capping downside to the invalidation near $197.5.
Debit: $1.62-$1.98
Max loss: $1.98
BE: $211.98
Mgmt: Enter within entry band; trim or roll up if NVDA clears $209; cut if daily close below $194–197.5 or if QQQ/IV spikes.
Traders seeking directional upside with limited loss and moderate conviction.
#2
Bullish risk reversal (buy 215C / sell 190P)
Buy 2026-05-29 $215.00 call / sell 2026-05-29 $190.00 put
Directional, low-cost to long upside financed by short put; benefits if dealer gamma remains positive and IV doesn’t spike.
Why this play: Most directional and gamma-levered to ride aggressive call flow and upside; highest upside but material tail risk.
Credit/Debit: N/A
Max loss: $190.00
BE: $190.00
Mgmt: Size small, monitor put concentrations; unwind if price closes below $197.5 or market-wide IV jumps.
High-conviction traders tolerant of large downside assignment risk.
#3
May put credit spread (sell 190/175)
Sell 2026-05-29 $190.00/$175.00 put spread
Sell spread collects premium with defined, but sizable, max loss if NVDA breaks down.
Why this play: Premium harvest aligns with call-biased flow but asymmetric loss profile makes it lowest priority.
Credit: $2.81-$3.43
Max loss: $11.57
BE: $186.57
Mgmt: Keep tight position size; defend or buy back if NVDA nears $197.5 or market sells off.
Income-focused traders comfortable with larger capital at risk for premium.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF NVDA mid-price for 2026-05-29 210/215 call spread is between $1.62–$1.98 AND NVDA > $202.50 (daily close) → THEN buy the 210/215 bull call spread using limit orders aimed at the bid/ask midpoint (accept fills within midpoint ±$0.05); position sizing = s1 (risk 0.5% of portfolio per spread, max 2% aggregate risk)
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIF NVDA posts a daily close > $209 → THEN implement s1 management: trim 25% of position at first adjust; trim another 25% at next target (daily close > $212); or roll up by selling current spread and buying the next 5-strike higher 210→215 to 215→220 width-equivalent while keeping per-spread risk ~equal and not increasing aggregate risk beyond s1 limits
Exit Triggers
EXITIF NVDA daily close < $194 OR VIX rises >25% intraday vs prior close OR QQQ falls >3% intraday → THEN close remaining bullish option exposure (buy back spreads/close positions) and halt further entries

Tactical Summary

Modestly bullish 1–2 week bias toward $209–$214. Primary trade: May 29 210/215 bull call spread at midpoint $1.62–$1.98, limit at midpoint ±$0.05. Size per s1 (0.5% risk per spread, max 2%). Trim/roll if daily close > $209 (25% trim, follow-up at $212); exit on daily close < $194 or VIX +25% intraday or QQQ -3% intraday.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.