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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $196.51EOD only

Max Pain

$185.00

Next expiry Apr 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.04

1.6% from close

Price Gap

-11.51

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.87

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 14, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 14, 2026 close

NVDA Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term pinning bias toward the $185 max-pain ladder but immediate magnet pressure into $195–$200; Confidence: 7.5/10 (base). Primary supports: concentrated positive GEX (+$948.0M) clustered at $195/$200 and heavy bullish net premium ($1.1B); main conflict: MP trend lower ($185→$180) and spot is 6.2% above longer-dated MP which limits upside conviction.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 7.5 from provided fields; no imminent catalyst or cross-asset signal that invalidates model so no override.

Supports: GEX +$948.0M with largest concentrations +$149.9M at $195 and +$96.8M at $200; Net premium $1.1B and P/C vol 0.42 (call-heavy).
Conflicts: Max pain ladder falling (short-term MP $185) and spot sits above MP; VIX low (18.36) reduces premium for longs.

📌Pinning: GEX concentrated at $195 (−0.8% from spot) is the dominant near-term magnet

📈Flow is decisively bullish: call-heavy top premium at $200 ($231M net) and $195 ($165M net)

⚖️Max pain trend lower (185→180) provides downside gravity over multiple expiries

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV labeled 'Normal' with Avg IV 44.7% but near-term ATM IV collapses to 25.5% (1d)–33.9% (30d) showing cheap front-week vol and moderate term premia.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

'Pinning' means dealers are long gamma near spot (GEX +$948.0M) so dealer hedging will buy into dips and sell into rallies inside the pin band, favoring mean-reversion.

Flow Regime

Bullish

'Bullish' flow: Net premium +$1.1B, P/C vol 0.42 and heavy call premium at $195/$200 → institutional skew to upside.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $196.51 sits above near-dated MP ($185–$180), creating opposing forces: pinning GEX wants to magnet to ~195/200 short-term while MP ladder exerts longer-dated downward pressure.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and bullish flow concentrations persist across multiple near expirations (GEX lumps at $195/$200 and MP shows a slow downtrend over many expirations), so prefer 30–45 DTE for base trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$193.47$199.55

$199.55 is 2d upper EM; sustained break >$200 removes dealer selling pressure and invites run to $202.72.

Next 1 week

$190.29$202.72

If spot holds >$195, dealer delta selling will cap; failure < $193.47 expands downside toward MP $185.

Next 2 weeks

$184.86$208.16

Break below $190.29 (1w lower EM) accelerates move to $185 max pain; reclaim >$202.72 invalidates down thesis.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $185 (2026-04-15); $180 (2026-04-17); $185 (2026-04-20)

EM guardrails: 2d $193.47/$199.55; 1w $190.29/$202.72

Support: $195.00 · $192.50 · $190.00

Resistance: $200.00 · $202.50 · $205.00

Gamma flip: ~$140.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 82,750 (28.8% below spot)

Structural: Structural put floor concentrated at $140 (gamma flip ~$140); large long-dated downside interest sits $150–$170 supporting deep protective wings and LEAPS hedges.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+948.0M

DEX: +435.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$140 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 82,750 (28.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: NTM positive gamma concentrated at $195 (+$149.9M) and $200 (+$96.8M) — dealers will buy dips toward these levels and sell rallies through them; a ±2% move (~$192–$200) will materially reduce hedging flows (dips elicit dealer buying, rallies elicit dealer selling) and likely pin price inside $193–$200 band.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Spot ATM short-term IV is low: 1d ATM 25.5% vs VIX 18.36 (VIX low); front-week IV depressed relative to 17–45d (30–34%), implying limited immediate vol pick-up.

Term structure: Term structure = front-week cheap (25–33%), elevated 30–45d (~33.7–38.9%) and higher in mid-term (39.9% at 38d) — good for selling near-term vs buying 30–45d calendars/diagonals.

Skew: Call-heavy flow has flattened recent skew; mispriced opportunity: sell 1–7d calls and buy 30–45d calls (calendar) where IV differs ~5–8 vol pts (e.g., 4/17 ~30.9% vs 5/29 ~39.8%).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium +$1.1B (strong buy-call flow); top call premium concentrated at $200 ($231.0M net) and $195 ($165.3M).

Directional prints: 25.5 call 195 ITM 2026-04-15 — Large volume prints into 4/15 $195 calls (Vol 173,589 vs OI 8,274) — could be buy-to-open directional or dealer gamma-driven buys; given net call-heavy flow, interpreted as bought calls (bullish). 39.8 call 200 OTM 2026-05-29 — Heavy flow into 5/29 $200 calls (Vol 50,506 OI 1,333) — likely directional accumulation for multi-week upside.

Unusual: 27.1 put 192.5 OTM 2026-04-15 — Extremely high relative volume on 4/15 $192.50 put (74,213 vol vs OI 570) — could be protective buys or cheap pin fade; both interpretations valid, but overall flow favors bullish call buys so treat as tactical protection.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip sits near $140 — structural tail exists if convex selling pushes through large gap;

!Near-dated expiration cluster (4/15–4/20) plus heavy call flow can create pin/roll volatility near those expiries;

!VIX at 18.36: low base means vol spikes on downside moves will hurt short premium quickly;

!MP trend lower to $180–$185 over expirations adds medium-term downside gravity.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate	Buy shares at market $196.51	Downside to $185 MP and gamma pin flips; best paired with hedge.
Short stock	Weak	Do not recommend — dealer buy-back mechanics inside pin favor mean-reversion	Pinning/GEX will punish naked short.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-29 $200 call	Capped upside at $200; assignment vs earnings in May; protects modestly to $200.
Cash-secured put (CSP)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $190 put (or sell $190/$185 put spread)	Gamma flip < $140; risk between spot and MP if pin breaks; use defined-risk put spread if uncomfortable with assignment.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-29 $200 call	Front-week IV cheap but premium elevated for multi-week; high time decay if rally stalls.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-17 $185/$180 put spread	Costs vs low short-term IV; tail risk if gamma-buying stops near $195.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-29 $182.5/$172.5 put x $210/$220 call (adjust widths to credit)	VIX spike or trend beyond EM bounds; need active management near MP shifts.
Calendar / diagonal	Strong	Sell near-term 2026-04-17 $195 call, buy 2026-05-29 $195 call (sell lower IV leg) — term IV diff ~+8.7 vol pts	Assignment on short leg; requires managing if spot diverges from pin; benefits from time decay and pinning.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-17 LEAP call ~ $200 strike (if available) and sell 2026-05-29 $200 calls — longer-dated bullish diagonal	Roll risk and capital outlay; benefits from structural bull thesis if you want long-dated exposure.
Buy-write collar (defined-risk)	Moderate	Long stock + sell 2026-05-29 $200 call + buy 2026-05-29 $185 put	Cost of put reduces credit; protects to $185 MP level.

Top Plays

Sell 30–45d Calendar on $195 (sell near-term, buy longer)

Sell 2026-04-17 $195 call, buy 2026-05-29 $195 call

Exploits cheap near-term IV (4/17 ATM ~30.9%) vs richer 5/29 (~39.8%); pinning GEX near $195 should keep short leg range-bound while you hold longer exposure.

Credit: $0.75-$1.25

Max loss: Difference between strikes of synthetic if unhedged (manage via rolls)

BE: Manage via delta/rolls; primary risk if spot >$205

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit on realized decay; if spot >$200 roll short leg up or close.

Traders wanting directional upside with limited theta bleed

Sell 30–45d Iron Condor centered inside EM

Sell 2026-05-29 $182.5/$172.5 put spread and sell $210/$220 call spread

Leverages large GEX pinning and EM bounds ($184.86–$208.16) to collect rich mid-term premium with defined risk.

Credit: $3.25-$4.25

Max loss: $15.75

BE: Lower breakeven ~179.25 upper ~214.25

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit or if spot breaches a wing by 1%–2%.

Defined-risk premium sellers who accept management

Sell 4–7d Put Spread (tactical near MP hedge)

Sell 2026-04-17 $190/$185 put spread

Short-dated defined-risk premium trade aligned with dealer buying into dips and area support; benefits from impending pin and cheap 3–6d IV.

Credit: $0.90-$1.40

Max loss: $4.10

BE: $189.10

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit; cut if spot < $188 for 30+ min or if volume spikes indicating MP shift.

Small accounts wanting defined risk premium

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot holds >= $195 for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-17 $195 call and buy 2026-05-29 $195 call (calendar)

IFIf spot tags $190 and bounces within 60 minutes → Sell 2026-04-17 $190/$185 put spread

IFIf spot falls and trades < $193.47 (2d lower EM) → Avoid new naked short premium; switch to defined-protection (buy 2026-05-29 $185 put)

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot > $202.72 (1w upper EM) → Close short call calendars or roll short legs +$5 to maintain position

ADJIf spot drops < $190.29 (1w lower EM) → Wind down iron condor puts or widen/roll put spreads down to 172.5–182.5 strikes

Exit Triggers

EXITIf VIX > 25 or front-week IV doubles (≥50% of current) → Exit all short premium positions immediately

EXITIf trade reaches 60% of max profit → Take profit on that leg/position

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: GEX-driven pin around $195–$200 with multi-week bullish flow but max-pain trend to $180–$185; invalidation for pin/range thesis is a sustained break below $190. Favor selling near-term premium and buying longer-dated protection or calls — top plays: $195 calendar (best for directional with limited theta), 5/29 iron condor (defined-risk premium), 4/17 $190/$185 put spread (tactical).

Read the Directional analysis for NVDA for 2026-04-14. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.