NVDA
NVIDIA CorporationClose $214.86EOD onlyThis page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.
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You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.
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Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term pin toward the $175 max-pain but an above-MP spot and strong positive GEX create a sticky range ~ $178.6–$185.6 over 2 days; Confidence: 7.5/10. Strong supporting signals: GEX +$681.7M concentrated at $182.50/$180/$185, net premium inflow $277.3M and bullish top-flow at $180/$185, and MP anchored at $175 across near expiries; conflict: spot sits 4.0% above MP which limits upside without sustained buyflow.
Conflicts: Spot 4.0% above MP and call OI wall $195–$200 creates resistance; longer-dated IV lift (May/June) suggests event/term premium for upside.
Regime Classification
Price Range Forecast
Key Levels
Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)
GEX: $+681.7M
DEX: +381.1M shares
Gamma flip: ~$140 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 91,574 (23.1% below spot))
NTM gamma: Near-term positive gamma concentrated at $182.50 (+$137.7M), $180 (+$85.1M) and $185 (+$61.9M) — dealers will sell deltas on upticks and buy deltas on downticks, creating mean-reversion; a ±2% move (~$178–$186) will materially reduce hedging needs near the pins, but a move below $175 or above $195 removes pin hedges and accelerates directional flows.
IV Analysis
IV vs VIX: Near-term ATM IV ~32–33% (2–12d) is normal-to-low versus longer-dated ATM 34–40% and aggregate avg IV 44.1%, implying near-dated selling is favored.
Term structure: Mildly upward after 3 weeks: 2–12d ~31–33% then 23–44d 34–40% — front-end cheap vs monthly/quarterly expiries (calendar/diagonal fertile).
Skew: Skew: large skew to high-IV deep OTM puts (140 PUT OI 91,574) and elevated May/June IV; mispriced opportunity: sell longer-dated vol (May 5/22 ATM 39.9%) and buy front 4/10 ATM 32.9% (reverse calendar) to capture ~+7.0 vol-pt differential.
Flow Analysis
Net premium: + $277.3M bullish; P/C vol 0.68 indicates call-dominant flow
Directional prints: 32 put 182.5 ITM 4/10 — Large print vol=32,926 vs OI=1,100 (29.9x) — could be aggressive hedging or long-protective bought puts; consistent with dealers selling premium and buyers buying protection into pin. 35.2 put 180 OTM 4/10 — Huge flow vol=48,060 OI=5,429 — likely institutional short-dated protection or rolling hedges; alternative is large sellers carrying puts but overall flow and net premium favor protective buys interpretation.
Unusual: 32 put 182.5 ITM 4/10 — Single standout: 4/10 182.5P vol 32,926 (29.9x) — heavy short-dated protection into pin; more consistent with buyers of downside insurance given bullish net premium but could be dispersal hedges.
Risks & Catalysts
Strategy Viability
| Strategy | Edge | Best Setup | Primary Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long stock | Moderate-Weak | Buy NVDA shares at market $182.08 | Exposure to sharp downside toward MP $175 and large IV drops; leverage risk |
| Short stock | Weak | Avoid initiating naked short — pin and positive GEX create mean-reversion | Dealer hedging likely to push spot back toward pins causing losses |
| Covered call | Moderate | Buy stock and sell 5/22 195 call (sell higher OI cap) | Capped upside at call OI wall; earnings or gap risk through late-May |
| Cash-secured put / put spread | Moderate-Strong | Sell 5/22 175 put or sell 5/22 180/175 put spread | Pin toward $175 at weekly expiries — gap risk into MP; need margin for assignment |
| Long calls | Moderate-Weak | Buy 5/22 190 call to express upside beyond call OI wall | Time decay and high long-dated IV; downside if pin holds |
| Long puts / bear put spread | Moderate | Buy 4/10 182.5 put and sell 4/10 175 put (weekend tactical bear spread) | Crush if pin holds; limited by defined risk but short-dated vega exposure |
| Iron condor | Moderate-Strong | Sell 4/10 177.5/172.5 put spread and sell 4/10 185/190 call spread (defined-risk weekly condor around EM bounds) | Pin release outside EM bounds or VIX spike; close if spot <175 or >187.5 |
| Reverse calendar (sell longer-dated) | Strong | Sell 5/22 182.5 and buy 4/10 182.5 (reverse calendar) — sell higher-IV long-dated leg (39.9%) and buy cheaper front (32.9%) | Negative carry if front vol spikes or large directional gap; margin and assignment considerations on sold longer-dated leg |
| PMCC / LEAPS diagonal | Moderate-Strong | Buy 5/22 (or 7/17) LEAP call (~45–100 DTE) and sell shorter 4/10–5/01 calls at 185–190 to finance — use 5/22 190 long / 4/10 185 short as example | Assignment on short leg; requires margin and directional conviction over multi-week period |
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Tactical Summary
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