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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $97.31EOD only
Max Pain
$100.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.33
3.4% from close
Price Gap
+2.69
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
93
High premium
P/C OI
0.88
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 17, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

High-confidence pinning/bullish flow into near-term April/May expiries; expected IV crush moderate post-event but skew and call concentration favor downside pin-to-strike behavior around $95–100.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Put OI concentration sits concentrated at ~$84–94 with heavy call walls and call flow near $95–100 indicating pinning pressure toward ~$98–100.
📌Pinning likelihood high: heavy call flow and max-pain near $98–100
⚠️Key put floor ~84 — breach triggers gamma flip and accelerated downside toward ~73

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,171 (23.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (87 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (4d): ±$2.73 (2.9%)
  • 2026-05-01 (11d): ±$4.18 (4.4%)
  • 2026-05-08 (18d): ±$5.19 (5.5%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-month elevated (~30–33% IV) vs slightly lower near-dated; multi-expiry skew shows call demand into $93–96 and puts concentrated 84–94.

Crush estimate: Moderate IV crush expected (~20–30% of front-month IV), larger for ultra-short dated 4d expiries.

Skew: Call-heavy flow steepens call side; put skew concentrated 84–94 supports pinning until those floors break.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Expected moves ~2.9% (4d) to 5.5% (18d); historical beat rate 60% (3/5) — actual moves roughly in line with expectations.

Directional bias: Slight bullish/pinning bias driven by concentrated call flow and net premium positive; downside risk rises if spot breaches the 84 put floor.

Key Levels

1$73.00 gamma flip
2Max pain pins: $98 (2026-04-24); $99 (2026-05-01); $98 (2026-05-08)

Flow Highlights

Large unusual call prints at $93–96 for 4/24 and multi-week calls at $95–96.

Aggressive call buying/support that can pin into $95–100 zone.

Put OI concentrated at ~$84–94 with heavy 4/24 puts clustered near the upper part of that range.

Put floor around $84 provides initial support; if breached, gamma flip risk accelerates downside toward ~73.

Strategies

Defined-wing iron condor
Sell 2026-05-15 $90.00/$87.00 put wing and $98.00/$102.00 call wing
Credit: $1.34-$1.63
Max loss: $2.37
Max gain: $1.63
BE: 88.37 / 99.63
Trigger: Close or roll if spot approaches wings or IV crush exceeds expectations; tighten if put floor nears $84.
Collects rich front-month premium while capping gamma around expected pin near $98–100.
Outperforms: Sell 5/15 90/87 put wing and 98/102 call wing to profit if spot pins in range; defined loss if put floor breaks.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Call diagonal (calendar-ish)
Sell 2026-05-15 $99.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $100.00 call
Debit: $1.15-$1.40
Max loss: $1.40
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Manage by rolling short call lower or closing into strong upside move; watch delta and IV convergence.
Harvests front-month call demand/decay while keeping upside optionality if pin breaks higher.
Outperforms: Sell 5/15 99 call, buy 6/18 100 call to collect decay and retain capped upside exposure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-05-08 $93.00 put + sell $98.00 call
Credit: $2.82-$3.45
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $3.45
BE: 89.55 / 101.45
Expected move modest; front-month IV rich and call flow pins toward 95–100, supporting collected premium if range holds.
Outperforms: Sell a near-term strangle to collect front-month premium into expected pinning/low realized move.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip risk if spot breaches put floor near ~$84 leading to accelerated downside toward ~73
!Pinning amplifies short-term directional exposure around $95–100
!IV crush may erode premium quickly after print

What to Watch

?Spot vs max pain $98–$100 into 4/24 and 5/01 expiries
?Unusual prints and volume at $93–96 calls and puts clustered 84–94 (4/24)
?Whether put floor ~84 holds; breach would raise gamma/volatility materially
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.