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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $93.24EOD only
Max Pain
$95.00
Next expiry Apr 24, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.82
2.0% from close
Price Gap
+1.76
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
3
Low premium
P/C OI
0.77
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 22, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 23, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Neutral-leaning: IV implies ~6% one-day move; mixed flow (front-month put demand) and concentrated call OI near $95 limit clear directional edge into earnings.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 VIX 19; override: blend of base + flow adjustments
Most important: Heavy short-dated put flow at 90–94 and concentrated call OI at 94–96 magnify downside tail and pin risk around $95 into front expiries.
⚠️Front-dated puts (90–94) showing outsized IV — downside tail priced in.
📌Call OI clustered at 94–96 May may anchor spot near $95 (pin risk).

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,182 (21.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (84 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (1d): ±$1.16 (1.2%)
  • 2026-05-01 (8d): ±$3.22 (3.5%)
  • 2026-05-08 (15d): ±$4.36 (4.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steep front-dated IV (4/24) then drops into May/Jun — short tenors 40–60% higher than 30‑day.

Crush estimate: Front expiries likely see large crush (~60–80% IV drop); May expiries see moderate crush (~30–40%).

Skew: Put skew elevated on 90–94 strikes (front-dated); call skew shows concentration at 94–96 May supporting pinning.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Model-implied ~6% vs realized historical one-day move ~5–6% (past 8 quarters).

Directional bias: Slight upside bias historically on beats, but current protective put demand and pinning reduce expected upside edge.

Key Levels

1$73.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $91.66/$93.98; 1w $89.60/$96.04
3Max pain pins: $95 (2026-04-24); $95 (2026-05-01); $95 (2026-05-08)

Flow Highlights

Large short-dated put prints at 90–94 strikes into 4/24.

Increases demand for downside protection and raises probability of rapid drop into front expiries.

Concentrated call OI at 94–96 May expiries.

Creates pinning pressure near $95 at front-month expiries if spot drifts into that band.

Strategies

Defined-wing iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$75.00 put wing and $105.00/$120.00 call wing
Credit: $2.97-$3.63
Max loss: $11.37
Max gain: $3.63
BE: 81.37 / 108.63
Trigger: Close into early IV collapse or if spot breaches wings; widen or hedge if post-print trend develops.
Collect front IV premium while capping tail risk amid $95 pin risk.
Outperforms: Sell balanced wings around expected pin to harvest steep front-tenor crush with limited loss if pin holds.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Front short / back long call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-01 $94.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $105.00 call
Debit: $0.91-$1.11
Max loss: $1.11
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Buy back short call on rapid IV move or if spot >94–96; roll long if momentum continues.
Exploits steep front-term IV and concentrated 94–96 call OI to sell premium while retaining upside exposure.
Outperforms: Sell short May 94 call, buy Jul 105 call to monetize front crush and keep convex upside if beat.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Short strangle (May)
Sell 2026-05-01 $91.00 put + sell $98.00 call
Credit: $1.01-$1.23
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $1.23
BE: 89.77 / 99.23
Trigger: Manage actively same-day of print; buy protection on tail flow or large move; close into crush.
Highest theta capture but unlimited upside risk vs pin uncertainty.
Outperforms: Sell May 91 put and May 98 call to collect near-term decay ahead of anticipated IV drop.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Guidance risk: consensus revenue beat/fail swings price ~±4–6%
!Product/mix risk: subscription churn or slower ad rev could accentuate downside
!Timing risk: late earnings release or post-close conference can delay price discovery and amplify IV moves
!Front-dated IV dislocation → rapid re-pricing on prints

What to Watch

?4/24 front-month IV vs May to gauge term steepness
?Spot behavior vs 94–96 band for pin detection
?Unusual prints and OI builds at 90–94 puts and 94–96 calls
?Company guidance language and timing of management remarks
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 23, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.