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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $88.60EOD only
Max Pain
$89.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.56
2.9% from close
Price Gap
+0.40
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
22
Low premium
P/C OI
0.78
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings on 2026-04-16 (7 days). High IV regime with strong pinning (GEX +$304.6M) and concentrated dealer hedges around $100–$105. Best strategy: directional/vol-tail trade or structurally sized short premium inside the 1-week EM — e.g., sell premium inside $95–$105 or buy a 102 straddle if you expect a large beat/miss. Key risk: a gap >1w EM (~±7.0% to $94.95/$109.15) or news that breaks dealer pinning and sends price through the concentrated GEX bands.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (Pinning, GEX +$304.6M); +1 regime (Vol High); -1 spot 5.2% above max pain
Most important: Watch IV term-structure kink from 1d ATM 35.5% to 8d ATM 58.9% (large vega opportunity around the 2026-04-17 expiry).
📅Earnings scheduled 2026-04-16 (TBD) — use 2026-04-17 options for the primary earnings vega play.
📈GEX concentration heavy at $100/$101/$102 (total near-term GEX lumps: +$38.7M / +$23.0M / +$23.4M) — expect pinning pressure.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Below $73 dealers flip to negative gamma (put concentration 48,184 at $73; 28.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-16 (7 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-10 (1d): 7: $100.58 - $103.53 (±$1.48, 1.4%)
  • 2026-04-17 (8d): 7: $94.95 - $109.15 (±$7.10, 7.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp front-week spike: 2026-04-10 ATM 35.5% then 2026-04-17 ATM 58.9% (kink indicates earnings/VaR concentrated into the 8d expiry).

Crush estimate: Post-event IV likely to reprice from ~58.9% (8d) back toward the belly (mid-40s) — roughly a 13-20 vol-point drop vs the 8d level (to ~38-45%).

Skew: Put/call skew fairly balanced but top premium flow and OI skew towards calls (heavy call premium at $100 and $105); short-dated puts cheaper (1d ATM 35.5% vs 8d 58.9%).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters: beats at 2025-12-31, 2025-06-30, 2025-03-31; miss at 2025-09-30)

Avg move vs expected: Not provided in dataset; price-action historically mixed but recent surprise record is tilted to small beats.

Directional bias: Mixed to slightly bullish (3 of last 4 quarters beat estimates)

Key Levels

1$100.00 (GEX +$38.7M, pin magnet, -2.0% from spot)
2$102.00 (GEX +$23.4M, pin magnet, -0.0% from spot)
3$101.00 (GEX +$23.0M, pin magnet, -1.0% from spot)
4$105.00 (GEX +$19.8M, resistance pin, +2.9% from spot)
5$97.00 (Max Pain 2026-04-10, within range)

Flow Highlights

Heavy net call premium at $100: Call $19,078,546 / Put $2,414,194 → Net $16,664,352

Large directional/hedged upside exposure concentrated at-the-money — buys or dealer sales likely to supply call hedges that pin near $100-$102 into expiry.

Large call premium at $105: Call $7,816,888 / Put $557,184 → Net $7,259,703

Upside interest continues into $105; combined with GEX at $105 this produces resistance/pinning pressure just above spot.

Strategies

Short iron (short premium inside 1-week EM)
Sell 2026-04-17 101/99 put vertical and sell 104/106 call vertical (collect credit).
Credit: $1.50-$2.50
Max loss: $3.50
Max gain: $2.50
BE: Downside ~99 - credit; Upside ~104 + credit (depends on executed credit)
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings when IV for 4/17 stays elevated and mid prices match expected credit band.
Pinning/GEX concentrated at $100-$105 and bullish call flow suggest dealers will try to hedge/keep price inside the EM; collect rich short-dated premium (8d ATM 58.9%).
Outperforms: Stock stays inside the 8d EM $94.95-$109.15 (specifically remains between ~99 and ~104 into expiry).
Underperforms: Gap move outside the 1-week EM by >50% (e.g., swift move below $97 or above $109).
Long 102 straddle (VEGA play)
Buy 2026-04-17 102C + 102P (straddle) — use mid prices: 102C mid ~4.10, 102P mid ~3.85 => cost ~7.95
Debit: $7.80-$8.10
Max loss: $7.95
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Downside 94.10 / Upside 109.00 (102 7 7.95)
Trigger: Enter up to 1 day before earnings if IV hasn't ripped above current 58.9% for 4/17 or if you expect a directional shock.
8d ATM IV priced at 58.9% implies large vega; straddle captures asymmetric upside to a big surprise given recent beat-rate.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds breakeven (~±7.8, >7.6% move) or when IV pops further pre-earnings.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $102 and IV collapses post-release (expected IV reversion of ~13-20 vol points).
Call spread (defined-risk upside)
Buy 2026-04-24 102/110 call vertical (longer-dated to retain vega after initial crush)
Debit: $1.50-$2.50
Max loss: $2.50
Max gain: $7.50
BE: Approx 104.5 (cost + 102 entry) depending on executed price
Trigger: Enter immediately after earnings if you see directional continuation and want defined-risk upside exposure beyond the 1-week EM.
Longer-dated spread avoids full IV crush while capping cost; uses high call interest at $110 as logical sell target.
Outperforms: Post-earnings rally sustains above ~104 and into the 1-2 week EM high of $109.15.
Underperforms: Reaction fades after open or price stays inside $100-$105.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 1-week EM ±7.0% ($94.95-$109.15). Earnings guidance or major surprise could gap beyond this — iron/condor sellers exposed to large tail losses.
!IV crush: 8d ATM 58.9% can reprice back toward mid-40s post-release (estimated 13-20 vol-point drop). Long straddle vega is vulnerable to IV reversion unless move is large.
!Liquidity: Option chain liquid at 100/102/104/105 strikes (large OI and flow), but wide spreads can appear on very short-dated legs — size accordingly.
!Dealer pinning: High GEX (+$304.6M) increases chance of intraday pin behavior near $100-$105; sudden flow flips can cause rapid unwinds.
!Sizing: Favor smaller position sizes for short premium vs larger allocations for defined-risk trades because of max-gap exposure.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into 2026-04-17 (watch 8d ATM move from 58.9% higher or lower).
?Unusual activity at 102/104/100 strikes (noted heavy call premium and unusual flow on 2026-04-10 expiries).
?Price reaction through the GEX clusters at $100 / $101 / $102 and whether dealers defend those pins.
?Max Pain changes: next-dated MP $97 (2026-04-10) vs weekly MP trend falling — a fast shift lower would favor puts.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.