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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $87.66EOD only
Max Pain
$90.00
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.27
2.6% from close
Price Gap
+2.34
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
15
Low premium
P/C OI
0.75
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 12, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Strong bullish setup with heavy call buying, pinning to $90, and high IV.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 VIX 18
Most important: Pinning to $90 and massive call volume at $88/$89 for 2d expiry suggests near-term bullish squeeze pressure.
📈Heavy call volume at $88/$89 for 2d expiry
🛡️Put OI concentrated at $73 provides floor support
⚡VIX at 18 supports elevated premium environment

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,292 (16.6% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (64 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-15 (2d): ±$1.91 (2.2%)
  • 2026-05-22 (9d): ±$3.54 (4.0%)
  • 2026-05-29 (16d): ±$4.43 (5.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end elevated, term structure steep (2d IV ~31%).

Crush estimate: Post-event crush ~20-30% based on historical moves.

Skew: Skew slightly bullish; puts lower IV than calls, put OI concentrated at $73.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Avg move 2.2% matches implied ±2.2%.

Directional bias: 60% beat rate, no clear directional bias.

Key Levels

1$73.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $85.64/$89.47; 1w $84.02/$91.10
3Max pain pins: $90 (2026-05-15); $91 (2026-05-22); $90 (2026-05-29)

Flow Highlights

Heavy call buying at $88/$89 for 2d expiry, volume 30k+ each.

Bullish squeeze attempt pinning near $90 max pain.

Long-dated calls at $66-$76 strikes with volume spikes.

Institutional bullish positioning for long-term upside.

Strategies

Short Strangle
Sell 2026-05-22 $83.00 put + sell $90.00 call
Credit: $1.08-$1.33
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $1.33
BE: 81.67 / 91.33
Trigger: Set stop-loss on short call if spot breaches $91; roll if IV spikes or spot tests strikes.
Exploits high IV and pinning at $90; profits from time decay and range-bound price action near earnings.
Outperforms: Sells OTM put and call to collect premium with defined risk except gap risk.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Call Calendar
Sell 2026-05-22 $90.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $90.00 call
Debit: $1.43-$1.74
Max loss: $1.74
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Adjust if spot rises above $90 moving short call to ATM.
Leverages steep front-end IV; benefits if near-term IV drops or spot stays below $90.
Outperforms: Sells short-term $90 call and buys longer-term call to profit from volatility term structure.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long Strangle
Buy 2026-07-17 $85.00 put + buy $90.00 call
Debit: $7.58-$9.27
Max loss: $9.27
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 75.73 / 99.27
Trigger: Exit if spot moves near one strike; consider early profit taking on volatility spikes.
Captures large earnings move with lower upfront cost; no directional bias needed.
Outperforms: Buys OTM put and call to profit from a significant price move beyond the strikes.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Iron condor
Sell 2026-05-22 $83.00/$78.00 put wing and $90.00/$95.00 call wing
Credit: $0.77-$0.94
Max loss: $4.06
Max gain: $0.94
BE: 82.06 / 90.94
High front-end IV and pinning to $90 suggest range-bound; iron condor profits from time decay.
Outperforms: Capture premium from elevated near-term IV with defined risk wings.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.

Risk Assessment

!2d expiry gamma risk: if spot fails at $90, calls expire worthless.
!Put floor at $73 provides support but wide gap to spot (~$87).
!VIX 18 implies elevated premium; 64d out adds time decay risk.

What to Watch

?Spot relative to $90 max pain and $89.47 EM guardrail.
?Volume in $88/$89 2d calls for squeeze confirmation.
?Large put activity at higher strikes as hedging.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.