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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $107.79EOD only
Max Pain
$95.00
Next expiry Apr 17, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.92
7.3% from close
Price Gap
-12.79
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
0.82
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 16, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

High-confidence pinning environment into NFLX earnings window; skewed call interest near $97–101 suggests upside pin risk to ~$100.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17; override: Strong aligned flow/GEX, spot near MP, low VIX
Most important: Call-heavy flow and GEX concentration near $97–101 driving pinning risk.
📌Call-heavy flow concentrated at $97–101 signals strong pinning pressure.
📉Nearest-expiry IV likely to fall ~8–12 pts after release; front-week already low (~4–5%).
⚖️60% historical beat rate gives mild upside bias but not decisive.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,167 (25.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (90 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-24 (7d): ±$3.33 (3.4%)
  • 2026-05-01 (14d): ±$4.62 (4.7%)
  • 2026-05-08 (21d): ±$5.55 (5.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-dated IV elevated (~28–32%) for 4/24–5/01; ultra-short front-week (4/17) is markedly lower (~4–5%).

Crush estimate: Expect nearest expiries IV to drop to ~18–22% post-release (absolute decline ≈8–12 volatility points); front-week already ~4–5% so limited further absolute crush there.

Skew: Call-skew into $96–101 strikes; put OI concentrated below spot (~48k at $73), supporting upside pinning.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves roughly in line with expected: 60% beat rate; realized moves often near 3–6%.

Directional bias: Mild upside bias from recent beat rate and call-dominant flow.

Key Levels

1$73.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $93.98/$100.64
3Max pain pins: $97 (2026-04-17); $100 (2026-04-24); $100 (2026-05-01)

Flow Highlights

Heavy call prints 97–101 across 4/24–5/01 expiries (large volume vs OI).

Short-term pinning pressure to ~$100 from call accumulation.

Large unusual 5/22 $88 put print (high vol/oi).

Tail downside hedging or cheap long-protection beyond near-term expiries.

Strategies

Post-earnings bull call spread
Buy 2026-06-18 $100.00/$110.00 call spread
Debit: $2.36-$2.89
Max loss: $2.89
Max gain: $7.11
BE: $102.89
Trigger: Enter near or below $2.5; trim or roll if spot clears 101 or IV fails to normalize
Captures mild upside while capping cost amid call-driven pinning near $97–101.
Outperforms: Buy Jun18 100/110 to ride upside after nearest-IV crush; limited risk vs large tail move.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.
OTM long strangle (cheaper exposure)
Buy 2026-06-18 $91.00 put + buy $108.00 call
Debit: $3.29-$4.02
Max loss: $4.02
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 86.98 / 112.02
Trigger: Scale in size, take partial profits on one wing if pin resolves to ~100
Keeps post-event exposure while limiting premium vs straddle; benefits from pin breakout.
Outperforms: Buy Jun18 91P/108C for lower cost to catch >~6% moves either way.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.
Short-dated straddle (high premium, low liquidity)
Buy 2026-05-29 $98.00 put + buy $98.00 call
Debit: $6.93-$8.47
Max loss: $8.47
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 89.53 / 106.47
Trigger: Use small size, exit quickly post-release or on IV collapse Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Open interest below 25.
Max sensitivity to realized move but expensive and poor liquidity.
Outperforms: May win if a large (>~6%) surprise occurs; front-week crush risk and wide bid-ask.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Pinning risk concentrates spot near $100 into expiries
!Nearest-expiry IV can drop 8–12 pts post-release
!Flow concentration may unwind quickly, reversing directional pressure

What to Watch

?Spot relative to max pain $97–100 into 4/24 and 5/01 expiries
?Follow-through on 4/24 call volumes and 5/22 put positioning
?IV on nearest expiries vs front-week (watch absolute IV gap)

Read the Earnings analysis for NFLX for 2026-04-17. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.