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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $89.33EOD only
Max Pain
$89.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.44
2.7% from close
Price Gap
-0.33
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
13
Low premium
P/C OI
0.78
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 19, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

NFLX earnings 62 days out; heavy call flow and pinning gamma suggest bullish bias but spot below max pain; IV elevated with strong call buying.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Heavy call OI build at $92 and $87, net premium $18.9M positive, indicating bullish positioning ahead of earnings.
📈Net premium $18.9M positive; call volume 2.2x puts.
⚠️Spot below max pain ($88) but gamma pinning positive.
📊Historical beat rate 60%, modest bullish bias.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,301 (16.1% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (62 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (7d): ±$2.92 (3.3%)
  • 2026-05-29 (14d): ±$3.98 (4.6%)
  • 2026-06-05 (21d): ±$5.06 (5.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-dated IV elevated (~24% annualized) and relatively flat; longer-term lower but elevated vs VIX.

Crush estimate: Expected 30-40% IV decline post-earnings in July.

Skew: Put skew elevated with large OI at $73-$75; call wall at $100-$125 suggests upside positioning.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data; historical moves not provided.

Directional bias: Moderate bullish bias due to 60% historical beat rate.

Key Levels

1$73.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $84.10/$89.93
3Max pain pins: $88 (2026-05-15); $90 (2026-05-22); $90 (2026-05-29)

Flow Highlights

Heavy call buying in $92 strike June 18 expiration (21k volume vs 4.5k OI, 4.7x ratio).

Bullish bet on NFLX above $92 by June; indicates institutional accumulation.

Unusual put activity in deep OTM $20 put with 11k volume (4.2x OI), likely hedging.

Hedging or speculative downside bet; not directional conviction.

Strategies

Iron condor
Sell 2026-06-05 $85.00/$82.00 put wing and $94.00/$97.00 call wing
Credit: $0.98-$1.20
Max loss: $1.80
Max gain: $1.20
BE: 83.80 / 95.20
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings if spot approaches wings.
Defined risk near max pain and heavy call OI; captures elevated IV and crush with high win probability.
Outperforms: Sells $85/$82 put spread and $94/$97 call spread; profit if spot stays near $88.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short strangle
Sell 2026-06-05 $85.00 put + sell $94.00 call
Credit: $1.90-$2.33
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $2.33
BE: 82.67 / 96.33
Trigger: Set stop loss if spot breaches $82 or $94; roll wings if challenged.
Higher premium than condor but riskier; suits bullish bias with support at $82.
Outperforms: Sells $85 put and $94 call; profits from time decay and IV crush.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-22 $89.00 call / buy 2026-06-26 $90.00 call
Debit: $1.71-$2.09
Max loss: $2.09
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Close or roll short leg if spot approaches $89; hold long leg through earnings.
Bullish directional play benefiting from short-dated IV elevation; lower probability but higher upside.
Outperforms: Sells short-term $89 call, buys longer-term $90 call; profits if spot rallies modestly.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma flip at $73 could accelerate downside if spot breaks support.
!Call OI concentration at $100+ suggests potential resistance if upside moves quickly.
!Short-term IV is expensive; theta decay high for long options.

What to Watch

?Max pain $88 today; spot action around $87-$88.
?Call OI at $92 (June) and $87 (today) as key levels.
?Net premium direction and put/call ratio for sentiment shift.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.