thetaOwl
HomeOptionsNFLXReports

NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $83.33EOD only
Max Pain
$86.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.16
2.6% from close
Price Gap
+2.67
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
33
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.79
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 2, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 15, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Earnings Verdict

7.5/10 — Best strategy is defined-risk premium harvesting or directional defined-risk debit (depending on view). Short-defined premium (put-credit / iron-condor) is viable given heavy dealer pinning and large front-end call concentration; buy-vol (long straddle/strangle) is expensive because 2d ATM IV is ~99.7%. Key risk: a surprise print or guidance swing that breaks dealer pinning and produces a >7.2% gap (beyond the 2‑day EM rails).

Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 13.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Most important: Front-week IV (2026-04-17 ATM 99.7%) and net bullish dealer GEX (+$312.8M) create a pinning regime around the $110–$112 area — watch whether order flow supports the pin into/through earnings or a shock breaks the pin and triggers rapid re-pricing.
📅Earnings on 2026-04-16 (1d) — front-week IV is extremely expensive (ATM 99.7% for 2026-04-17).
🧲Dealer pinning concentrated at $110 and $112 (+$14.2M and +$28.3M GEX) — expect magnet behavior unless guidance forces a break.
⚠️Max pain for 2026-04-17 is $95 (well below spot) — if sellers become aggressive, downside acceleration risk increases.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-16 (1 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-17 (2d): ±$7.77 (7.2%)
  • 2026-04-24 (9d): ±$4.08 (3.8%)
  • 2026-05-01 (16d): ±$8.92 (8.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Very steep front-week skew: 2d ATM IV 99.7% collapsing to ~59.2% at 9d and ~48.5% at 16d — classic event kink with rich near-term premium.

Crush estimate: Very high crush risk for the 2026-04-17 expiration — expect >40–50 vol-point drop from front-day IV to the 1‑week tenor; post-event ATM IV likely to settle near the 9–16d levels (59%→49%), implying material option premium decay.

Skew: Downside puts are relatively less crowded in front expirations vs calls (net premium and OI skew bullish); upside call walls at 120–140 and concentrated call premium at $110 and $112 indicate dealers are long gamma near-the-money and will hedge into moves, supporting pinning.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: NFLX has historically beaten the baseline EM often; beat rate 75% (3/4 quarters) suggests a modest upside tilt vs the consensus move, but past realized moves sometimes stayed within implied bands.

Directional bias: Slight upside bias into prints (historical beat rate 75%), which aligns with current net bullish flow (+$106.8M) and positive GEX positioning.

Key Levels

1EM guardrails: 2d $99.93/$115.48; 1w $103.63/$111.78
2Max pain pins: $95 (2026-04-17); $97 (2026-04-24); $99 (2026-05-01)

Flow Highlights

Large concentrated call premium at $110 and $112 in the front cycles

Dealer hedging likely to create pinning pressure in the $110–$112 neighborhood (matches deterministic support/resistance and GEX concentrations of +$14.2M at $110 and +$28.3M at $112).

Net premium skewed strongly bullish: Call net at $110 = $16,380,688

Significant buyer interest in upside calls may amplify dealer delta-hedging toward upside, reinforcing spot-vs-max-pain dynamics above MP.

Strategies

Defined-risk put credit under the EM
Sell 2026-04-24 $102.00/$97.00 put spread
Credit: $0.99-$1.20
Max loss: $3.80
Max gain: $1.20
BE: $100.80
Trigger: Close into post-print IV crush or tighten/roll if price approaches the short put (close if spot breaches support $98.78 or EM lower rail $99.93).
Best risk-adjusted way to monetize front-cycle rich premium while staying aligned with dealer pinning and the slight upside bias (75% historical beat rate).
Outperforms: Sell a short-dated put-credit spread anchored just below the 1‑week/2‑day guardrail (target short-put delta ~25% in the 9–16d window, long put ~12% as hedge). This harvests elevated IV while capping downside beyond the width.
Underperforms: Break below support threatens short-put strike.
Bull-call spread into the $110–$116 area
Buy 2026-04-24 $111.00/$120.00 call spread
Debit: $1.83-$2.24
Max loss: $2.24
Max gain: $6.76
BE: $113.24
Trigger: Take profits on 50% realized move toward short strike or adjust if IV collapses but spot remains below the short strike.
A cheaper way to express the historical upside bias and concentrated upside flows at $110–$112 without paying full front-week straddle vol.
Outperforms: Buy a nearer-term (9–37d) call and sell a higher strike call to limit cost; target strikes that capture the $110–$116 range where dealer hedging and call OI are concentrated.
Underperforms: Loss of support weakens upside continuation thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: High — a surprise (EPS or guidance) can gap beyond 2‑day EM ($99.93–$115.48) and immediately overwhelm short-dated premium sellers.
!IV crush: Very material for 2026-04-17 positions — front-week IV ~99.7% implies a large vega unwind post-release; buys benefit from realized move but long vol is expensive.
!Liquidity: Good across major strikes (notably $110, $112, $120) but front-week spreads may have wide bid/ask during prints; use limit orders and staggered entries.
!Sizing: Prefer defined-risk structures and smaller position sizes for outright long-vol due to high front IV and potential for rapid re-pricing.

What to Watch

?Front-expiry IV slope between 2026-04-17 and 2026-04-24 (expect rapid collapse if print is less volatile than priced).
?Spot action relative to GEX pins at $110.00 and $112.00 (both within +10% of spot) — sustained move through these levels can flip dealer hedging behavior.
?Unusual activity in the 2026-04-17 PUT $107 and CALL $117 contracts (both flagged in unusual flow) as proxies for directional positioning ahead of release.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.