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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $89.30EOD only
Max Pain
$89.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.29
1.4% from close
Price Gap
-0.30
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
23
Low premium
P/C OI
0.79
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

High confidence bullish setup; strong flow alignment, gamma pinning at $89.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.4% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Massive 5/29 $89C buy and long-dated $73/$74 calls signal sustained bullish conviction.
🔴Max pain $89 with 13.7k call OI expiring today; spot near.
🟢11k vol on 5/29 $89C vs 4k OI; strong bullish flow.
🟡Long-dated calls at $73/$74 (Jan '27) show sustainable bullish outlook.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 59,411 (15.3% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (55 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-29 (7d): ±$2.56 (2.9%)
  • 2026-06-05 (14d): ±$3.97 (4.5%)
  • 2026-06-12 (21d): ±$5.05 (5.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV 25-29%, long-dated ~50%, steep contango; earnings 55d away.

Crush estimate: Minimal immediate crush.

Skew: Put skew elevated at deep OTM strikes.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical beat rate 60% (3/5); expected moves ±2.9% to ±5.7%.

Directional bias: Slightly bullish but mixed.

Key Levels

1$75.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $86.03/$91.16
3Max pain pins: $89 (2026-05-22); $89 (2026-05-29); $89 (2026-06-05)

Flow Highlights

Massive call buying at $89 for May 29; vol 11k vs OI 4k.

Bullish sentiment targeting pin.

Aggressive long-dated call buys at $73/$74 (Jan 2027).

Long-term bullish conviction.

Strategies

Call Diagonal Contango Play
Sell 2026-05-29 $89.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $90.00 call
Debit: $3.23-$3.94
Max loss: $3.94
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if NFLX falls below $84.63; roll short call if tested.
Exploits steep contango; short call decay funds long premium.
Outperforms: Sell 5/29 $89C, buy 7/17 $90C for net credit.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Earnings Iron Condor
Sell 2026-05-29 $85.00/$84.00 put wing and $89.00/$90.00 call wing
Credit: $0.42-$0.52
Max loss: $0.48
Max gain: $0.52
BE: 84.48 / 89.52
Trigger: Close if NFLX breaks $86 or $91.
Captures high IV premium with defined risk.
Outperforms: Sell $85/$84 put spread and $89/$90 call spread.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Long Strangle for Breakout
Buy 2026-07-17 $85.00 put + buy $95.00 call
Debit: $5.42-$6.63
Max loss: $6.63
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 78.37 / 101.63
Trigger: Stop-loss at 50% of premium; adjust on trend.
Benefits from large move if pin releases.
Outperforms: Buy 7/17 $85 put and $95 call.
Underperforms: Insufficient realized move reduces long-strangle edge.

Risk Assessment

!Gamma pin at $89 may fail if spot breaks $86.03/$91.16.
!Heavy near-term OI concentration at $89 risks sharp move.
!Long-dated calls face time decay if catalysts disappoint.

What to Watch

?Spot action around $89 pin; volume/OI changes in 5/29.
?Continued unusual call buying in near-month expirations.
?Macro conditions (VIX 16.7) and market direction.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.