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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $88.09EOD only
Max Pain
$89.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.90
2.1% from close
Price Gap
+0.91
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
20
Low premium
P/C OI
0.79
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

NFLX 57d to earnings; IV term steep; bullish flow with deep OTM call accumulation; bearish put hedge present; beat rate 60%.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.0% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Unusual Jan 2027 $68C and Jun 2026 $114P suggest divergent views; net premium call-side.
🎯Max pain $90 for near-term expirations; potential pinning.
🚀Deep OTM call buying Jan 2027 $68C signals bullish conviction.
🛡️Large put buy Jun 2026 $114P suggests hedging or bearish bet.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,612 (14.9% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (57 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-22 (2d): ±$1.90 (2.2%)
  • 2026-05-29 (9d): ±$3.34 (3.8%)
  • 2026-06-05 (16d): ±$4.52 (5.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Upward sloping: near-term IV ~22% ann., earnings-dated ~36%.

Crush estimate: Post-earnings IV crush ~40-60%.

Skew: Call skew elevated; puts relatively cheap.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Moves near implied historically.

Directional bias: Neutral; beats tend to move higher.

Key Levels

1$75.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $86.19/$89.98; 1w $84.75/$91.43
3Max pain pins: $89 (2026-05-22); $90 (2026-05-29); $90 (2026-06-05)

Flow Highlights

Large call buyer: Jan 2027 $68C (1017 vol vs 331 OI).

Bullish long-term bet on stock appreciation.

Large put buyer: Jun 2026 $114P (1480 vol vs 482 OI).

Bearish hedge or speculative downside protection.

Strategies

Call Calendar
Sell 2026-05-29 $90.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $90.00 call
Debit: $3.28-$4.01
Max loss: $4.01
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit near earnings or if invalidation level broken.
Best exploits upward IV term structure with defined risk.
Outperforms: Sell May $90C buy Jul $90C; net vega neutral.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Iron Condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$80.00 put wing and $95.00/$100.00 call wing
Credit: $2.46-$3.00
Max loss: $2.00
Max gain: $3.00
BE: 82.00 / 98.00
Trigger: Hold through earnings or close early if IV spikes.
Defined risk neutral play in high IV environment.
Outperforms: Sell $85/$80 put and $95/$100 call wings; max gain 3.00.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-17 $80.00 put + sell $95.00 call
Credit: $4.18-$5.10
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $5.10
BE: 74.90 / 100.10
Trigger: Set stop-loss; exit before earnings to avoid crush.
Highest premium but unlimited risk; use with caution.
Outperforms: Sell $80 put and $95 call; max gain 5.10.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!IV crush risk if holding through earnings.
!Gamma risk near max pain $89-$90.
!Bearish risk from macro or subscriber miss.

What to Watch

?IV term evolution; support $83.57; resistance $90, $92.61.
?Unusual call activity continuation; put wall $73-$75.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.