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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $87.56EOD only
Max Pain
$90.00
Next expiry May 15, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.92
2.2% from close
Price Gap
+2.44
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
25
Low premium
P/C OI
0.74
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 13, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings Jul 16, 63d out. Spot ~$84.3, MP $90. Historical beat rate 60%. IV elevated, gamma pinning near $90.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.4% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Gamma pinning at $90; massive call volume at $89; risk of downside gap if broken.
🟢Massive 55k $89 call vol signals aggressive bullish pinning to $90.
🔴$102 put buying at 123% IV indicates downside hedging.
⚠️Spot 6.8% below MP $90; gamma flip at $73 suggests crash risk if support fails.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,292 (16.0% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-07-16 (63 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-15 (1d): ±$1.18 (1.4%)
  • 2026-05-22 (8d): ±$3.10 (3.6%)
  • 2026-05-29 (15d): ±$4.04 (4.6%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Short-term IV elevated (22% ann) declining to ~19% for 15d, indicating near-term uncertainty.

Crush estimate: No near-term crush; post-earnings IV crush expected Jul 16.

Skew: Put skew elevated with high OI at $102 and $101 puts; protective demand.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 60% (3/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Limited data; average move about in line with implied moves historically.

Directional bias: Slightly bullish on earnings beats but inconsistent; 60% beat rate.

Key Levels

1$73.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $85.77/$88.12; 1w $83.84/$90.05
3Max pain pins: $90 (2026-05-15); $90 (2026-05-22); $90 (2026-05-29)

Flow Highlights

Unusual 55k vol on 5/15 $89 Call, OI 16.9k; massive bullish bet near current price.

Indicates aggressive bullish positioning pinning to max pain $90.

Purchase of 1050 $102 Puts on 5/15 at high IV (123%); bearish hedge.

Downside protection in case of selloff; suggests risk aversion.

Strategies

Short strangle near pin
Sell 2026-05-22 $84.00 put + sell $90.00 call
Credit: $0.91-$1.12
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $1.12
BE: 82.88 / 91.12
Trigger: Monitor $90 call wall; close if spot breaks $84 or above $90.
Gamma pinning at $90 and high IV favor theta decay; spot at $84.3. Liquidity strong.
Outperforms: Sells 84 put and 90 call on 8d expiry to capture premium from pinning and time decay.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Iron condor on high IV
Sell 2026-05-22 $84.00/$77.00 put wing and $90.00/$95.00 call wing
Credit: $0.78-$0.96
Max loss: $6.04
Max gain: $0.96
BE: 83.04 / 90.96
Trigger: Adjust wings if spot moves near $84 or $90; exit before expiry. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (50%).
Defined risk, theta decay from elevated near-term IV, but liquidity is lower.
Outperforms: Sells 84/77 put spread and 90/95 call spread to collect premium with max loss limited.
Underperforms: Move outside short strikes invalidates range thesis.
Long straddle pre-earnings
Buy 2026-07-17 $90.00 put + buy $90.00 call
Debit: $9.86-$12.04
Max loss: $12.04
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 77.96 / 102.04
Elevated IV and 60% beat rate offer long vol opportunity; put skew adds downside hedge.
Outperforms: Buys at-the-money straddle on Jul 16 expiry to profit from large move despite pinning risk.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Spot at $84.3, well below $90 max pain; risk of downward gamma slide if support breaks.
!Elevated put skew suggests hedging demand; bearish tail risk.
!Historical beat rate 60%: earnings uncertainty with only 5 quarters.

What to Watch

?$90 max pain level and call wall at $89-$90.
?$84.25 EM guardrail; break below could trigger further selling.
?VIX direction and implied vol changes.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.