Earnings Verdict
Earnings in ~8 days (2026-04-16 TBD) with a pronounced term-structure kink: two-day ATM IV 37.7% vs 9‑day 58.3% — creates a clear short-earnings (IV-crush) opportunity around the 4/10 expiry and a longer-dated volatility play into mid-April. Best strategy: short tight premium into the 4/10 expiration (sell straddle or short strangle near $100) sized to account for pinning and dealer gamma. Key risk: a guidance-driven gap that exceeds the 2‑day EM rails ($97.20–$101.58) and triggers dealer delta unwinds despite positive GEX.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning)
Most important: Watch the ATM IV kink (37.7% @ 4/10 vs 58.3% @ 4/17): confirms earnings timing and that short-2d premium captures most of expected IV crush.
📌Max pain 4/10 is $97.00 and 2‑day EM is $97.20–$101.58 — strong pinning pressure near $100
⚠️Front-end IV depressed (37.7%) vs 9d IV (58.3%) — shorting 4/10 captures most of the event IV but beware gap risk
💡Large net call premium at $100 (Net $8,188,288) — $100 is the focal strike for dealer hedging and client directional bets
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Gamma flip ~$73 (put OI concentration 48,184; 26.6% below spot). Below $73, dealer behavior becomes pro‑trend; currently far below spot.
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-04-16 (8 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-04-10 (2d): 7%: 7$2.19 (2.2%) [$97.20 - $101.58]
- 2026-04-17 (9d): 7%: 7$7.25 (7.3%) [$92.14 - $106.64]
IV Setup
Term structure: Sharp front-kink: 2d ATM 37.7% vs 9d ATM 58.3% (spike centered on the earnings window). IV then falls to mid/high 40s after 4/17.
Crush estimate: ~20+ vol pts from 58.3% down to ~37–45% depending on expiry; specifically selling into 4/10 captures a ~20.6 vol‑pt differential vs 4/17 ATM.
Skew: Skew is neutral-leaning put-light near spot; puts slightly cheaper in longer DTEs but short-dated put IVs are depressed relative to the 9d peak.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 75% (3/4 recent quarters beat: 2025-12-31, 2025-06-30, 2025-03-31)
Avg move vs expected: Not quantified (historical move sizes not provided), but run-rate shows more frequent small beats than large misses.
Directional bias: 75% gap-up tendency (3/4 quarters showed upside surprise)
Key Levels
1$100.00 GEX pin (+$46.4M at $100.00, +0.6% from spot)
2$101.00 GEX pin (+$16.4M at $101.00, +1.6% from spot)
3$97.00 max pain (2026-04-10) / EM low $97.20
Flow Highlights
Heavy premium at $100 strikes: Top Premium Flow shows $100.00 net Call premium $11,311,595 vs Put $3,123,306 (Net $8,188,288).
Large buyer activity into $100 calls (and elevated 4/10 call/put volumes) signals directional upside interest or dealer hedging activity concentrated at the $100 strike—this reinforces $100 as a pin magnet.
Unusual activity: 4/10 put flow concentrated at $98 (Vol 8,394 OI 3,828) and $100 put (Vol 5,173 OI 1,284).
Significant short-dated activity on both sides near spot — indicates two-way hedging and high options interest into the earnings window; increases probability of pinning inside the 2‑day EM.
Strategies
Short straddle (IV crush capture)
Sell 4/10 100.00 straddle (sell 100C + sell 100P exp 2026-04-10)
Trigger: Enter 1–2 days before 4/10 if IV remains at/near current 37.7% and bid/ask spreads stay tight.
Large GEX concentration at $100 (+$46.4M) and max pain at $97 with front-end IV depressed vs 9d means sellers can collect a disproportionate share of the short-term premium while dealer pinning pressure helps cap moves.
Outperforms: Stock finishes inside the 2‑day EM rails $97.20–$101.58 and IV collapses post-announcement.
Underperforms: Guidance or surprise causes >~$2.2 gap (beyond EM) or a driven one‑sided move that triggers dealer delta unwind despite positive GEX.
Long straddle (directional / move >EM)
Buy 4/17 100.00 straddle (buy 100C + buy 100P exp 2026-04-17)
Trigger: Enter up to 1–2 days before earnings if 4/17 IV has not repriced higher than current 58.3% or if you expect a >EM move.
9d ATM IV 58.3% is elevated and reflects event risk. Buying the 4/17 straddle is the pure bet on a post-release move that exceeds the priced-in ~7.25 USD range.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds the 9d EM (~±$7.25) or a larger guidance-driven gap occurs.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $100 and IV collapses quickly; also hurts if move is smaller than the 9d EM.
Directional call spread (bullish, defined risk)
Buy 4/17 100.00/105.00 call vertical (debit)
Trigger: Enter pre-earnings if flow continues to show concentrated call buying at $100 and you expect upside guidance or beat.
Call OI walls at $105–$125 and heavy net call premium at $100 show market interest in upside; defined-risk vertical captures upside with lower capital vs a naked call.
Outperforms: Gap up into the 104–106 area (approaching call OI wall $105–$125) and IV climb supports call value.
Underperforms: No upside surprise and IV collapses; or a modest move <$3.
Risk Assessment
!Gap risk: 2‑day EM is ±$2.19 ($97.20–$101.58) but guidance or surface-level surprises can produce moves larger than the short-dated EM, hurting short straddle/strangle sellers.
!IV crush impact: Front-kink implies large potential IV compression for trades that realize inside expected range; long volatility buyers face IV decay post-announcement.
!Liquidity: Very liquid around $100 and nearby strikes (100C Vol 36,100 / OI 16,471; OI clusters at 100/104/105), but wide flow could move mid prices during execution — use limit orders.
!Sizing: Positive GEX (+$234.2M) and pinning mean dealer hedging can mute moves near $100; still size shorts conservatively (e.g., max loss allocation smaller than directional trades).
!Counterparty/flow risk: Large net call premium at $100 ($~8.19M net) indicates dealers may already be hedged — sudden unwinding of these positions can amplify moves.
What to Watch
?ATM IV path into 4/10 (current 37.7% @ 4/10 vs 58.3% @ 4/17).
?Concentration/flow at $100 strike (GEX +$46.4M; large premium-flow and high call OI).
?Any change in max-pain trajectory (current short-term MP $97 then falling over expiries).
?Unusual OTM put flows at $98 and short-dated activity that could alter dealer hedges.