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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $87.68EOD only
Max Pain
$89.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.14
2.4% from close
Price Gap
+1.32
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
26
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.80
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 26, 2026 close
NFLX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings in ~8 days (2026-04-16 TBD) with a pronounced term-structure kink: two-day ATM IV 37.7% vs 9‑day 58.3% — creates a clear short-earnings (IV-crush) opportunity around the 4/10 expiry and a longer-dated volatility play into mid-April. Best strategy: short tight premium into the 4/10 expiration (sell straddle or short strangle near $100) sized to account for pinning and dealer gamma. Key risk: a guidance-driven gap that exceeds the 2‑day EM rails ($97.20–$101.58) and triggers dealer delta unwinds despite positive GEX.

Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning)
Most important: Watch the ATM IV kink (37.7% @ 4/10 vs 58.3% @ 4/17): confirms earnings timing and that short-2d premium captures most of expected IV crush.
📌Max pain 4/10 is $97.00 and 2‑day EM is $97.20–$101.58 — strong pinning pressure near $100
⚠️Front-end IV depressed (37.7%) vs 9d IV (58.3%) — shorting 4/10 captures most of the event IV but beware gap risk
💡Large net call premium at $100 (Net $8,188,288) — $100 is the focal strike for dealer hedging and client directional bets

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Gamma flip ~$73 (put OI concentration 48,184; 26.6% below spot). Below $73, dealer behavior becomes pro‑trend; currently far below spot.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-16 (8 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-10 (2d): 7%: 7$2.19 (2.2%) [$97.20 - $101.58]
  • 2026-04-17 (9d): 7%: 7$7.25 (7.3%) [$92.14 - $106.64]

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp front-kink: 2d ATM 37.7% vs 9d ATM 58.3% (spike centered on the earnings window). IV then falls to mid/high 40s after 4/17.

Crush estimate: ~20+ vol pts from 58.3% down to ~37–45% depending on expiry; specifically selling into 4/10 captures a ~20.6 vol‑pt differential vs 4/17 ATM.

Skew: Skew is neutral-leaning put-light near spot; puts slightly cheaper in longer DTEs but short-dated put IVs are depressed relative to the 9d peak.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 recent quarters beat: 2025-12-31, 2025-06-30, 2025-03-31)

Avg move vs expected: Not quantified (historical move sizes not provided), but run-rate shows more frequent small beats than large misses.

Directional bias: 75% gap-up tendency (3/4 quarters showed upside surprise)

Key Levels

1$100.00 GEX pin (+$46.4M at $100.00, +0.6% from spot)
2$101.00 GEX pin (+$16.4M at $101.00, +1.6% from spot)
3$97.00 max pain (2026-04-10) / EM low $97.20

Flow Highlights

Heavy premium at $100 strikes: Top Premium Flow shows $100.00 net Call premium $11,311,595 vs Put $3,123,306 (Net $8,188,288).

Large buyer activity into $100 calls (and elevated 4/10 call/put volumes) signals directional upside interest or dealer hedging activity concentrated at the $100 strike—this reinforces $100 as a pin magnet.

Unusual activity: 4/10 put flow concentrated at $98 (Vol 8,394 OI 3,828) and $100 put (Vol 5,173 OI 1,284).

Significant short-dated activity on both sides near spot — indicates two-way hedging and high options interest into the earnings window; increases probability of pinning inside the 2‑day EM.

Strategies

Short straddle (IV crush capture)
Sell 4/10 100.00 straddle (sell 100C + sell 100P exp 2026-04-10)
Credit: $2.00-$2.30
Max loss: Unlimited (large beyond credit)
Max gain: $2.30
BE: ≈ $97.70 / $102.30
Trigger: Enter 1–2 days before 4/10 if IV remains at/near current 37.7% and bid/ask spreads stay tight.
Large GEX concentration at $100 (+$46.4M) and max pain at $97 with front-end IV depressed vs 9d means sellers can collect a disproportionate share of the short-term premium while dealer pinning pressure helps cap moves.
Outperforms: Stock finishes inside the 2‑day EM rails $97.20–$101.58 and IV collapses post-announcement.
Underperforms: Guidance or surprise causes >~$2.2 gap (beyond EM) or a driven one‑sided move that triggers dealer delta unwind despite positive GEX.
Long straddle (directional / move >EM)
Buy 4/17 100.00 straddle (buy 100C + buy 100P exp 2026-04-17)
Max loss: $7.25
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: ≈ $92.75 / $107.25
Trigger: Enter up to 1–2 days before earnings if 4/17 IV has not repriced higher than current 58.3% or if you expect a >EM move.
9d ATM IV 58.3% is elevated and reflects event risk. Buying the 4/17 straddle is the pure bet on a post-release move that exceeds the priced-in ~7.25 USD range.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds the 9d EM (~±$7.25) or a larger guidance-driven gap occurs.
Underperforms: Stock pins near $100 and IV collapses quickly; also hurts if move is smaller than the 9d EM.
Directional call spread (bullish, defined risk)
Buy 4/17 100.00/105.00 call vertical (debit)
Max loss: Premium paid (~cost)
Max gain: $5.00
BE: 100.00 + cost
Trigger: Enter pre-earnings if flow continues to show concentrated call buying at $100 and you expect upside guidance or beat.
Call OI walls at $105–$125 and heavy net call premium at $100 show market interest in upside; defined-risk vertical captures upside with lower capital vs a naked call.
Outperforms: Gap up into the 104–106 area (approaching call OI wall $105–$125) and IV climb supports call value.
Underperforms: No upside surprise and IV collapses; or a modest move <$3.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 2‑day EM is ±$2.19 ($97.20–$101.58) but guidance or surface-level surprises can produce moves larger than the short-dated EM, hurting short straddle/strangle sellers.
!IV crush impact: Front-kink implies large potential IV compression for trades that realize inside expected range; long volatility buyers face IV decay post-announcement.
!Liquidity: Very liquid around $100 and nearby strikes (100C Vol 36,100 / OI 16,471; OI clusters at 100/104/105), but wide flow could move mid prices during execution — use limit orders.
!Sizing: Positive GEX (+$234.2M) and pinning mean dealer hedging can mute moves near $100; still size shorts conservatively (e.g., max loss allocation smaller than directional trades).
!Counterparty/flow risk: Large net call premium at $100 ($~8.19M net) indicates dealers may already be hedged — sudden unwinding of these positions can amplify moves.

What to Watch

?ATM IV path into 4/10 (current 37.7% @ 4/10 vs 58.3% @ 4/17).
?Concentration/flow at $100 strike (GEX +$46.4M; large premium-flow and high call OI).
?Any change in max-pain trajectory (current short-term MP $97 then falling over expiries).
?Unusual OTM put flows at $98 and short-dated activity that could alter dealer hedges.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 8, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.