Home Options NFLXReports

NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $93.24EOD only

Max Pain

$95.00

Next expiry Apr 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.82

2.0% from close

Price Gap

+1.76

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.77

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

7.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 22, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 23, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Mildly bullish-to-neutral: spot $92.40 sits below mid-price $93.80 but inside tight 2-day guardrails, implying consolidation toward the upper 2-day band (~$93.98). If $91.66 breaks, downside can accelerate toward $89.6 and then $85–88 band; upside is capped near $95 pin.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

Base conviction tempered by concentrated short-dated OI (pin) and positive dealer GEX (+) supporting mean reversion; offset by spot below mid-price and mixed flow lowering conviction.

Supports: Dealer GEX +$59.7M, concentrated put OI and max pain at $95; tight 2d guardrails $91.66/$93.98.
Conflicts: Spot trading below mid-price $93.80 and mixed flow; gamma flip far below (~$73) limits dealer panic-buy fuel if breakdown occurs.

📌Spot $92.40 — ~2.8% below $95 pin but inside 2-day upper guardrail $93.98

⚖️Dealer net GEX +$59.7M — dealers likely to buy dips, capping shallow declines

⚠️Gamma flip ~$73 is ~21% below spot — large breach would be required to flip dealer gamma

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV normal vs VIX ~19; no event-driven IV spike.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning regime: concentrated short-dated OI at $95 provides localized gamma support; global gamma flip ~ $73 far below spot.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed premium flow—some buying but not sustained directional flow.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $92.40 below mid-price $93.80 (~1.5%); pin at $95 (~2.8% above spot) exerts upward pinning pressure while downside remains if 2d guardrail fails.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Short-dated OI clusters and near expiries drive pinning and short-term price dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$91.66$93.98

Spot $92.40 inside 2d guardrails $91.66/$93.98 — expect chop toward upper band

Next 1 week

$89.60$96.04

Broader channel $89.6 support / $96 resistance; watch for pin hold at $95

Next 2 weeks

$88.46$97.18

Break below $89.6 opens $85–88 structural support band

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $95 (2026-04-24); $95 (2026-05-01); $95 (2026-05-08)

EM guardrails: 2d $91.66/$93.98; 1w $89.60/$96.04

Support: $88.46 · $85.00

Resistance: $95.00 · $97.18 · $100.00

Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,182 (21.4% below spot)

Structural: Spot $92.40; mid-price $93.80; key pin/resistance $95; 2d guardrails $91.66/$93.98; 1w bounds ~$89.60/$96.04; structural supports $88.46 and $85; gamma flip ~$73 (~21% below spot).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+59.7M

DEX: +133.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$73 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,182 (21.4% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer GEX +$59.7M, DEX +133.5M shares; NTM gamma flip ~ $73 (~21% below spot) with puts concentrated ~21% below spot — dealers biased to buy dips, limiting shallow drawdowns unless breach is large.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV roughly in line with VIX (~19); options not excessively rich so directional protection is affordable but not cheap.

Term structure: Near-term term-structure relatively flat with OI kinks at $95 in short-dated expiries; no steep front-month spikes.

Skew: Put OI skew concentrated below spot (~21% down). Opportunity: sell premium against the $95 pin or buy protection below $89 as cheap tail insurance.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium ~-7.175M (net sold); flow skewed toward calls by volume (P/C vol 0.77) while OI also skewed to calls (P/C OI 0.77).

Directional prints: 129.7 put 105 ITM 2026-04-24 — Large near‑term buying or roll: vol 3,927 vs OI 755 (V/OI 5.2); reads as aggressive put buys or dealer hedging short stock. 31.7 put 82 OTM 2026-06-18 — Very large longer‑dated flow: vol 11,234 vs OI 3,134; likely directional put accumulation or large portfolio hedge. 36.6 call 90 ITM 2026-05-01 — Heavy short‑dated call flow: vol 3,753 vs OI 589 (V/OI 6.4); suggests call buys or short covering into expiry.

Unusual: 30.8 call 91 ITM 2026-05-01 — Very high V/OI 16.5: likely sweep of OTM calls or aggressive directional buyers. 145.1 put 109 ITM 2026-04-24 — Expiring puts with extreme IV (145%); likely liquidation or urgent hedging into expiry. 125.3 put 103 ITM 2026-04-24 — High volume into near expiry (V/OI ~2.8) reinforcing short‑dated downside positioning.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break of 2-day support $91.66 accelerating move to $89.6–85 band

!Unscheduled company-specific news spiking IV and negating pin

!Broader market selloff (SPY/QQQ) reducing dealer liquidity and widening spreads

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-17 $80.00/$65.00 put wing and $110.00/$120.00 call wing Why now: Market mildly bullish-neutral; sell wings beyond expected $85–95 trading band to collect premium while capping tails through earnings	Break below short put strike (~85) into long-put protection (83) or upside breakout past short call wing (100) Liquidity constraints: long_put: Wide spread (108%).
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$75.00 put spread Why now: Mildly bullish-neutral spot; sell downside premium with defined protection to profit if consolidation holds above $89–91	Break below 89–91 causing acceleration and large put pain
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $100.00/$105.00 call spread Why now: If consolidation resolves up toward $95, buy upside call spread to participate with limited debit	IV increase or gap down that inflates long call cost
Call diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-15 $96.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $100.00 call Why now: Near-term vols cheap relative to back month; collect premium while keeping long convexity after earnings	Near-term IV spike or assignment if strong upside pre-earnings

Top Plays

Short put spread (85/75)

Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$75.00 put spread

Sell 7/17 85/75 put spread to collect premium while limiting tail risk if consolidation holds above $89–91.

Why this play: Best risk-defined income with liquidity and alignment to mildly bullish-neutral thesis; invalidation near $88.46 protects downside.

Credit: $1.53-$1.88

Max loss: $8.12

BE: $83.12

Mgmt: Close or roll if price trades ≤$89 or IV spikes; tighten or unwind into earnings run-up.

Traders wanting income with defined risk and active management.

Call diagonal (sell May96 / buy Jul100)

Sell 2026-05-15 $96.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $100.00 call

Short front call vs long back call to monetize cheap near vols and keep upside exposure past earnings.

Why this play: Collect near-term premium while retaining back-month upside convexity; helps against post-earnings volatility skew.

Debit: $1.80-$2.21

Max loss: $2.21

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Manage front-month leg into expiry or on >$95 pin; hedge or roll long leg if IV collapses or price gaps up.

Traders who want income plus asymmetric upside after event.

Bull call spread (100/105)

Buy 2026-07-17 $100.00/$105.00 call spread

Buy 7/17 100/105 call spread to participate in a modest rally with capped loss.

Why this play: Direct limited-cost upside if consolidation resolves higher toward $95+.

Debit: $1.16-$1.41

Max loss: $1.41

BE: $101.41

Mgmt: Take profits or roll down if stock moves toward $100; cut if breaks $88.46.

Directional bulls seeking capped debit exposure.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot > $91.66 and trades toward $93.98 before May expiry → THEN enter s2: sell 7/17 85/75 put spread at mid/offer within entry range [1.53-1.88]

IFIF spot approaches $95 without breaking $97.18 AND front 30d ATM IV < 22% → THEN enter s4: sell 5/15 96 call, buy 7/17 100 call (ratio/vertical as stated) within entry range [1.80-2.21]

IFIF spot rallies above $96 AND 14d RSI > 60 → THEN enter s3: buy 7/17 100/105 bull call spread within entry [1.16-1.41]

IFIF market remains neutral (30d IV 18–24% and implied vol skew stable) AND you want two‑sided income → THEN enter s1: iron condor 7/17; put wing 80/65 and call wing 110/120 inside entry [1.81-2.21]

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF spot ≤ $89 OR price ≤ invalidation $88.46 OR position loss ≥ 25% of notional → THEN s2/s4: roll short strikes 2.5–5 pts wider and collect ≤ 0.30 credit or close to cut loss; s3: roll down 2.5 pts or close if unrealized loss >25%; s1: remove short side(s) if single‑wing loss >20% and redeploy remaining wing

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot ≥ $95 OR 30d IV rises ≥ +5 vol points OR material company news → THEN target: take 50–80% profits on short front legs (close when P/L 50–80%), unwind longs (s3) if <20% time value remains, and do not re‑enter within 48h

Tactical Summary

Mildly bullish‑neutral: primary income via s2 and s4 while s3 offers defined upside; s1 provides two‑sided income when vols 18–24%. Use numeric rules: cut/roll at ≤$89/ $88.46 or 25% loss; exit on spot ≥$95 or IV +5 vols/news.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 23, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.