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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $86.02EOD only

Max Pain

$87.00

Next expiry Jun 5, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.79

3.2% from close

Price Gap

+0.98

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.78

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 14, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a short-term pin above max-pain band and upside magnet toward the upper expected-move; Confidence: 7.5/10. Primary supports: large positive GEX $+255.8M concentrated at $100/$105/$110, heavy bullish net premium $406.1M and P/C vol 0.21; conflicts: spot 13.1% above nearest MP and near-term earnings 2026-04-16 creating elevated 3d IV (82%).

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 7.5 driven by large positive GEX and bullish net premium; I do not override despite earnings-driven IV because positive GEX pinning dominates near-term dealer hedging behavior.

Supports: GEX +$255.8M concentrated at $100/$105/$110; Net premium +$406.1M; Top premium flow clustered at $105/$100/$120 calls
Conflicts: Spot $106.28 is 13.1% above very near-term MP ($94 on 4/17) and tomorrow's earnings (2026-04-16) inflate 3d IV to 82%

📌**Pinning**: GEX magnets at $100, $105 and $110 likely create short-term mean reversion and dealer delta buys near those strikes.

⚠️**Event risk**: 3d ATM IV 82.0% (4/17) — sell premium with strict event management or favor calendars to capture vol roll-down.

📈**Flow**: Net premium +$406.1M concentrated in calls ($105/$100/$120) — institutional skew toward upside exposure.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High — Avg IV 52.1% with extreme front-week ATM IV 82.0% (4/17) indicating event-priced short-dated options.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning — GEX +$255.8M concentrated at $100/$105/$110 produces strong dealer hedging that favors mean-reversion toward those strikes.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow — Net premium +$406.1M, P/C vol 0.21, top premium flow dominated by calls at $105/$100/$120.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $106.28 sits above nearest MP $94 (4/17) and intermediate MPs $97/$98 — creates upward pressure but also a structural drag toward the MP ladder over expirations.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Elevated front-week IV (82%) and imminent earnings 2026-04-16 create a concentrated event effect; GEX pinning dominates the next several days but reverts after the short-week expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$99.00$113.55

Dealer pinning at $105/$110 and bullish flow pushes edge to upper 2d bound; break < $99 removes short-term support.

Next 1 week

$98.23$114.33

Weekly expiry and post-earnings IV collapse likely widen realized range; sustained move above $115 would require breaking the $115-$125 call OI wall.

Next 2 weeks

$97.58$114.98

GEX remains positive and MP trend is slowly rising; breakout above $115 confirmed by sustained print > $116 (structural call-wall).

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $94 (2026-04-17); $97 (2026-04-24); $98 (2026-05-01)

EM guardrails: 2d $99.00/$113.55; 1w $98.23/$114.33

Support: $105.00 · $100.00 · $99.00

Resistance: $110.00 · $115.00 · $120.00

Structural: Structural call OI wall at $115–$125 caps large rallies; put floor concentrated at $73 provides deep downside support only for multi-week catastrophes.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+255.8M

DEX: +156.7M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Near-the-money positive gamma concentrated at $100 (+$15.9M), $105 (+$13.7M) and $110 (+$12.4M) — dealers buy deltas on dips into those strikes; if spot falls ~2% to ~$104 the dealer hedge flow will be strong buy-delta; a +2% move to ~$108 reduces hedges and may mute pinning as call gamma becomes less concentrated.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: ATM IV neighborhood: 3d 82.0% vs VIX 18.36 — extreme event premium short-term; longer-dated ATM IVs (30–90d) 39–42% are rich vs index but reasonable for name-specific event risk.

Term structure: Steep front-week IV (82%) collapsing to 54.8% at 10d and ~39–42% in 24–45d — ideal for selling short-dated vol or selling near-term and buying longer-term calendar leg (sell high IV, buy lower IV).

Skew: Significant front-week vs 45d vol differential (~82% vs 39% = ~43 vol-pt); calendar/diagonal sells near-term leg (4/17) and buys 5/29 or 5/29/6/18 leg captures roll-down.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $406.1M bullish; P/C vol 0.21, P/C OI 0.92

Directional prints: 81 call 112 OTM 4/17 — Large unusual 4/17 112C print (Vol 60,179 vs OI 3,983; 15.1x) — could be buy-to-open or establishment of long call exposure into earnings; in context of heavy call flow, interpretable as bullish new risk-seeking (buy call) which aligns with overall flow. 36.8 call 120 OTM 7/17 — 7/17 120C large flow (Vol 162,597 OI 5,466; 29.8x) — longer-dated call accumulation consistent with directional bulls or covered-call overlay; more consistent with buy calls given large vol vs OI.

Unusual: 36.6 call 140 OTM 7/17 — 7/17 140C outsized vol (160,811 vs OI 356; 451x) — single-ticket structured or tail long-call; directional interpretation ambiguous but flags institutional directional bullish exposure.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings 2026-04-16 can gap and cause IV to collapse (3d IV 82.0%) — large gamma moves intra-session.

!Gamma flip if spot falls below $99 removes dealer buy-delta support and accelerates downside.

!Heavy call OI wall at $115–$125 increases resistance and could lead to pin above $110 if breached.

!Market risk: QQQ/XLK strength supports upside but any broad weakness removes buyers and amplifies realized vol.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	Buy NFLX stock at $106.28	Earnings gap and high IV make outright long less attractive vs defined-risk alternatives.
Short stock	Weak	Short NFLX stock at market	Dealer buy-delta near GEX magnets and strong bullish flow increase reversion risk.
Covered call	Moderate-Weak	Buy stock + sell 4/24 115C (collect call premium vs $115 call OI wall)	Capped upside by strong call OI at $115–$125; earnings gap risk on the stock leg.
Cash-secured put (CSP)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/24 $100 put cash-secured	Gamma pinning is supportive but immediate post-earnings move could gap under $99 breaking support.
Short-dated put spread	Strong	Sell 4/17 $105/$100 put spread	Event risk — implied move may exceed collected credit; close on IV crush or if spot < $100.
Iron condor (weekly)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/24 put 100/95 and call 112/116 iron condor (defined wings)	IV crush helps premium decay but earnings-week skew and tail risk can blow wings; monitor VIX and post-earnings flow.
Calendar / diagonal (vol sell)	Strong	Sell 4/17 106C, buy 5/29 106C (sell high-IV near-term, buy low-IV longer-term) — front-week IV 82% vs 45d ~39% (~43 vol-pt edge)	Calendar benefits from post-earnings IV collapse; direction bias if spot moves strongly away from 106 requires adjustments.
Long calls (directional)	Moderate-Weak	Buy 4/24 115C or 5/29 115C for directional upside	Premium expensive near-term; better to buy longer-dated if bullish to reduce vega burn.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 4/24 100/95 bear put spread	Expensive front-week IV and strong GEX cushion make downside less likely without market shock.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 5/29 106C, sell 4/17 106C (covered-call-like diagonal)	Requires owning or synthetic long; benefits from heavy front-week IV sold and term structure.

Top Plays

Short-dated Put Spread (defined risk)

Sell 4/17 $105/$100 put spread

Sells front-week elevated IV (82%) into positive GEX pinning at $100–$105; high theta and dealer buy-delta support limit downside toward $100.

Credit: $0.85-$1.25

Max loss: $4.15

BE: $104.15

Mgmt: Take profits at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot < $100 or post-earnings gap exceeds spread width.

Traders seeking event-week premium with defined risk

Calendar / Diagonal Vol Sell (30+ DTE)

Sell 4/17 106C, buy 5/29 106C (sell IV 82% vs buy 39% ≈ +43 vol-pt)

Captures extreme front-week IV vs much lower 45d IV; benefits if post-earnings IV collapses and spot stays near 106; positive GEX reduces gamma bleed on the short leg.

Credit: $1.75-$2.50

Max loss: N/A

BE: Dependent on calendar mark-to-market; risk primarily short-leg assignment or directional gap

Mgmt: Close short leg after IV collapse (target 60–80% premium decay) or roll short leg if spot moves >$3 from 106.

Vol sellers preferring time premium capture with limited directional exposure; requires margin for two legs

1-week Iron Condor (income, defined risk)

Sell 4/24 put 100/95 and call 112/116 iron condor

Uses 1w EM guardrails ($98.23–$114.33) to set wings; positive GEX supports mean reversion toward center and gives R:R for premium sellers.

Credit: $1.10-$1.80

Max loss: $3.90

BE: Lower: 100 - credit ; Upper: 112 + credit

Mgmt: Take profits at 50–70% collected; widen or hedge if spot prints outside $99–$114 band.

Defined-risk income traders comfortable managing post-earnings adjustments

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $105 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 4/17 $105/$100 put spread

IFIf spot remains between $103–$109 after earnings and IV on 4/17 drops >30 vol-pts (to <55%) → Establish sell 4/24 iron condor: sell 100/95 put and 112/116 call

IFIf front-week IV remains >75% pre-open 4/17 → Sell 4/17 106C and buy 5/29 106C (calendar) to capture vol roll-down

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot moves >$3 below $100 pre-expiry (spot <$97) → Buy back short put leg of 4/17 $105/$100 spread and consider buying 95 put for protection

ADJIf spot rallies >$4 above $112 post-earnings → Hedge iron condor by buying 116/120 call fly or rolling short 112C to 116C on 4/24 expiry

Exit Triggers

EXITIf trade reaches 60% of max profit before expiry → Take profit and reduce position size

EXITIf VIX >30 and spot <$99 → Exit all short-premium positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: sell short-dated vol around dealer pin ($100–$110) into elevated 3d IV with calendars/defined put spreads preferred; invalidation: sustained close < $99 removes dealer support and favors directional put buys; top plays: 4/17 $105/$100 put spread (short-term defined-risk), 4/17/5/29 106C calendar (30+ DTE vol sell), 4/24 100/95+112/116 iron condor (defined-income).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.