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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $89.33EOD only

Max Pain

$89.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.44

2.7% from close

Price Gap

-0.33

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.78

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

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You are viewing an older report from May 15, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 19, 2026.

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Outlook

Bullish bias with strong dealer support and pinning at $88. High vol and bullish flow reinforce upside, but spot below MP suggests initial weakness. Expected to grind toward $88-$90 in 1-2 weeks.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5 +2 GEX/flow aligned +1 GEX positive +0.5 spot near MP +0.5 VIX = 9.0. No override needed.

Supports: Bullish flow, +GEX, near MP, resistance at $88-$90, strong dealer long gamma.
Conflicts: High vol, spot below MP initially, gamma flip risk at $73.

🟢Bullish flow and strong GEX ($+11.4M) align for upside tilt.

📌Max pain pin at $88 for May15 expiry; nearby for May22/29 at $90.

⚠️Gamma flip ~$73 is 16% below; sharp sell-off could accelerate.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV elevated per high-vol classification; VIX 18.4 supports elevated vol environment.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning regime with $11.4M positive GEX; flip risk at ~$73 based on put OI.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net premium flow positive for sentiment.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot slightly below MP ($88) by 1.1%; mean-reversion bias upward.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Price ranges extend to 2 weeks with structural dealer positioning and no imminent event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$84.10$89.93

84.1-89.93; pinning at $88, upside to $90.

Next 2 weeks

$83.03$91.00

83.03-91; extend upside toward $90-91 resistance.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $88 (2026-05-15); $90 (2026-05-22); $90 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 1w $84.10/$89.93

Support: $83.03

Resistance: $88.00 · $90.00 · $91.00

Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,301 (16.1% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $88 (May15), $90 (May22/29); EM guard 84.1/89.93; support 83.03; resistance 88,90,91; gamma flip ~$73.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+11.4M

DEX: +133.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$73 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,301 (16.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$11.4M long gamma; DEX +133.2M shares; gamma flip ~$73 (put OI concentration).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV likely rich vs VIX given high vol regime; warrants caution for long vol positions.

Term structure: Term structure not available from provided data; no event kinks observed. Expect contango or flat shape.

Skew: Skew data not available; potential call skew from bullish flow but cannot confirm. No actionable opportunity identified.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $18.9M positive with P/C vol ratio 0.46 and OI ratio 0.73, indicating strong call bias.

Directional prints: 32.1 call 92 OTM 2026-06-18 — Vol/OI 4.7x; aggressive call buying interpreted as bullish bet; preferred buy-side. 6.1 call 87 ITM 2026-05-15 — Expiry day vol surge; likely closing or rolling; bullish bias if new; preferred neutral. 35.6 call 87 ITM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 3.9x; call accumulation suggests bullish outlook; preferred buy.

Unusual: 74.1 put 20 OTM 2027-03-19 — Deep OTM put vol/OI 4.2x; could be hedge or bearish speculation; preferred hedge given regime. 149.2 call 135 OTM 2026-05-22 — High IV lottery call vol/OI 4.3x; likely bought as speculation; preferred sell-side due to high premium. 84.4 put 114 ITM 2026-06-18 — ITM put vol/OI 3.1x; profit-taking or bearish hedge; preferred neutral.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip near $73 could accelerate a sell-off.

!High vol regime may elevate downside tail risk.

!Spot below MP initially may delay bullish resolution.

!Resistance at $88-$90 may cap upside without catalyst.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-29 $84.00/$81.00 put spread Why now: Put credit spread fits bullish bias with defined risk; near-term expiration aligns with thesis timing.	If NFLX drops sharply below short strike, max loss is spread width.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-05 $89.00/$93.00 call spread Why now: Bull call spread benefits from upward grind; debit paid limits capital at risk.	Max loss is premium paid; upside capped at short strike.
Bullish risk reversal	Conditional	Buy 2026-07-17 $95.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $80.00 put Why now: Risk reversal captures upside potential beyond near-term; put sale lowers cost.	Unlimited upside if sold put moves against; hedge tail risk.

Top Plays

Bull Call Spread

Buy 2026-06-05 $89.00/$93.00 call spread

Buy $89/$93 call spread for June 5; benefits from upward move with limited capital.

Why this play: Best alignment with moderate upside grind to $88-$90; defined risk and cost-effective.

Debit: $0.93-$1.14

Max loss: $1.14

BE: $90.14

Mgmt: Exit if stock drops below $83; take profit near $92.

Traders expecting steady rise without huge volatility.

Put Credit Spread

Sell 2026-05-29 $84.00/$81.00 put spread

Sell $84/$81 put spread for May 29; profits from stock staying above $84.

Why this play: Captures bullish bias with defined risk; near-term expiration matches immediate thesis.

Credit: $0.46-$0.56

Max loss: $2.44

BE: $83.44

Mgmt: Roll if stock approaches $83; close early for 50% of max gain.

Conservative traders seeking income with clear invalidation.

Bullish Risk Reversal

Buy 2026-07-17 $95.00 call / sell 2026-07-17 $80.00 put

Buy $95 call, sell $80 put for July 17; unlimited upside if stock rallies.

Why this play: Higher upside potential but longer timeframe and greater downside risk.

Debit: $0.37-$0.45

Max loss: $80.00

BE: $80.00

Mgmt: Add protection if stock falls below $80; take profit on call at $100.

Aggressive traders with strong bullish conviction and long horizon.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF NFLX holds above 83.03 and shows strength, targeting 88-90 → THEN buy 2026-06-05 $89/$93 bull call spread for debit 0.93-1.14 (nflx_bcs_1)

IFIF NFLX stays above 84.00 with no breakdown below 83.03 → THEN sell 2026-05-29 $84/$81 put spread for credit 0.46-0.56 (nflx_pcs_1)

IFIF NFLX holds above 83.03 with strong bullish momentum for longer hold → THEN buy 2026-07-17 $95 call / sell $80 put risk reversal for net credit 0.37-0.45 (nflx_rr_1)

Exit Triggers

EXITIF NFLX breaks and closes below 83.03 (invalidation) → THEN close all bullish positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias, strong dealer support, pinning ~$88. Expect grind to $88-90 in 1-2 weeks. Key support 83.03, resistance 88/90/91. Gamma flip $73. Top play: Bull Call Spread. Invalidation below 83.03.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.