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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $97.31EOD only

Max Pain

$100.00

Next expiry Apr 24, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.33

3.4% from close

Price Gap

+2.69

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

0.88

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 17, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Mildly bullish, pin-to-$98–$100 thesis with explicit near-term gamma decay: dealer long-gamma and concentrated puts favor pinning into expiries 04/24, 05/01, 05/08; expect intraday hedge flows to amplify moves in the 48–72h leading into each expiry then decay quickly after settlement.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 expiry-convexity; -0.5 spot distance

Supports: Dealer long-gamma, concentrated short-dated puts at $98–$99, steady net bullish premium flow
Conflicts: Spot ~3.2% below MP, VIX ~19 elevates premia and gap risk

📌Gamma convexity: sharp GEX increase 48–72h pre-expiry (04/24,05/01,05/08) amplifies intraday moves

🟢Dealer long-gamma and put cluster at $98–$99 provide absorbent supply into expiries

⚠️Post-expiry gamma decay can leave spot vulnerable to gap-down deleveraging toward ~$73 flip if breached

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV ~in line with VIX (~19); near-dated IV slightly elevated into listed expiries.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Expiry-driven pinning with pronounced convexity: dealer long-gamma increases markedly 48–72h pre-expiry then drops post-settlement; gamma flip ~73 far below spot.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish net premium flow into short-dated puts/call skew; dealers buy GEX hedges into expiries then unwind after expiry, creating front-loaded supportive hedging.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot ~3.2% below $98–$100 MP cluster; repeated expiries create recurring upward hedging pressure then punctuated decay after each roll.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Sustained put concentration across consecutive expiries and predictable pre-expiry gamma convexity create multi-week pinning with periodic hedge-flow spikes.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$89.64$100.02

Longer horizon limited by distant gamma flip ~$73 if structural break occurs.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $98 (2026-04-24); $99 (2026-05-01); $98 (2026-05-08)

EM guardrails:

Support: $89.64

Resistance: $98.00 · $100.00 · $100.02

Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,171 (23.0% below spot)

Structural: Resistance/pin cluster $98–$100; near support ~$89.6; gamma flip ~73 (material downside if broken)

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+98.6M

DEX: +126.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$73 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,171 (23.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer GEX net +$98.6M with DEX +126.4M shares; expect GEX to rise materially 48–72h pre-expiry (quantified uplift ~20–40% short-term) then collapse post-expiry, driving hedging inflows then rapid unwind.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV tracks VIX (~19); near-dated IV richens into expiries — reduces edge for naked short vol but supports skew plays.

Term structure: Flat-to-steep near-dated term structure with kinks at expiries (IV steps higher into 04/24, 05/01, 05/08), signaling event-related demand and convexity.

Skew: Local put skew steep at $98–$99; actionable: harvest front-loaded hedge flow (sell short-dated skew or structure directional buys with distal put protection).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Large net positive premium (~$17.4M) with put/call vol 0.69 and OI 0.81 — skewed toward calls, bullish tilt.

Directional prints: 31.4 call 95 OTM 2026-04-24 — Massive same-day buys (19.2k vol, 2.4k OI) — likely directional call buying pushing near-term upside exposure. 32.1 call 96 OTM 2026-04-24 — Large volume (16.2k) concentrated at 96 — reinforces short-term upside pinning/hedge demand. 30.5 put 94 OTM 2026-04-24 — Heavy put flow (19.0k vol) — could be protective buys or sell-to-open hedges; context favors buys given net premium.

Unusual: 71.1 call 113 OTM 2026-04-24 — Extreme vol/oi (10x) tiny price — likely sweep/speculative directional bet or errant prints. 31.3 put 92 OTM 2026-04-24 — Large vol (13.1k) with high OI — sizable downside interest same day; watch pin risk.

Risks & Catalysts

!Large gap down through $89.6 support causing rapid deleveraging to gamma flip ~$73 due to post-expiry gamma decay

!Near-expiry gamma spikes (48–72h) can amplify intraday moves and produce short-term illiquidity

!VIX jump or exogenous catalyst shifting flow away from dealer hedging and invalidating pin thesis

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-06-18 $91.00/$82.00 put spread Why now: Bullish-neutral bias, heavy call buying and concentrated near-term puts; collect premium while limiting tail risk into sequential expiries and earnings.	Gamma spikes near near-term expiries and large gap down can hurt short puts.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-06-18 $101.00/$107.00 call spread Why now: Directional call demand and skewed flows favor upside; buy nearer-month call and sell higher strike in same duration to reduce cost.	IV move or post-expiry gamma decay may widen spread P/L dynamics.
Cash-secured put	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-06-18 $90.00 cash-secured put Why now: Collect premium given bullish tilt and call skew; suitable for multi-week exposure with capital reserve.	Large gap down through $89.6 support causes rapid deleveraging and assignment at worse prices.
Bullish risk reversal	Conditional	Buy 2026-06-18 $103.00 call / sell 2026-06-18 $93.00 put Why now: Leverages observed directional call prints; structured to retain upside into multi-week/earnings window while taking defined short-put exposure.	Short put tail risk if gap down or vol spike; requires monitoring of IV and hedging.

Top Plays

Lean-up bull-call spread

Buy 2026-06-18 $101.00/$107.00 call spread

Buy 6/18 101/107 call spread to express modest upside toward $98–100 with limited debit and defined max loss.

Why this play: Low-cost directional play captures near-term call demand while capping risk.

Debit: $1.15-$1.40

Max loss: $1.40

BE: $102.40

Mgmt: Trim into sequential expiry gamma windows; close or roll before 48–72h spikes into near-dated expiries.

Traders wanting bullish exposure with capped risk and limited capital.

Put-credit income spread

Sell 2026-06-18 $91.00/$82.00 put spread

Sell 6/18 91/82 put spread to monetize bullish-neutral bias and dealer long-gamma pin risk, with defined max loss.

Why this play: Collects premium amid call-skewed flow while limiting downside vs naked puts.

Credit: $1.74-$2.12

Max loss: $6.88

BE: $88.88

Mgmt: Take profits into post-expiry gamma decay; cut if price breaches invalidation ~89.64 or volatility jumps.

Income-oriented traders comfortable with limited downside exposure.

Directional risk reversal

Buy 2026-06-18 $103.00 call / sell 2026-06-18 $93.00 put

Buy 6/18 103 call / sell 6/18 93 put to retain upside into multi-week window while assuming concentrated put exposure.

Why this play: Amplifies call-driven upside while financing upside with short put—higher carry but material short-side risk.

Credit: $1.41-$1.72

Max loss: $91.28

BE: $91.28

Mgmt: Monitor put-side stress and overall flow; hedge or unwind if gamma flip risk or a gap below support appears.

Aggressive bulls who can absorb assignment or large downside moves.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF NFLX trades >=98.00 and <=100.00 and position size <=2% portfolio value → THEN buy s2: 2026-06-18 101/107 call spread within entry price 1.15–1.40

IFIF NFLX >89.64 AND 30‑day IV percentile >=50 AND max allocation 4% portfolio value → THEN sell s1: 2026-06-18 91/82 put-credit spread within entry price 1.74–2.12

IFIF NFLX >89.64 AND cash reserved >= strike*100 per contract AND max allocation 3% portfolio value → THEN sell s3: 2026-06-18 90 cash‑secured put within entry price 2.23–2.72

IFIF aggressive bullish AND 30‑day IV <=35 (IV percentile <=30) AND max allocation 6% portfolio value → THEN enter s4: 2026-06-18 buy 103 call / sell 93 put (synthetic) within entry price 1.41–1.72

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIF entering 48–72h before any near‑dated expiry (04/24,05/01,05/08) OR 30‑day IV rises >20 pts from entry → THEN trim delta, take profits on defined‑risk spreads (s2) and reduce short put size (s1/s3/s4); preserve cash buffer

Exit Triggers

EXITIF NFLX closes below 89.64 (primary stop) OR gap opens below 89.64 on material IV spike → THEN close short puts (s1/s3/s4) and unwind bullish spreads (s2/s4) to limit downside; IF NFLX closes below 73 (secondary severe break) THEN liquidate remaining directional positions due to gamma‑flip risk

Tactical Summary

Mildly bullish to 98–100. Prefer defined‑risk call spread (s2) or put‑credit (s1) sized to portfolio caps. Use measurable IV/ cash rules for premium sales, trim into 48–72h expiry or big IV moves, stop at 89.64; full liquidation if price breaches 73.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.