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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $87.56EOD only

Max Pain

$90.00

Next expiry May 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.92

2.2% from close

Price Gap

+2.44

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.74

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.5/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 13, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias with pinning to $90; supported by dealer gamma and low VIX, but spot below max pain limits upside.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

Base 5.5; GEX positive (+1), VIX low (+1), spot below MP (-0.5), mixed flow (-1).

Supports: Gamma pinning, low VIX, positive GEX.
Conflicts: Spot below max pain, mixed flow.

🔮Strong gamma at $90 acts as magnet.

⚠️Spot 3.4% below MP; risk of pullback to gamma flip ~$73.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Vol classified High; VIX at 17.26.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma pinning; GEX +226K; strong call walls near $90.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow; net premium context unclear.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot ~3.4% below max pain $90 ($86.82 implied).

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term weekly options expirations (May 15,22,29) drive pinning dynamics.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$85.77$88.12

Pinning to $90; range 85.77-88.12.

Next 1 week

$83.84$90.05

Supported by gamma; range 83.84-90.05.

Next 2 weeks

$82.90$90.98

Resistance at $90; range 82.9-90.98.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $90 (2026-05-15); $90 (2026-05-22); $90 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $85.77/$88.12; 1w $83.84/$90.05

Support: $82.90

Resistance: $90.00 · $90.98

Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,292 (16.0% below spot)

Structural: Max pain $90 (all exp); support $82.9; resistance $90, $90.98; gamma flip ~$73.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+226K

DEX: +135.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$73 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,292 (16.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$226K, DEX +135.7M shares; gamma flip ~$73 (put heavy).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV elevated relative to VIX (17.26); individual stock vol rich.

Term structure: Contango with kinks at weekly expirations.

Skew: Steep put skew; possible put spread.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net -$11.6M, puts dominate; vol ratio 0.60, OI 0.74, bearish.

Directional prints: 123.4 put 102 ITM 2026-05-15 — Large put buying with extreme IV 123% suggests bearish hedge, vol/OI 5.1 new bearish positions. 73.3 put 114 ITM 2026-06-18 — ITM put buying with high IV 73%, vol/OI 3.1 indicates downside protection. 29.7 call 89 OTM 2026-05-22 — Large OTM call vol 8k, vol/OI 3.9; likely bought for bullish speculation, moderate IV.

Unusual: 123.4 put 102 ITM 2026-05-15 — IV 123% extremely high, puts in high demand, unusual spike. 70.3 call 116 OTM 2026-05-22 — Far OTM call with IV 70% and high vol/OI 3.2, unusually high implied vol. 26.7 call 89 OTM 2026-05-15 — Massive volume 55k vs OI 16k, vol/OI 3.3, extremely unusual size for OTM call.

Risks & Catalysts

!Unexpected earnings/event news.

!Break of gamma flip at ~$73.

!Unravelling of pinning effect.

!Macro shift increasing VIX.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Call diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-06-26 $96.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $90.00 call Why now: Sell high IV near-term call to capture vol crush; buy back-month call for directional move.	Unexpected earnings miss could cause sharp decline.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-17 $90.00/$95.00 call spread Why now: Dealer gamma supports $90; low VIX favors debit spreads; earnings catalyst on 2026-07-16.	Upside capped at $95; break below $90 leads to loss.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$80.00 put spread Why now: High put IV near earnings; sell put spread below support at $85.	If spot drops below $80, max loss is $5.00.
Call calendar	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-17 $95.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $95.00 call Why now: Near-term IV ~31% vs back-month 38%; sell front call, buy back call to benefit from term structure; after-earnings expirations reduce event risk.	If spot rallies sharply, front call may cap gains; max loss if spot drops.
Long call	Conditional	Buy 2026-07-17 $90.00 call Why now: Bullish bias ahead of earnings; VIX low but can expand; long call benefits from vol pop.	If spot stays below $90, premium decays; max loss is full premium.

Top Plays

Call diagonal for vol crush

Sell 2026-06-26 $96.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $90.00 call

Short front-month call, long back-month call to capture volatility decay while maintaining upside.

Why this play: Sells high IV near-term call, buys back-month for directional; exploits vol term structure and pinning to $90.

Debit: $2.97-$3.64

Max loss: $3.64

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Close if stock breaches $82.9 invalidation; take profit on vol crush.

Traders expecting pinning to $90 and vol decline post-earnings.

Bull call spread at $90/$95

Buy 2026-07-17 $90.00/$95.00 call spread

Buys $90 call, sells $95 call to limit cost and risk; profits from move to $95.

Why this play: Debit spread aligns with dealer gamma support at $90; low VIX favors defined-risk bullish play before earnings.

Debit: $1.53-$1.87

Max loss: $1.87

BE: $91.87

Mgmt: Exit if stock drops below $82.9 or near expiration if not profitable.

Traders seeking defined-risk bullish exposure with earnings catalyst.

Put credit spread below $85

Sell 2026-07-17 $85.00/$80.00 put spread

Sells $85 put, buys $80 put to collect credit; bullish on stock not falling below $85.

Why this play: Sells put spread well below support; high put IV offers premium with low probability of being tested.

Credit: $1.65-$2.02

Max loss: $2.98

BE: $82.98

Mgmt: Close if stock approaches $85 or invalidation level; take profit at 50% max gain.

Traders with neutral-to-bullish outlook who want to sell volatility.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf NFLX tests $82.9 support and holds → Buy call diagonal (call_diag_90_96) to capture vol crush and directional upside

Adjustment Triggers

ADJWhen NFLX reaches $90.0 resistance → Take profit on short leg of call diagonal and roll up to manage upside risk

Exit Triggers

EXITIf NFLX closes below $82.9 invalidation level → Close all bullish positions: call diagonal, bull call spread, put credit spread

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias with pinning to $90. Use support $82.9 for entries, resistance $90.0 for profit-taking. Invalidation below $82.9. Preferred strategies: call diagonal (rank 1) and bull call spread (rank 2).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 14, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.