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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $103.16EOD only

Max Pain

$93.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.75

6.5% from close

Price Gap

-10.16

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.92

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 13, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with a pinning magnet between $100–$110; dealers long gamma (GEX +$234.2M) bias toward mean-reversion and pinning to near-term OI at $100/$105; Confidence: 7.5/10.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.9% above MP; +0.5 VIX 19.12.

Supports: Heavy GEX at $100 ($+21.4M) and $104 ($+7.7M) plus put floor cluster at $73; near-term EM lower bound $94.79.
Conflicts: Max pain series lower ($93→$98) and spot 10.9% above MP pulls downside; earnings 2026-04-16 (T+3) can upset pin.

📌GEX pinning concentrated at $100 and $105 — dealers will hedge toward those levels

🟠ATM IV very elevated for 4d expiry (70.1%) ahead of earnings — favours sellers after print

📈Net premium +$118.0M and large call premium at $100/$110 suggest skewed call demand vs puts

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol: Avg IV 50.9% with a huge short-dated IV spike (4d ATM 70.1%) — implies event-priced front end and large immediate gamma risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning: GEX +$234.2M with concentrated near-term GEX at $100/$105/$110 — dealers will hedge size toward those pins, creating mean-reversion within two-week EM bounds.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: Net premium +$118.0M and P/C vol 0.87 show call-heavy premium flow concentrated at $100 and $110 but P/C OI ~0.92 keeps put interest material; institutional buys on upside and selective tail hedges on downside.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $103.16 is above nearest MP ($93 on 4/17) which exerts downward gravitational pressure into expiries but rising MP trend reduces extreme downside bias.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentrations persist across the next 2–4 expirations (GEX clusters at $100/$105/$110 and MP trend rising), and IV term-structure normalizes after the short-dated earnings spike; prefer 30–45 DTE for primary positions with weeklies as tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 weeks

$94.79$111.54

Earnings (2026-04-16) and 4d IV 70.1% drive realized move; break < $96.41 or > $109.91 flips dealer hedging.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $93 (2026-04-17); $97 (2026-04-24); $98 (2026-05-01)

EM guardrails:

Support: $100.00 · $104.00 · $94.79

Resistance: $110.00 · $105.00 · $111.54

Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,176 (29.2% below spot)

Structural: Call OI wall $110–$125 caps sustained rallies; gamma flip/put floor at $73 is long-term structural downside stopper for multi-week to multi-month positions.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+234.2M

DEX: +149.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$73 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,176 (29.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large positive near-ATM gamma concentrated at $100 (+$21.4M GEX) and $105 (+$13.9M); dealers will buy dips toward those strikes and sell rallies away from them — a ±2% move ($101–$105) will trigger heavy hedge flows toward the pins, compressing moves; a >+~8% rally toward $111+$ forces dealers to purchase stock and widen the move until call OI wall is hit.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 50.9% >> VIX 19.12; front-end IV extremely rich (4d ATM 70.1) due to earnings while 30–45d ATM sits 37.9%–45.0%; overall IV rich vs index vol.

Term structure: Steep front-loaded term structure: 4d 70.1% → 11d 51.0% → 39d 37.9%; clear event kink around 4/16 earnings.

Skew: Notable skew: large call premium at $100 and $110; mispriced opportunity: sell front-week IV (4/17) premium vs buy 30–45d (e.g., sell 4/17 ATM, buy 5/22 ATM) — ~30pt front-to-back vol differential at the extreme front; prefer calendars/diagonals where you SELL the higher-IV leg.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $118.0M (call-heavy) concentrated at $100 and $110; P/C vol 0.87, P/C OI 0.92.

Directional prints: 69.2 put 103 OTM 2026-04-17 — $103P 4/17 (Vol 2,233 / OI 557) — could be buyer of downside protection or short conversion; in mixed flow, interpreted as institutional hedge (buy puts) — buy-puts more consistent with call-heavy net premium. 70.3 call 113 OTM 2026-04-17 — $113C 4/17 (Vol 4,432 / OI 575) — directional upside speculative or call buys for skewed upside exposure; given big call premium at $100, likely directional buys.

Unusual: 70.3 call 113 OTM 2026-04-17 — High flow into $113C 4/17 (4,432 vol vs OI 575) — speculative upside or gamma-seeking buys that increase short-dated IV.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings 2026-04-16; 4d IV 70.1% could collapse (vol crush) or spike realized move beyond EM bounds.

!Gamma flip at ~$73 is distant but put floor concentration at $73 implies asymmetric large-tail protection concentration — sudden flight to $73 would create violent dealer buying/selling.

!Max pain series lower (nearest MP $93 on 4/17) exerts gravitational pull into expiries; failure to hold $100/$104 could accelerate move to lower MPs.

!Large call OI wall $110–$125 — a sustained rally into that band could provoke stretched dealer hedging and a fast move higher before resistance absorbs flows.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at market $103.16	Earnings gap and high short-dated IV can cause quick drawdowns; capital intensive.
Short stock	Weak	Short shares at market or on strength to $110	Positive GEX and dealer hedging toward $100/$105 make sustained downtrends less likely; high borrowing risk.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy shares + sell 2026-05-22 $110 call	Caps upside below $110 call wall; earnings gap risk before roll.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-22 $100 cash-secured put or sell $100/$95 put spread 2026-05-22	Spot reversion toward MP ($93) and earnings-induced drop; manage if <$96.41 (4d EM).
Long calls	Weak	Buy 2026-05-22 $110 call (directional)	High time decay and expensive relative IV; better as play after post-earnings vol crush.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-04-24 $100/$95 put spread	Expensive short-dated IV; works if post-earnings gap down >EM support.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-22 $95/$90 put wing and $110/$115 call wing	Large IV moves through earnings or >$111.54 or <$94.79 breach wings; collect premium from elevated term IV.
Calendar / diagonal (sell high-IV front, buy back-month)	Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $103 call (IV 70.1%) / buy 2026-05-22 $103 call (IV 37.9%) — sell front-week high-IV, buy 30–45d lower-IV (front-to-back vol differential ~32pt).	Front-week realized move >expected move causes loss; requires mean-reversion post-earnings for profit.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-22 $110 call against long 2027-01-15 $100 LEAP call (buy long-term exposure while collecting premium)	Assignment risk if rally; structural time premium and lower long-dated IV reduce decay benefit.

Top Plays

Front-week sell / back-month buy calendar (earnings vol sell)

Sell 2026-04-17 $103 call / buy 2026-05-22 $103 call

Sells extremely rich 4d IV (70.1%) and buys 39d IV (37.9%) capturing ~32 vol-pt front-to-back edge; benefits if price mean-reverts post-earnings to pin region.

Credit: $0.90-$1.40

Max loss: Unlimited (short call leg) / hedgable

BE: Varies by fill; manage to front-week break-even via delta hedges

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit after vol crush or roll short leg wider if pin holds; cut if spot > $111.54 or IV rises >+10pts after print.

Traders who want directional-neutral income and can manage front-week gamma.

Sell 30–45d defined-risk iron condor

Sell 2026-05-22 $95/$90 put spread + sell $110/$115 call spread (defined risk)

Uses positive GEX and moderate VIX to collect premium in a mean-reverting regime with structural call wall $110; defined-risk and time to survive earnings noise.

Credit: $1.00-$1.80

Max loss: $400.00

BE: Lower wing breakeven ~94 / upper ~116 (depends on collected credit)

Mgmt: Take 50% profit at 25% of max loss; widen or roll if spot gravitating to $100 pin or if IV compresses aggressively.

Accounts preferring defined risk and collecting elevated term premium.

Sell 30–45d cash-secured put or put spread

Sell 2026-05-22 $100 cash-secured put or sell $100/$95 put spread

Collects premium around strong GEX pin at $100 with defined risk if assigned; term gives time for MP attraction to work and for front-week vol to settle.

Credit: $2.10-$3.50

Max loss: $500.00

BE: $97.90

Mgmt: Close at 50–70% P/L or roll down if spot < $96.41 (4d EM lower) or if earnings produce sustained downside.

Traders wanting to buy stock below current price with income or defined-risk cash buyers.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot trades and holds $100.00 for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-05-22 $100/$95 put spread

IFIf IV (4d) drops >10 vol-pts after earnings (from 70.1% to <60%) → Sell 2026-05-22 iron condor $95/$90 x $110/$115

IFIf spot gaps down and trades <$96.41 (4d low) → Buy 2026-04-24 $100/$95 put spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot > $111.54 (2-week upper EM) → Take profits and close short call wings / calendars; avoid assignment

EXITIf VIX >25 and spot <$100 → Exit all short premium and switch to directional hedges (buy puts)

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealers’ positive GEX pins NFLX toward $100–$105 over multi-week horizon; invalidation below $94.79 (2-week EM lower) or sustained trade above $111.54. Regime favors selling front-week/high-IV into buying 30–45d protection (calendars/diagonals) and defined-risk ironors/put spreads; top plays: 1) front-week sell/back-month buy calendar (sell 4/17, buy 5/22 $103 call), 2) 30–45d iron condor (sell 95/90 & 110/115 5/22), 3) sell 5/22 $100/$95 put spread for income or stock entry.

Read the Directional analysis for NFLX for 2026-04-13. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.