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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $107.71EOD only

Max Pain

$95.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.78

7.2% from close

Price Gap

-12.71

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.82

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 15, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 15, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with an upside magnet toward the near-term guardrail at $112.00 (pinning); confidence base 7.5/10. Primary supports: heavy bullish net premium +$106.8M, positive GEX $312.8M concentrated at $110/$112, and call-heavy premium at $110/$105/$120; conflicts: spot is 13.4% above long-run max pain (~$95) and earnings tomorrow (2026-04-16) create binary 2d IV at 99.7% that can blow the short premium thesis. The presence of 2026-05-15 $122 call accumulation (Vol 3,420 OI 949) nudges the posture slightly more multi-week bullish after earnings but the immediate regime remains event-specific.

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

Baseline breakdown: base score 5.0 + GEX/flow alignment +2.0 + positive GEX (pinning) +1.0 - spot distance from MP -1.0 + VIX signal +0.5 = 7.5 total; adjustments are additive to the baseline and justify the final 7.5 score. No override because the deterministic inputs (earnings IV, GEX, net premium and OI concentrations including the $122 call flow) are already reflected.

Supports: Net premium +$106.8M; GEX concentration +$28.3M at $112 and +$14.2M at $110; call-heavy premium at $110 ($17.56M net) and strong OI at $120/$140.
Conflicts: Spot 13.4% above MP (~$95) and large short-dated IV (2d ATM 99.7%) from earnings; P/C ratios <1 showing bullish flow but increases tail risk if earnings miss.

📌Pinning behavior: meaningful GEX at $110-$112 creates an upside magnet into next two expiries (2d EM upper bound $115.48).

💥Earnings tomorrow: 2d ATM IV 99.7% — high gamma and potential for rapid dealer hedging around ±2% moves.

📈Bullish flow: Net premium +$106.8M and P/C vol 0.73 indicate call-buying, supporting upside pressure toward $112-$115.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High volatility driven by earnings (ATM IV 99.7% for 2026-04-17) with IV term structure collapsing after the earnings date (59.2% at 9d then 48.5% at 16d).

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning regime: positive total GEX +$312.8M concentrated at $110/$112 causing dealer delta selling on rallies above those strikes and delta buying on weakness; dealers will try to keep spot near those pins short-term.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow: net premium +$106.8M, P/C vol 0.73 and heavy call premium at $110 and $105 indicate directional long-call or call-spread buying — skew favors call demand.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above MP: current spot $107.71 sits ~13.4% above systemic MP (~$95); that distance reduces immediate pin-down probability but concentrated near-term GEX (110/112) provides a nearer-term magnet.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Regime dominated by earnings tomorrow (2d IV spike) and concentrated short-dated GEX/pins at 110/112; expect resolution post-earnings with regime likely to shift within 1-2 weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$99.93$115.48

Earnings-driven move; a beat + positive macro likely pushes toward the 2d upper guardrail $115.48; a miss would breach $99.93 support quickly.

Next 1 week

$103.63$111.78

Post-earnings IV collapse (99.7% → 59.2%) favors mean-reversion; sustained upside needs follow-through above $112 resistance.

Next 2 weeks

$98.78$116.63

Continuation requires hold >$110 and dealer hedging flip past $112; break below $98.78 invalidates upside thesis.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $95 (2026-04-17); $97 (2026-04-24); $99 (2026-05-01)

EM guardrails: 2d $99.93/$115.48; 1w $103.63/$111.78

Support: $98.78

Resistance: $110.00 · $112.00 · $116.63

Structural: Structural call OI wall $120-$140 provides a longer-term cap (resistance) while put floor at $73 is a distal support layer; note: concentrated 2026-05-15 $122 call flow (Vol 3,420 OI 949) reinforces the $120-$140 cap in the medium term.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+312.8M

DEX: +162.9M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Near-the-money gamma concentrated at $112 (+$28.3M) and $110 (+$14.2M) means dealers will sell delta into rallies above those strikes and buy delta on weakness below them — a move +2% from $107.71 (~$109.87) increases short-call hedging pressure, while a -2% move (~$105.56) will reduce dealer short-call hedges and can exacerbate downside via gamma buying; large positive GEX overall mutes acceleration but keeps spot attracted to $110-$112 pins.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: NFLX IV is rich vs VIX on the 2d expiry (99.7% vs VIX 18.17) because of earnings; beyond that the 9d ATM IV 59.2% and 16d 48.5% remain elevated vs broader market implying premium for idiosyncratic risk — favors selling short-dated vol post-earnings and buying medium-dated protection if directional.

Term structure: Steep front-month spike (2d 99.7%) collapsing to 59.2% at 9d and ~48.5% at 16d indicates strong event-pricing kink on 2026-04-17; IV crush expected after release.

Skew: Skew is call-heavy in premium flow but puts fairly cheap beyond deep OTM; mispriced opportunity: sell post-earnings decay on 2026-04-24/05-01 call calendars or buy 16-37 DTE put protection where IV falls but not fully priced-in (put calendar using 2026-04-24 short and 2026-05-01 long puts).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium strongly bullish +$106.8M with P/C vol 0.73 and P/C OI 0.82, consistent with call-buying and upside pressure toward $110-$120.

Directional prints: 97.3 call 117 OTM 2026-04-17 — Large 2026-04-17 $117 calls (Vol 5,185 OI 645) likely bought calls/speculative upside into earnings; preferred read: bought calls aligning with call-heavy flow. 99.1 put 107 OTM 2026-04-17 — 2026-04-17 $107 puts (Vol 1,786 OI 572) are significant short-dated put flow near spot; ambiguous (protective buys vs put-sellers) but given call-heavy net premium, treat as protection demand that increases short-term hedging and reduces confidence in pure short-premium prior to earnings. 42.3 call 122 OTM 2026-05-15 — 2026-05-15 $122 calls (Vol 3,420 OI 949) show large multi-month call accumulation that extends bullish duration beyond earnings; read as position-taking for sustained upside and adds structural weight to the bullish thesis post-crush. 58.5 put 107 OTM 2026-04-24 — 2026-04-24 $107 puts (Vol 882 OI 157) could be protection or income; with dominant bullish flow, preferred read is short-term protection demand, but selling interpretation remains possible after IV collapse. 44.7 call 105 ITM 2026-05-29 — 2026-05-29 $105 calls with elevated flow (Vol 522 OI 115) align with longer-dated call accumulation; supports multi-week upside positioning.

Unusual: 99.2 put 112 ITM 2026-04-17 — 2026-04-17 $112 puts (Vol 509 OI 143) notable IV and OI: likely protective buys or conversions; increases hedging demand into earnings.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings (2026-04-16) — IV 99.7%: a surprise will trigger large IV crush or spike and rapid dealer hedging within 24-48h.

!Gamma re-pricing: dealer hedging around $110-$112 can amplify intraday moves ±2%.

!Post-earnings IV crush risk: selling short-dated calls pre-earnings is highly risky; prefer debit or defined-risk structures until IV collapses.

!Macro/sector: QQQ strength supports upside, but broad risk-off would push NFLX toward $99 support quickly.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Call diagonal	Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 $115.00 call / buy 2026-05-22 $120.00 call Why now: Sell near-term rich call (short 4-9d) and buy longer-dated call (30-60 DTE) at higher strike to retain upside with lower vega risk; fits event-specific regime with steep front-end IV.	Calendar exposed to directional gap if stock gaps violently through short strike on earnings — defined by long call tail.
Put credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-04-24 $100.00/$96.00 put spread Why now: Shorter-dated put spread (~9-16 DTE) benefits from IV crush and positive theta with limited downside to support $98.78-$100.	Tail risk on earnings gap; must size conservatively and choose strikes away from expected gap range.
Bull call spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-04-24 $111.00/$115.00 call spread Why now: Buy a near-term 9-30 DTE bull call spread anchored at the $110-$115 area where dealer gamma is concentrated to capture the pinning move with lower cost than naked calls.	Loses premium if upside fails; vega loss if IV collapses but spread reduces net vega.
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-22 $98.00 cash-secured put Why now: Support $98.78 and EM guardrails imply $100 is a reasonable target for CS put sellers after IV collapse; use 30-45 DTE to avoid immediate front-month earnings risk.	Assignment risk if stock gaps down; requires cash to cover shares.
Call credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-05-01 $120.00/$125.00 call spread Why now: High OI at $120/$140 creates resistance; a call credit spread 115/120 or 120/125 after earnings can harvest premium with defined risk.	If momentum continues, spread can be challenged; manage with stops.
Bullish risk reversal	Conditional	Buy 2026-05-22 $115.00 call / sell 2026-05-22 $102.00 put Why now: Post-earnings IV collapse will reduce cost of calls; use 16-37 DTE strikes around $105 short put / $115 long call to express conviction while managing assignment risk.	Assignability and path risk; directional exposure amplified if wrong.

Top Plays

Post-earnings call diagonal (sell Apr24 115 / buy May22 120)

Sell 2026-04-24 $115.00 call / buy 2026-05-22 $120.00 call

Express bullish post-earnings follow-through: sell the near-term rich Apr24 $115 call and buy a May22 $120 call to capture IV crush on the short leg while retaining upside exposure to the $120 cap supported by multi-month call accumulation.

Why this play: Matches leg intents (short Apr24 115 / long May22 120) and benefits from steep front-end IV; aligned with positive GEX at $110-$112 and $122 multi-month demand.

Credit/Debit: N/A

Max loss: N/A

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close short leg into immediate post-release IV collapse; hold or roll long call if price trends above $120.

Traders seeking bullish exposure with vega control and defined roll mechanics.

Bull call spread anchored at $111 (buy Apr24 111 / sell May01 115)

Buy 2026-04-24 $111.00 call / sell 2026-05-01 $115.00 call

Defined-risk directional spread sized to capture a rally into the $112 pin with limited vega; reduces cost versus naked calls and plays the concentrated GEX at $110-$112.

Why this play: Aligns title and setup to 111/115 strikes; consistent with preference for near-term defined-risk bullish exposure ahead of dealer pin behavior.

Credit/Debit: N/A

Max loss: N/A

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Take profits if price >115 or reduce if price closes below $103.63 (1w lower EM).

Smaller accounts or those wanting limited-risk upside exposure.

Short-dated put credit spread (sell Apr24 100 / buy Apr24 96)

Sell 2026-04-24 $100.00 put / buy 2026-04-24 $96.00 put

Sell premium on the short-dated put wing to harvest theta after expected IV crush; uses support $98.78 and 1w EM guardrail $103.63 as rationale for strike selection.

Why this play: Defined-risk income play that benefits from post-earnings IV drop and bullish net premium; size conservatively due to earnings tail risk.

Credit/Debit: N/A

Max loss: N/A

BE: N/A

Traders comfortable with assignment risk and seeking short-term income.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf after earnings (post 2026-04-16) price settles >$112.00 and 9d IV (2026-04-24) drops below 50% then → enter S1 (short 2026-04-24 112 call, long 2026-05-22 115 call) per leg intents.

IFIf post-earnings price prints between $100.00 and $105.00 and 16d IV (2026-05-01) <=48% then → enter S3 (put credit spread short 2026-04-24 100 / long 95) sized for defined risk.

IFIf price gaps down to <=$103.63 (1w lower EM) pre-market then → enter S5 (cash-secured short 2026-05-22 100 put) to acquire stock at discounted level.

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf short-call leg (Apr24 112) in S1 reaches 70% of max profit within 3 trading days after earnings then → close short_call (2026-04-24 112) and keep long_call (2026-05-22 115) as directional hold.

ADJIf price moves +5% from spot to >=$113.10 (approx +5%) and open interest at $120 shows large flows, then → trim bullish positions (reduce long_call exposure or convert S4 into wider spread) and consider S6 (call credit spread) for resistance play.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf price closes below $98.78 (deterministic support) on any daily close then → exit or hedge all short premium positions (close short_puts/short_calls) and buy 30-60 DTE puts for protection.

EXITIf IV30 (30d ATM) rises >+5 vol points from current 40.9% to above 46% without price improvement then → take profits on sold calendars/shorts and reduce vega exposure (close S2/S8 positions).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: earnings-driven pin to $110-$112 with post-release IV collapse — favor event-specific calendars/diagonals and defined-risk debit spreads; invalidation below $98.78. Top plays: S1 diagonal for structured upside (best for directional with vega control), S2 put calendar for term-structure capture (best for income with protection), S4 bull call spread for straightforward defined-risk upside (best for smaller accounts).

Read the Directional analysis for NFLX for 2026-04-15. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.