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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $107.79EOD only

Max Pain

$95.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.92

7.3% from close

Price Gap

-12.79

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.82

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 16, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Slightly bullish: dealers net long gamma into this week's expiries, with concentrated short-dated OI at $97–$100 likely to pin through Friday; expect consolidation with upside bias toward $101–102 if breadth holds after weekly GEX decays.

Confidence:

9 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow aligned; +1 spot near MP; -1 rich short-term IV increases hedging cost.

Supports: Dealer GEX +$18.6M, DEX +141.7M shares; concentrated weekly OI at $97–$100; spot inside 1w guardrails.
Conflicts: Front-week IV is elevated versus its 3-month average, raising hedging cost despite VIX~17 being moderate.

📌Short-dated OI cluster $97–$100; highest pin risk into this Friday's weekly expiry

🟢Dealer GEX +$18.6M and DEX +141.7M => near-term pinning/support likely pre-expiry

⚠️Front-week IV rich vs 3-month avg (and higher than VIX-neutralizing level), so premium buying is expensive

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

Front-week IV is high relative to the 3-month average (rich); VIX (~17) is moderate but term IV curve shows elevated near-dated vols, making short-dated hedging costly.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning regime: dealers net long gamma now; significant GEX decays into each weekly expiry (peak pin risk Wednesday–Friday), reducing pin strength after expiry unless rolled.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net bullish premium flow into short-dated strikes supporting dealer short-delta hedges and upward pin pressure into weekly expiries.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot sits at the $97–$100 max-pain band and inside 1w guardrails, increasing likelihood of consolidation/pinning through the current weekly expiry window.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Repeated weekly OI clusters and dealer GEX alignment with flow across successive expiries create multi-week pinning potential, though strength resets each weekly decay.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$93.98$100.64

Consolidation $94–$101 with high pin risk into Friday; watch post-expiry roll activity.

Next 2 weeks

$92.69$101.92

If pin holds after successive weeklies, bias to test $101–$103; failure to re-establish OI favors mean reversion.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $97 (2026-04-17); $100 (2026-04-24); $100 (2026-05-01)

EM guardrails: 1w $93.98/$100.64

Support: $97.00 · $92.69

Resistance: $100.00 · $101.92 · $105.00

Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,167 (25.0% below spot)

Structural: Max pain cluster $97–$100; 1w guardrails $93.98 / $100.64. Support: 97, 92.69. Resistance: 100, 101.92, 105. Gamma flip ≈ $73.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+18.6M

DEX: +141.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$73 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,167 (25.0% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX +$18.6M, DEX +141.7M shares; dealers long gamma near spot, creating pinning/support into weekly expiries; GEX decays into Wed–Fri expiries unless dealers roll positions.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Front-week IV is rich vs its 3-month average and modestly above VIX (~17); this means near-dated options are expensive relative to multi-week vol and favors sellers of short-dated premium if risk-managed.

Term structure: Elevated front-month/front-week IV with roll-down into longer expiries; clear kinks at weekly expiries aligned with $97–$100 OI concentration.

Skew: Put skew concentrated below spot—opportunity to sell short-dated premium or structure spreads into resistance if accepting tail risk post-expiry.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium inflow ~ $14.55M. Method: sum of reported trade premiums from tape: 97C (59,600 contracts) = $5.96M, 99C (55,700) = $5.57M, 98C (30,200) = $3.02M; net = $5.96M+$5.57M+$3.02M = $14.55M. Previous ~$87.8M was incorrect.

Directional prints: 17.4 call 97 ITM 2026-04-17 — Very large same-day call block (59.6k contracts, low IV relative to longer-dated) — likely aggressive buy-side directional calls. 17.2 call 99 OTM 2026-04-17 — Heavy near-term call flow (55.7k contracts) — adds short-dated bullish pressure/pinning. 29.9 call 98 OTM 2026-04-24 — Multi-day large call print (30.2k contracts) reinforcing bullish exposure.

Unusual: 30.8 put 88 OTM 2026-05-22 — High vol/oi on deep-dated puts (61.6 OI) — potential hedge or tail speculative buy. 29.8 call 97 ITM 2026-04-24 — Unusually high near-term call volume (20.5k) vs low OI — likely buys. 29.9 call 98 OTM 2026-04-24 — Large mid-dated call print (30.2k) — standout for bullish flow.

Risks & Catalysts

!Pin fails post-weekly expiry roll leading to quick mean reversion

!Sharp IV spike making hedges costly and flipping dealer positioning

!Large downside flow forcing gamma flip if sustained and heavy

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Put credit spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 $97.00/$93.00 put spread Why now: Concentrated short-dated call flow and dealer long gamma create bias; sell puts to harvest premium with defined risk.	Pin fails or IV spikes causing rapid adverse moves.
Bull call spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-08 $101.00/$106.00 call spread Why now: Upside bias and call blocks suggest buyers; use debit spread to leverage upside while limiting cost.	IV rise or quick mean reversion makes spread expensive or wrong-sided.
Cash-secured put	Moderate	Sell 2026-05-22 $94.00 cash-secured put Why now: Sell OTM puts where dealer pinning and short-dated flows concentrate; aim for 4–6 week duration.	Sudden downside flow forces assignment at levels below expectation.
Call diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 $100.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $102.00 call Why now: Near-term call OI concentrated and elevated short-dated flows; term-structure favors selling front vol.	Front IV spike or strong rally causes losses on short leg before decay.
Bullish risk reversal	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-22 $102.00 call / sell 2026-05-22 $94.00 put Why now: Large call blocks suggest buyer demand; pair long call with sold put to reduce cost and lean into upside.	Sustained downside flow flips positioning and produces large losses on short put.

Top Plays

Buy 5/8 101/106 bull call spread

Buy 2026-05-08 $101.00/$106.00 call spread

Debit spread captures upside toward 101–106 while limiting premium spend vs naked calls; benefits if weekly front GEX decays and breadth holds.

Why this play: Best risk-reward to express the multi-week upside bias with defined cost.

Debit: $0.82-$1.00

Max loss: $1.00

BE: $102.00

Mgmt: Scale into 0.82–1.00 fill; trim into gains toward 104–106 or roll up if IV spikes; cut if stock closes below 97 and momentum fails.

Directional bulls wanting capped risk and leverage.

Sell 5/1 100 call / buy 6/18 102 call (call diagonal)

Sell 2026-05-01 $100.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $102.00 call

Sells near-term premium where OI is concentrated and buys longer call to keep upside; expresses dealer short front vol edge.

Why this play: Harvests short-dated front-call flow and time decay while keeping upside exposure longer dated.

Debit: $1.62-$1.97

Max loss: $1.97

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Target 1.62–1.97 entry; buy back front call into pin risk/expiry or roll to later short leg; unwind if sharp IV spike or sustained move below 97.

Traders who want to monetize front-week decay while staying long term bullish.

Sell 5/1 97/93 put credit spread

Sell 2026-05-01 $97.00/$93.00 put spread

Defined-risk short put spread to harvest short-term consolidation/upside bias into weekly expiry.

Why this play: Collects premium aligned with dealer long-gamma and short-call pinning, with defined downside risk.

Credit: $1.23-$1.50

Max loss: $2.50

BE: $95.50

Mgmt: Aim for 1.23–1.50 fills; take profits early on decay or roll lower if delta expands; stop/close if price breaks and closes below 97.

Yield-seeking traders comfortable with defined but limited downside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF NFLX daily close >101 AND 5-day adv/dec ratio >1.2 → THEN buy s2 (Buy 5/8 101/106 BCS) sized per plan at 0.82–1.00; trim into 104–106; invalidate on daily close <97

IFIF NFLX trades 97–100 into front-week expiry (≤7 days) AND OI pin-probability at 97–100 >30% OR short-delta clusters (3+ strikes within 0.10 delta band) → THEN sell s1 (Sell 5/1 97/93 put credit) target fill 1.23–1.50; take profits on time decay or roll lower if delta expands; stop on daily close <97

IFIF front-week IV decays and diagonal mid fills 1.62–1.97 AND front-week IV drop ≥15% vs 7-day prior → THEN initiate s4 (Sell 5/1 100 call / Buy 6/18 102 call) to monetize front decay; buy back/roll short leg into pin-risk or expiry

Exit Triggers

EXITIF price closes <97 OR IV spikes ≥30% intraday sustained >2 sessions → THEN close bullish defined-risk positions (s1, s2, s4) and reassess gamma/roll exposure

Tactical Summary

Slightly bullish multi‑week bias. Hard invalidation: daily close <97. Key resistance 100–102. Use defined‑risk bullish structures and monetize front‑week calls when IV and decay favor; enter sells when OI pin-prob ≥30% or short‑delta clustering present; monitor adv/dec (>1.2) as short‑term breadth confirmation and watch IV spikes for rapid exits.

Read the Directional analysis for NFLX for 2026-04-17. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.