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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $83.33EOD only
Max Pain
$86.00
Next expiry Jun 5, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.16
2.6% from close
Price Gap
+2.67
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
33
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.79
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 2, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 2, 2026 close
NFLX Directional Report
Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 10, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish bias with a pinning magnet between $100–$105 but underlying downside pressure toward max pain $97; Confidence: 7.0/10.

Confidence:
7 / 10
Base 7.0/10 from pre-computed: +226.5M GEX pinning and +$87.4M net premium supporting pin; counter: spot 6.2% above MP and elevated IV near-term (ATM 61.1% 7d) that prices in event/earnings risk.
Supports: GEX concentration at $100 (+$16.5M) and $104 (+$8.2M) with put floor at $73 creates strong dealer buy-side hedging; 1w EM lower bound $96.06.
Conflicts: Max pain trend falling ($97→$95 over expirations) and P/C volume 1.38 showing put demand; earnings 2026-04-16 near-term adds skew and IV kink.
📌GEX +$226.5M concentrated at 100/104/105 — dealers incentivized to pin between $100–$105
📈7d ATM IV 61.1% vs spot avg IV 50.3% — near-term volatility richly priced around earnings
🧭Max pain $97 (4/10) and $92 (4/17) provide downside gravity over next two weeks

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol: near-term IV 61.1% (4/17) well above longer-dated ATM ~36–38%, implying event-driven premium and term-structure steepness.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning: large positive GEX (+$226.5M) concentrated at $100/$104/$105 creates an NTM magnet and compresses realized moves near those strikes.
Flow Regime
Mixed
Mixed flow: net premium +$87.4M with P/C vol 1.38 shows institutional buying of puts and selective call buys; not uniform directional conviction.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot $103.01 is above MP levels ($97 → $95 trend) — short-term mean reversion tail risk toward MP remains present.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentrations persist across next 2–4 expirations (100/104/105 OI and MP trending lower), IV term-structure falls gradually beyond 2 weeks — favors 30–45 DTE positioning with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$96.06$109.96
Dealer hedging concentrated at $100/$104 will hold price if no earnings shock; break <$100 accelerates moves to MP $97.
Next 2 weeks
$95.29$110.74
Earnings (4/16) and 7d EM bound $96.06; failure to stay >$105 removes upside magnet at $105.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $97 (2026-04-10); $92 (2026-04-17); $95 (2026-04-24)
EM guardrails: 1w $96.06/$109.96
Support: $100.00 · $96.06 · $95.00
Resistance: $104.00 · $105.00 · $110.00
Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,178 (29.1% below spot)
Structural: Call OI wall $110–$125 caps large rallies; structural put floor and gamma flip clustered at $73 provides deep protection and limits extreme downside for long-dated bulls.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+226.5M

DEX: +147.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$73 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,178 (29.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Large positive NTM gamma centered at $100 (GEX +$16.5M) and $105/$104 (GEX +$10.6M/+8.2M) => dealers will buy dips into $100 and sell rallies into $105–$110; if spot falls >2% (~$100→$98), dealer delta buying intensifies toward pin; if spot rallies >2% (~$103→$105+), dealer hedges will sell into strength, reinforcing cap at $105.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 50.3% vs SPX VIX context (not provided) — near-term IV (61.1% 4/17) is rich vs longer-dated 36–38% showing event squeeze.

Term structure: Steep front-end: 4/17 ATM 61.1% → 4/24 ATM 48.5% (big 12.6pt drop) then decays toward ~36% at 69–98d — prime calendar/diagonal opportunities selling near-term vol.

Skew: Notable kink at 4/17; mispriced opportunity: sell 4/17 ATM (61.1%) vs buy 4/24 ATM (48.5%) — ~12.6 vol-pt edge for a regular calendar.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $87.4M net premium collected (institutional selling into calls but put demand present); P/C vol 1.38 indicates heavier put trading.

Directional prints: 67 call 90 ITM 2026-04-17 — Low OI but high vol prints at 90C earlier; could be risk reversals or spreads (bought calls vs sold puts) — bought-call interpretation less consistent with overall mixed flow. 48.7 call 107 OTM 2026-04-24 — 4/24 107C OI 758 (vol 2,690): directional upside hedge or structured seller; against net premium it's more likely hedging of long equity exposure.

Unusual: 38.6 put 90 OTM 2026-05-22 — 5/22 90P vol 11,246 vs OI 113 (99.5x) — likely institutional cheap tail-buy or block protection; dual interpretation: bought tail puts vs sold complex structured exposure; overall flow suggests protection buying.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings 2026-04-16 can spike IV and break pin — near-term IV 61.1% already prices risk.
!Gamma flip at ~$73 is distant but concentrated put OI there can reduce realized downside if a prolonged selloff arrives.
!MP trend falling to $92 (4/17) — if dealers roll pins lower, rapid downward repricing possible.
!Front-end IV drop to 48.5% at 4/24 creates calendar crash risk after earnings; poorly timed short-front premium vulnerable.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Long stockModerate-Weak
Buy shares at market $103.01
High IV/earnings risk; vulnerable to mean reversion to MP ~$97
Short stockModerate
Short shares or synthetics around $104–$105
Dealer pin/stop-buying at $100–$105 can create violent mean-reversion squeezes
Covered callModerate
Buy shares + sell 2026-05-15 115.0C
Capped upside at call; IV term benefit but earnings risk before positon entry
Cash-secured put / put spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-05-15 95.0P cash-secured or sell 95/90 put spread
Gamma flip below $73 and MP trend lower; needs spot hold >$95
Long calls (directional)Moderate-Weak
Buy 2026-04-24 110.0C (outcome if post-earnings upside)
High near-term IV; expensive front-end calls
Long puts / bear put spreadModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-04-24 100.0P / sell 95.0P (debit spread)
Front-end IV elevated but spread defined-risk; earnings can push move beyond wing
Iron condorModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-04-24 105.0C/110.0C and sell 2026-04-24 95.0P/90.0P (collect front-end premium)
IV crush post-earnings helps but gap risk to wings if earnings surprise
Calendar / diagonal (sell near-term, buy farther)Strong
Sell 2026-04-17 ATM (100.0–104.0) vs buy 2026-04-24 or 2026-05-15 ATM — example: sell 4/17 100.0 ATM, buy 4/24 100.0 (sell 61.1% vs buy 48.5% → +12.6 vol-pt edge)
Pin can move and front-week IV can spike; requires managing front-leg assignment risk
PMCC / LEAPS diagonalModerate-Strong
Buy 2027-01-15 77.0 LEAP call and sell 2026-04-24/2026-05-15 calls (roll short)
Long-term capital tied up; large IV term differential but requires conviction in structural recovery

Top Plays

#1
Front-end Calendar (Regular)
Sell 2026-04-17 100.0 Call (or ATM) buy 2026-04-24 100.0 Call
Sell rich 4/17 ATM IV 61.1% and buy 4/24 ATM IV 48.5% capturing ~12.6 vol-pt edge while riding dealer pin at $100.
Credit: $0.75-$1.20
Max loss: Limited to front-leg assignment + hedging costs
BE: Manage via vega and delta; target short-leg extrinsic decay
Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% realized theta; cut if spot closes outside $96–$105 or IV differential compresses to <5pt.
Traders wanting defined vega exposure and roll optionality
#2
Sell 95/90 Put Spread (Defined-risk bearish/marginally neutral)
Sell 2026-05-15 95.0P / Buy 2026-05-15 90.0P
Collect front-mid premium while aligning with MP ~95 and dealer pin support at $100; 30–45 DTE matches multi-week thesis.
Credit: $0.80-$1.60
Max loss: $4.20
BE: $94.20
Mgmt: Take profit at 50–70% of max credit; cut if spot <92 or if VIX >30.
Accounts wanting defined risk income with moderate bullish tolerance
#3
Bear Put Spread (Event-protective directional)
Buy 2026-04-24 100.0P / Sell 2026-04-24 95.0P
Defined bearish exposure over earnings window with limited cost vs buying naked puts given elevated IV; exploits downside MP trend.
Debit: $1.80-$2.50
Max loss: $3.20
BE: $98.20
Mgmt: Take profit at 40–50% of max gain; cut if spot >106 or if IV collapses without move.
Traders who expect a post-earnings reversion to MP and want capped risk

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIf spot tags $100.00 and holds 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-17 100.0 Call and buy 2026-04-24 100.0 Call (front-calendar)
IFIf spot pulls back to $96.06 (1w EM lower) and IV >50% → Sell 2026-05-15 95.0P / Buy 2026-05-15 90.0P put spread
IFIf post-earnings IV collapses >15 vol-pts on 4/17→4/24 and spot remains 100–105 → Sell 2026-04-24 105.0C / Buy 2026-04-24 110.0C (short call vertical)
Adjustment Triggers
ADJIf spot rallies and prints >105.00 for two consecutive closes → Hedge short premium by buying 2026-04-24 110.0C or roll short calls to 110.0/115.0 expirations
ADJIf spot falls <95.00 and 30d IV >55% → Buy 2026-04-24 100.0P / Sell 2026-05-15 95.0P (convert income to longer-dated protection)
Exit Triggers
EXITIf trade P/L reaches 60% of max profit for calendars or condors → Close position and remove front-week exposure
EXITIf VIX/IV spikes >30 and spot <97.00 → Exit all short premium positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealers pin between $100–$105 while MP trend and earnings bias produce mild downside toward $95–$97; invalidation is sustained close >$110; regime favors selling near-term vol into richer IV and using 30–45 DTE defined-risk spreads. Top plays: front-end regular calendar (sell 4/17 100 buy 4/24 100) for vol edge, sell 95/90 put spread (5/15) for income, and 4/24 bear put spread 100/95 around earnings for defined downside exposure.
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This directional reflects the market close on April 10, 2026.
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