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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $88.60EOD only

Max Pain

$89.00

Next expiry May 29, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.56

2.9% from close

Price Gap

+0.40

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.78

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with an upside bias into the week: spot $102.05 sits inside strong near-term pinning cluster and dealers are long gamma (GEX +$304.6M) which creates a magnet into the $100-$103 range; Confidence: 7.0/10.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 7.0 from pre-computed: +GEX/flow alignment, large positive GEX pinning near $100-$102; slight downgrade risk because spot is 5.2% above the multi-expiry max pain trend and IV is elevated (ATM avg IV 50.5%).

Supports: Largest supporting signals: GEX concentration +$38.7M at $100 and +$23.4M at $102; net premium inflow +$92.9M concentrated in calls ($100 call net $16,664,352; $105 call net $7,259,703).
Conflicts: Conflicting signals: falling max pain ladder ($97→$95) and MP near-term at $97 (2026-04-10) vs spot 5.05% above; elevated avg IV 50.5% could compress into earnings on 2026-04-16.

📌Pinning concentrated at $100/$101/$102 totals >$79M GEX — expect strong mean-reversion pressure inside next 2 days

📈Call-heavy net premium +$92.9M with big OI at $105 and $125 indicates bullish institutional skew — favors defined bullish or premium-selling near pins

⚠️Earnings 2026-04-16 and ATM IV term kink (1d 35.5% → 8d 58.9%) create sharp short-term vol repricing risk

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol regime: Avg IV 50.5% with ATM term kink (1d 35.5% → 8d 58.9%) — options are rich near-term around earnings.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning gamma: GEX +$304.6M with concentrated near-spot GEX at $100/$101/$102; dealers will hedge heavily, producing mean-reversion into the pin.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow: Net premium +$92.9M, P/C vol 0.60 and P/C OI 0.89; largest premium sits in calls (notably $100 and $105) — institutional buyers leaning long calls.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $102.05 is above nearest MP $97 (2026-04-10) and above MP trend; this creates asymmetric downside pressure if pin fails but currently supports mild upside magnet given dealer hedging.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning persists across next expirations (GEX concentrations at $100/$101/$102) and MP trend declines over multiple expirations; prefer 30-45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays into earnings.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$100.58$103.53

Dealer hedging and GEX pins at $100/$102 will tug spot toward $100-$103; break <$100.58 accelerates downside.

Next 1 week

$94.95$109.15

Earnings (2026-04-16) and large call flow at $105/$110 determine direction; hold above $95 to keep bullish tilt.

Next 2 weeks

$94.10$110.00

Sustained call OI wall $110-$125 and EM upper bound ~$110 will constrain rallies; failure below $94.95 opens trend to MP lower targets around $92-$95.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $97 (2026-04-10); $92 (2026-04-17); $95 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 2d $100.58/$103.53; 1w $94.95/$109.15

Support: $100.00 · $99.00 · $95.00

Resistance: $105.00 · $110.00 · $125.00

Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,184 (28.5% below spot)

Structural: Structural layers: large call OI wall $110-$125 caps upside; deep put concentration and gamma flip at $73 forms long-term downside floor (put floor $73).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+304.6M

DEX: +151.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$73 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,184 (28.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-the-money gamma concentrated at $100 (+$38.7M), $101 (+$23.0M) and $102 (+$23.4M) — dealers will buy spot when spot falls and sell when it rises inside this band, amplifying mean-reversion; a ±2% move (~$100-$104) will force heavy delta adjustments toward pin (buying into dips toward $100, selling into strength toward $104).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 50.5% is rich versus typical index levels and elevated into earnings; near-term ATM IVs spike to 58.9% (2026-04-17) reflecting earnings risk.

Term structure: Kinked: 1d ATM 35.5% → 8d ATM 58.9% → 15d 48.8% — short-dated IV is cheap relative to 8d which is expensive (earnings read-through).

Skew: Skew: call-heavy premium at $100/$105 and elevated IV around 8d suggests selling premium on the 8d window (sell higher-IV near-term vs buy farther-dated). Look at selling 2026-04-17 options vs 2026-05-01 where IV falls (~58.9% → ~43.8% at 22d).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $92.9M (call-dominated) concentrated at $100 (net $16,664,352) and $105 (net $7,259,703).

Directional prints: 50.8 call 99 ITM 2026-04-17 — Large call OI at $100/$99 cluster (multi-lot flow) — could be buy-to-open calls or dealer sales; paired with positive net premium, more consistent with institutional call buying. 38.8 call 105 OTM 2026-05-22 — Significant call premium at $105 with OI concentration — either directional longs or hedges; within bullish net flow this reads as bullish call accumulation.

Unusual: 33.6 put 102 OTM 2026-04-10 — Short-dated put flow 102p exp 2026-04-10 vol 4,951 vs OI 379 — could be quick buying of downside protection or put selling; given call-heavy net premium, more likely protective buys.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings 2026-04-16: IV compression or gap move can blow short-premium positions; 8d IV at 58.9% signals large repricing risk.

!Gamma flip at ~$73 — a rapid downside move to that region would remove dealer cushion and create trend acceleration lower.

!Falling MP trend and spot 5.2% above MP increases risk of mean reversion into $95-$97 if dealer pinning fails.

!Large call OI at $110-$125 can cap rallies and create profit-taking pressure if price tests $110.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at $102.05	Earnings gap/risk and high IV make stock outright less attractive without hedge.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid naked short stock — GEX positive creates mean-reversion against trend	Dealer gamma will work against trend; large call flow can pin higher.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-01 110.0 call	Capped upside at 110; earnings gap risk before 2026-04-16.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 100.0 put or sell 2026-05-01 100.0/96.0 put spread	If spot collapses below 96 on earnings, defined loss on spread; gamma flip far below reduces immediate dealer support.
Long calls (directional)	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-01 105.0 call	Expensive IV and time decay; better as post-earnings trade if IV compresses.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-01 96.0 put or buy 2026-05-01 96.0/90.0 bear put spread	Costs elevated; useful if price breaks <$95 support.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 100.0/96.0 put spread and 105.0/110.0 call spread — net short premium around pin	Earnings IV repricing and >±7.95 move (15d EM to $94.10/$110.00) can breach wings; requires active management.
Calendar / diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 102.0 call, buy 2026-05-01 102.0 call (sell higher-IV near-term, buy lower-IV farther-dated) — IV spread ~58.9% vs 43.8% (~+15pt)	Execution slippage in short leg; earnings event between legs increases gamma exposure.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2027-01-15 96.0 put hedge or buy 2027-01-15 call diagonal (buy long-dated call, sell nearer dated against stock)	Term premium and funding cost; use if structural directional view over months.

Top Plays

Sell 100/96 put spread 2026-05-01

Sell 2026-05-01 100.0/96.0 put spread

Collect premium inside strong dealer pin at $100 with wide GEX support; positive net premium and puts priced rich across 22d window.

Credit: $0.90-$1.40

Max loss: $300.00

BE: $99.10

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max credit; cut if spot <96 or IV spikes >+15pt.

Defined-risk premium buyers comfortable holding through earnings with 3-week DTE.

Sell 102 calendar (sell 4/17, buy 5/01)

Sell 2026-04-17 102.0 call, buy 2026-05-01 102.0 call (regular calendar)

Sell elevated near-term IV 58.9% and buy lower 22d IV 43.8% (~15pt differential) to harvest theta into earnings while retaining 30d directional cover.

Credit: $0.40-$0.90

Max loss: $1000.00

BE: Depends on roll; monitor front-month move >±2%

Mgmt: Close short leg after earnings if IV collapses; cut if spot rallies >+3% above 102 into resistance at 105 or VIX-like vol jump.

Traders wanting to sell premium against earnings with defined vega exposure.

Iron condor 30d around pin (sell 4/24 wings)

Sell 2026-04-24 100.0/96.0 put spread and 105.0/110.0 call spread (net short premium)

Leverages dealer pinning and positive GEX to collect rich IV across 15d window while using defined wings aligned with EM bounds ($94.10-$110.00).

Credit: $1.20-$2.00

Max loss: $380.00

BE: Lower BE ~98.8 / Upper BE ~107.2

Mgmt: Take profit at 40-60% of max credit; widen or roll if spot breaches EM bounds or IV jumps.

Accounts comfortable short premium with active management; avoids outright directional bias.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $100.00 and holds for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-05-01 100.0/96.0 put spread

IFIf 2026-04-17 ATM IV >58.0% (front-month remains elevated) → Initiate sell 2026-04-17 102.0 call / buy 2026-05-01 102.0 call calendar

IFIf spot rallies to $105.00 and fails to close above for two sessions → Sell 2026-04-24 105.0/110.0 call spread as upside wing for condor

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot falls below $96.00 → Buy 2026-05-01 96.0 put to hedge short put spreads or roll down wings

ADJIf IV collapses >20 vol-pts post-earnings (e.g., 8d IV drops from 58.9% to <40%) → Buy back short front-month calls (close calendars) and reestablish longer-dated long calls/2026-05-01

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot <94.95 (1w EM lower bound) → Close all short premium and convert to debit protective structures (buy protection)

EXITIf trade reaches 60-70% of max profit → Take profits on short premium positions (close or tighten wings)

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealers' large positive GEX (+$304.6M) pins price into $100-$103 — favor defined short premium and calendars that sell the elevated front-month IV; invalidation: sustained break and close below $94.95 (1w EM lower bound) which opens trend to $92-$95 and favors directional puts. Top plays: sell 100/96 put spread (best for defined premium), sell 102 calendar (sell front-month IV), and 30d iron condor around pin (best for active premium selling).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.