NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Outlook

Neutral-to-bullish with an upside bias into the week: spot $102.05 sits inside strong near-term pinning cluster and dealers are long gamma (GEX +$304.6M) which creates a magnet into the $100-$103 range; Confidence: 7.0/10.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 7.0 from pre-computed: +GEX/flow alignment, large positive GEX pinning near $100-$102; slight downgrade risk because spot is 5.2% above the multi-expiry max pain trend and IV is elevated (ATM avg IV 50.5%).

Supports: Largest supporting signals: GEX concentration +$38.7M at $100 and +$23.4M at $102; net premium inflow +$92.9M concentrated in calls ($100 call net $16,664,352; $105 call net $7,259,703).
Conflicts: Conflicting signals: falling max pain ladder ($97→$95) and MP near-term at $97 (2026-04-10) vs spot 5.05% above; elevated avg IV 50.5% could compress into earnings on 2026-04-16.

📌Pinning concentrated at $100/$101/$102 totals >$79M GEX — expect strong mean-reversion pressure inside next 2 days

📈Call-heavy net premium +$92.9M with big OI at $105 and $125 indicates bullish institutional skew — favors defined bullish or premium-selling near pins

⚠️Earnings 2026-04-16 and ATM IV term kink (1d 35.5% → 8d 58.9%) create sharp short-term vol repricing risk

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol regime: Avg IV 50.5% with ATM term kink (1d 35.5% → 8d 58.9%) — options are rich near-term around earnings.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning gamma: GEX +$304.6M with concentrated near-spot GEX at $100/$101/$102; dealers will hedge heavily, producing mean-reversion into the pin.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Bullish flow: Net premium +$92.9M, P/C vol 0.60 and P/C OI 0.89; largest premium sits in calls (notably $100 and $105) — institutional buyers leaning long calls.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $102.05 is above nearest MP $97 (2026-04-10) and above MP trend; this creates asymmetric downside pressure if pin fails but currently supports mild upside magnet given dealer hedging.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning persists across next expirations (GEX concentrations at $100/$101/$102) and MP trend declines over multiple expirations; prefer 30-45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays into earnings.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$100.58$103.53

Dealer hedging and GEX pins at $100/$102 will tug spot toward $100-$103; break <$100.58 accelerates downside.

Next 1 week

$94.95$109.15

Earnings (2026-04-16) and large call flow at $105/$110 determine direction; hold above $95 to keep bullish tilt.

Next 2 weeks

$94.10$110.00

Sustained call OI wall $110-$125 and EM upper bound ~$110 will constrain rallies; failure below $94.95 opens trend to MP lower targets around $92-$95.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $97 (2026-04-10); $92 (2026-04-17); $95 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 2d $100.58/$103.53; 1w $94.95/$109.15

Support: $100.00 · $99.00 · $95.00

Resistance: $105.00 · $110.00 · $125.00

Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,184 (28.5% below spot)

Structural: Structural layers: large call OI wall $110-$125 caps upside; deep put concentration and gamma flip at $73 forms long-term downside floor (put floor $73).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+304.6M

DEX: +151.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$73 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,184 (28.5% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-the-money gamma concentrated at $100 (+$38.7M), $101 (+$23.0M) and $102 (+$23.4M) — dealers will buy spot when spot falls and sell when it rises inside this band, amplifying mean-reversion; a ±2% move (~$100-$104) will force heavy delta adjustments toward pin (buying into dips toward $100, selling into strength toward $104).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 50.5% is rich versus typical index levels and elevated into earnings; near-term ATM IVs spike to 58.9% (2026-04-17) reflecting earnings risk.

Term structure: Kinked: 1d ATM 35.5% → 8d ATM 58.9% → 15d 48.8% — short-dated IV is cheap relative to 8d which is expensive (earnings read-through).

Skew: Skew: call-heavy premium at $100/$105 and elevated IV around 8d suggests selling premium on the 8d window (sell higher-IV near-term vs buy farther-dated). Look at selling 2026-04-17 options vs 2026-05-01 where IV falls (~58.9% → ~43.8% at 22d).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $92.9M (call-dominated) concentrated at $100 (net $16,664,352) and $105 (net $7,259,703).

Directional prints: 50.8 call 99 ITM 2026-04-17 — Large call OI at $100/$99 cluster (multi-lot flow) — could be buy-to-open calls or dealer sales; paired with positive net premium, more consistent with institutional call buying. 38.8 call 105 OTM 2026-05-22 — Significant call premium at $105 with OI concentration — either directional longs or hedges; within bullish net flow this reads as bullish call accumulation.

Unusual: 33.6 put 102 OTM 2026-04-10 — Short-dated put flow 102p exp 2026-04-10 vol 4,951 vs OI 379 — could be quick buying of downside protection or put selling; given call-heavy net premium, more likely protective buys.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings 2026-04-16: IV compression or gap move can blow short-premium positions; 8d IV at 58.9% signals large repricing risk.

!Gamma flip at ~$73 — a rapid downside move to that region would remove dealer cushion and create trend acceleration lower.

!Falling MP trend and spot 5.2% above MP increases risk of mean reversion into $95-$97 if dealer pinning fails.

!Large call OI at $110-$125 can cap rallies and create profit-taking pressure if price tests $110.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at $102.05	Earnings gap/risk and high IV make stock outright less attractive without hedge.
Short stock	Weak	Avoid naked short stock — GEX positive creates mean-reversion against trend	Dealer gamma will work against trend; large call flow can pin higher.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-01 110.0 call	Capped upside at 110; earnings gap risk before 2026-04-16.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-01 100.0 put or sell 2026-05-01 100.0/96.0 put spread	If spot collapses below 96 on earnings, defined loss on spread; gamma flip far below reduces immediate dealer support.
Long calls (directional)	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-01 105.0 call	Expensive IV and time decay; better as post-earnings trade if IV compresses.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-01 96.0 put or buy 2026-05-01 96.0/90.0 bear put spread	Costs elevated; useful if price breaks <$95 support.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-24 100.0/96.0 put spread and 105.0/110.0 call spread — net short premium around pin	Earnings IV repricing and >±7.95 move (15d EM to $94.10/$110.00) can breach wings; requires active management.
Calendar / diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 102.0 call, buy 2026-05-01 102.0 call (sell higher-IV near-term, buy lower-IV farther-dated) — IV spread ~58.9% vs 43.8% (~+15pt)	Execution slippage in short leg; earnings event between legs increases gamma exposure.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 2027-01-15 96.0 put hedge or buy 2027-01-15 call diagonal (buy long-dated call, sell nearer dated against stock)	Term premium and funding cost; use if structural directional view over months.

Top Plays

Sell 100/96 put spread 2026-05-01

Sell 2026-05-01 100.0/96.0 put spread

Collect premium inside strong dealer pin at $100 with wide GEX support; positive net premium and puts priced rich across 22d window.

Credit: $0.90-$1.40

Max loss: $300.00

BE: $99.10

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max credit; cut if spot <96 or IV spikes >+15pt.

Defined-risk premium buyers comfortable holding through earnings with 3-week DTE.

Sell 102 calendar (sell 4/17, buy 5/01)

Sell 2026-04-17 102.0 call, buy 2026-05-01 102.0 call (regular calendar)

Sell elevated near-term IV 58.9% and buy lower 22d IV 43.8% (~15pt differential) to harvest theta into earnings while retaining 30d directional cover.

Credit: $0.40-$0.90

Max loss: $1000.00

BE: Depends on roll; monitor front-month move >±2%

Mgmt: Close short leg after earnings if IV collapses; cut if spot rallies >+3% above 102 into resistance at 105 or VIX-like vol jump.

Traders wanting to sell premium against earnings with defined vega exposure.

Iron condor 30d around pin (sell 4/24 wings)

Sell 2026-04-24 100.0/96.0 put spread and 105.0/110.0 call spread (net short premium)

Leverages dealer pinning and positive GEX to collect rich IV across 15d window while using defined wings aligned with EM bounds ($94.10-$110.00).

Credit: $1.20-$2.00

Max loss: $380.00

BE: Lower BE ~98.8 / Upper BE ~107.2

Mgmt: Take profit at 40-60% of max credit; widen or roll if spot breaches EM bounds or IV jumps.

Accounts comfortable short premium with active management; avoids outright directional bias.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $100.00 and holds for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-05-01 100.0/96.0 put spread

IFIf 2026-04-17 ATM IV >58.0% (front-month remains elevated) → Initiate sell 2026-04-17 102.0 call / buy 2026-05-01 102.0 call calendar

IFIf spot rallies to $105.00 and fails to close above for two sessions → Sell 2026-04-24 105.0/110.0 call spread as upside wing for condor

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot falls below $96.00 → Buy 2026-05-01 96.0 put to hedge short put spreads or roll down wings

ADJIf IV collapses >20 vol-pts post-earnings (e.g., 8d IV drops from 58.9% to <40%) → Buy back short front-month calls (close calendars) and reestablish longer-dated long calls/2026-05-01

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot <94.95 (1w EM lower bound) → Close all short premium and convert to debit protective structures (buy protection)

EXITIf trade reaches 60-70% of max profit → Take profits on short premium positions (close or tighten wings)

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealers' large positive GEX (+$304.6M) pins price into $100-$103 — favor defined short premium and calendars that sell the elevated front-month IV; invalidation: sustained break and close below $94.95 (1w EM lower bound) which opens trend to $92-$95 and favors directional puts. Top plays: sell 100/96 put spread (best for defined premium), sell 102 calendar (sell front-month IV), and 30d iron condor around pin (best for active premium selling).

Read the Directional analysis for NFLX for 2026-04-09. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.