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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $103.01EOD only

Max Pain

$92.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.95

6.8% from close

Price Gap

-11.01

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.90

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: Apr 10, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 10, 2026 close

NFLX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer directional report is available for April 10, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-slightly-bullish with upside magnet to the $100/$101 pin cluster; Confidence: 8.0/10 (base). Strongest supports: large positive GEX (+$234.2M) concentrated at $100–$102, net premium inflow +$45.4M, and max pain near $97 short-term; conflict: elevated ATM mid-term IV (9d ATM 58.3%) and upcoming earnings 2026-04-16 that can widen range.

Confidence:

8 / 10

Base 8.0/10 provided; supported by concentrated positive GEX at $100-$102 (+$46.4M/$16.4M/$9.3M) pinning spot and net premium +$45.4M; no override — earnings priced into 9d IV but pin/GEX dominate short-term.

Supports: GEX +$234.2M with concentrated +$46.4M at $100; net premium +$45.4M; max pain $97 (4/10) near EM lower bound
Conflicts: 9d ATM IV 58.3% (event-pickup ahead of 4/16), Avg IV 49.9% higher than very short-dated 37.7% (2d), and mixed flow prints (large call flow at $100)

📌Pinning: GEX +$46.4M at $100 is the dominant short-term magnet (spot $99.39).

🕰️Event: 9d IV 58.3% signals earnings-driven skew into 4/16 — expect realised vol > 2d EM.

🧭Max pain trend falling (97→95) suggests slowly lower MP over expirations, but near-term pins concentrated at $100-$101 create a sticky zone.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

Vol: 'Normal' overall but term structure shows a sharp 9d ATM IV spike to 58.3% versus 2d 37.7% — short-term event premium into earnings.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Gamma: 'Pinning' — large positive GEX +$234.2M with concentrated NTM gamma at $100 (+$46.4M) and $101/$102 supports mean-reversion into those strikes.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow: 'Mixed' — net premium +$45.4M and P/C vol 0.94 slightly call-biased; large call flow at $100 and structural call OI wall $105-$125.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above max pain (spot $99.39 vs MP $97 on 4/10) but within EM; Dealers bias to hedge calls near $100 creating upside pin.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Pinning and GEX concentration persist across next expirations (significant OI at $100–$105 across expiries) and MP trend shifts slowly; prefer 30-45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$97.20$101.58

Sustained dealer hedging at $100 (+$46.4M) will pull spot toward $100 unless a >~2.2% move breaks EM bounds.

Next 1 week

$92.14$106.64

Earnings fear (9d IV 58.3%) can expand range; break above $106.64 or below $92.14 requires strong directional flow or earnings surprise.

Next 2 weeks

$91.36$107.41

If pin holds and earnings are muted, expect mean-reversion toward $95–$100; volatility crush after earnings would compress IV and favor premium sellers.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $97 (2026-04-10); $92 (2026-04-17); $95 (2026-04-24)

EM guardrails: 2d $97.20/$101.58; 1w $92.14/$106.64

Support: $97.00 · $95.00 · $92.00

Resistance: $100.00 · $101.00 · $105.00

Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,184 (26.6% below spot)

Structural: Structural call OI wall from $105–$125 caps larger rallies; gamma flip/put floor at ~$73 is distant (structural hedge zone).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+234.2M

DEX: +143.3M shares

Gamma flip: ~$73 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 48,184 (26.6% below spot))

NTM gamma: Near-term NTM gamma concentrated at $100 (+$46.4M), $101 (+$16.4M) and $102 (+$9.3M) — dealers will buy Delta if spot rallies above these and sell Delta on declines; if spot moves -2% (~$97.4) dealers reduce long-delta hedges, accelerating downside; if +2% (~$101.4) dealers buy more delta, creating an upside magnet into $101-$102 cluster.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Avg IV 49.9% is elevated vs typical index vol but consistent with stock-specific; 2d ATM IV 37.7% is cheap vs 9d 58.3% (earnings-driven).

Term structure: Front-month kink: 2d 37.7% → 9d 58.3% → 16d 48.9% — clear earnings/near-term event premium at the 9d node (4/17).

Skew: Skew: calls heavy OI at $100/$105 while puts concentrated deep ($73) — opportunity to sell short-dated post-earnings IV (sell 9d premium) or sell stouter mid-term calls against long dated protection; a mispriced play: sell 9d ATM into elevated IV and buy 30–45d (e.g., sell 4/17 ATM IV~58.3%, buy 5/22 ATM IV~40.9% — ~17.4 vol-pt edge).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: + $45.4M bullish net premium; P/C vol 0.94 (~balanced)

Directional prints: 38 call 100 OTM 2026-04-10 — Large flow: 36,100 vol vs OI 16,471 at $100 call exp 4/10 — could be buys (driving OI) or sellers rolling; interpretation: more consistent with call buys increasing dealer hedges and pinning to $100. 34.5 put 100 ITM 2026-04-10 — Active puts: 5,173 vol vs OI 1,284 at $100 put exp 4/10 — likely hedging/sell-to-open protection pre-earnings; both prints point to heavy structural interest at $100.

Unusual: 40.9 call 100 OTM 2026-05-22 — 5/22 $100 call OI 103 vol 507 (4.9x) — institutional positioning in longer-dated upside exposure.

Risks & Catalysts

!Earnings 2026-04-16 increasing realized vol around 4/17 (9d IV 58.3%)

!Gamma flip at ~$73 is far but low-prob tail; a large downside gap removes pinning and accelerates selling

!MP shift lower over expirations (97→95) could gradually bias dealers to the downside if flow flips

!IV crush post-earnings could hurt buyers of short-dated vol but favor sellers who wait

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at market (spot $99.39)	Earnings volatility and MP below spot; capital intensive
Short stock	Weak	Short shares at market	Strong positive GEX creates mean-reversion and dealer delta buys into rallies
Covered call	Moderate	Buy stock + sell 2026-05-22 105 call (sell higher-term call against stock)	Capped upside by call OI wall at 105–125; earnings drawdown before covered leg expires
Cash-secured put (CSP)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-22 $95 put (CSP)	If earnings cause gap below $92 support, assignment risk
Long calls (directional)	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-05-22 $105 call	High theta and IV; expensive vs nearer-dated hedges
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-04-17 $95 put, sell $90 put (bear put spread)	Short-dated; elevated 9d IV inflates debit; limited if pin holds above $97
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-04-10 $95/$92 put spread + sell $101/$104 call spread (defined-risk condor around pin)	Earnings-led gap outside wings; sell premium into concentrated GEX (benefit) but risky if IV spikes further
Calendar / diagonal (sell high-IV near, buy longer)	Strong	Sell 2026-04-17 $100 call (ATM, IV~58.3%), buy 2026-05-22 $100 call (IV~40.9%) — regular calendar	Gamma into earnings; capture vol roll-down; risk if directional move >EM before decay
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-12-18 $85 LEAP call, sell 2026-05-22 $105 call (covered diagonal)	Requires capital and management; benefits from selling nearer-term elevated IV vs longer-term cheaper IV
Put spread (short put spread)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 2026-05-22 $95/$90 put spread	Pin at $100 helps collect premium; downside breach below $92 invalidates thesis

Top Plays

Sell 100 calendar (sell short-high IV, buy longer)

Sell 2026-04-17 $100 call, Buy 2026-05-22 $100 call

Sell elevated 9d IV (58.3%) against cheaper 30d+ (40.9%) — ~17.4 vol-pt edge; plays to pin and expected IV roll-down after earnings.

Max loss: Margin-dependent (directional gamma risk)

Mgmt: Take 50–70% of max credit if spot moves >1.5% away from $100 or IV re-rises; hedge by buying short-dated OTM call if rally threatens >$104.

Premium sellers looking to play mean-reversion and vol roll-down

Sell 95/90 put spread (30–45 DTE)

Sell 2026-05-22 $95/$90 put spread

Defined-risk premium with MP support at $97 and GEX pinning to $100; collects premium while avoiding assignment risk short-term.

Credit: $0.40-$0.75

Max loss: $450.00

BE: $94.60

Mgmt: Take profit at 40–60% of max credit; cut at 1.5x debit or if spot closes below $92 for two sessions.

Accounts wanting defined risk bullish-to-neutral exposure

Short iron condor around pin (weekly tactical)

Sell 2026-04-10 $95/$92 put spread and sell $101/$104 call spread

Exploits concentrated positive GEX and short 2d EM (±$2.19); high edge if no earnings surprise and pin holds to $100.

Credit: $0.60-$1.20

Max loss: $2800.00

Mgmt: Take 50–70% profit if premium decays quickly; exit if spot breaks EM bounds ($97.20 or $101.58) with volume.

Traders tactical into expiry comfortable with weeklies

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot tags $100.00 and holds for 30 minutes → Sell 2026-04-17 $100 call and buy 2026-05-22 $100 call (sell calendar)

IFIf spot retraces to $95.00 and shows support (10-min hold) → Sell 2026-05-22 $95/$90 put spread

IFIf spot within $99.00–$101.00 before 2026-04-10 open → Sell 2026-04-10 $95/$92 put spread + sell $101/$104 call spread (short iron condor)

Adjustment Triggers

ADJIf spot rallies above $104.00 for two consecutive 30-min bars → Buy back short 101/104 call spread and roll sold 100 call in calendars to 101 short near-term or buy protective calls 105+ (e.g., 105 5/22)

ADJIf IV (9d) > 65% or expected move exceeds $8.00 → Trim short-dated short premium (close iron condor / calendars) and shift to longer-dated diagonal (sell 5/22 instead)

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot prints <$92.14 (1-week EM lower bound) → Close all short premium (put spreads/condors) and consider buying 30/45d protective puts (buy 5/22 $90 put)

EXITIf you achieve 50–70% of max P/L on short premium trades → Take profits and remove directional gamma exposure

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealers are pinning NFLX to $100–$101 via large positive GEX; favor selling near-term elevated IV and collecting premium around the pin. Invalidation: sustained close below $92.14 (1w EM lower) or a directional earnings surprise outside $92–$106. Top plays: 1) 100-call calendar (sell 4/17 buy 5/22) for vol-roll capture (best for vol sellers), 2) 95/90 put spread 5/22 for defined bullish premium, 3) short iron condor 4/10 tactical for weekly premium sellers.

Read the Directional analysis for NFLX for 2026-04-08. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.