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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $82.31EOD only

Max Pain

$104.00

Next expiry Jul 2, 2026

Expected Move

±$9.28

11.3% from close

Price Gap

+21.69

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.99

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.5/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 26, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 26, 2026 close

MSTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 29, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-bearish bias: bearish flow and spot above MP are countered by strong positive gamma pinning near $89 and $100. High vol suggests potential for mean reversion or pin action.

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

Base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive pinning; -0.5 spot 4.1% from MP; +1 VIX 18. Accept base 5.5.

Supports: Positive gamma pinning near $89 (Jul2) and $100 (Jul10); dealer long gamma $21.7M; VIX elevated.
Conflicts: Bearish net flow; spot above MP; high vol may accelerate moves.

📌Gamma pin near $89 (Jul2 OI) & $100 (Jul10) suggests mean-reversion.

🐻Bearish put flow dominates; net premium negative.

📊IV high vs VIX; vol premium pricing risk of sharp moves.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV high vs typical; VIX 17.65; driven by BTC volatility and events.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Positive GEX $21.7M; pinning at $89 (Jul2) & $100 (Jul10); gamma flip ~$80.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net bearish premium; puts dominate over calls.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot above max pain ($89); indicates potential pinning pull lower.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Weekly OPEX and BTC catalysts; pinning dynamics dominate.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$85.06$100.31

Gamma support at $89; EM guardrails $85.06/$100.31; pinning likely.

Next 2 weeks

$77.51$107.86

Risk to gamma flip at ~$80; range low $77.51; resistance at $107.86.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $89 (2026-07-02); $100 (2026-07-10); $116 (2026-07-17)

EM guardrails: 2d $85.06/$100.31

Support: $89.00 · $77.51

Resistance: $94.00 · $107.86

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,977 (13.7% below spot)

Structural: Support: $89 (pin), $77.51 (range low). Resistance: $94, $107.86. EM guardrails: $85.06/$100.31.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+21.7M

DEX: +56.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 16,977 (13.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net positive gamma $21.7M; long 56.5M shares DEX; gamma flip ~$80 (put OI 13.7% below spot). Dealers flatten near strikes.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX; options overpriced; potential vol crush post-OPEX.

Term structure: Contango with kinks at Jul2, Jul10, Jul17 expiries; front-end elevated.

Skew: Put skew rich; consider short put spreads to capture premium decay.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -241M, P/C vol 1.28, bearish.

Directional prints: 103.8 put 83 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 10.6, near-term; likely bought puts, bearish.

Unusual: 218 put 35 OTM 2026-07-10 — Vol/OI 12.2, IV 218%; extreme deep OTM put activity. 103.8 put 83 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 10.6, high; unusual bearish positioning.

Risks & Catalysts

!BTC price swing breaking gamma flip at ~$80.

!IV crush if vol normalizes quickly.

!OPEX pin failure leads to sharp directional move.

!Bearish flow accelerates if spot breaks below $89 support.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-31 $84.00/$75.00 put spread Why now: Neutral-bearish bias with high IV supports buying put spreads to define risk.	Underlying pins above short strike; IV crush reduces spread value. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Long put	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-31 $84.00 put Why now: High IV and bearish flow favor buying puts for leverage on potential drop.	IV crush or pin action reduces put value; time decay accelerates. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Put diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-31 $80.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $85.00 put Why now: IV term structure steep; short leg captures premium, long leg provides continued bearish exposure.	Underlying rallies hard; short leg assignment risk if not managed.

Top Plays

Put Diagonal

Sell 2026-07-31 $80.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $85.00 put

Captures premium via short leg while maintaining bearish exposure.

Why this play: Liquidity pass and IV term structure advantage outrank others.

Debit: $3.69-$4.51

Max loss: $4.51

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Close if underlying breaches $89 invalidation.

Traders seeking defined risk with time premium decay.

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-31 $84.00/$75.00 put spread

Profits from moderate downside with capped risk.

Why this play: Defined risk suits neutral-bearish bias, but lacks liquidity.

Debit: $2.30-$2.81

Max loss: $2.81

BE: $81.19

Mgmt: Exit if price rises above $94. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Risk-averse traders expecting move to $84.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-31 $84.00 put

Direct bearish bet with high potential gain.

Why this play: Leverage play but high premium and no liquidity make it least favored.

Debit: $5.22-$6.38

Max loss: $6.38

BE: $77.62

Mgmt: Consider stop-loss at $94. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Aggressive traders with high risk tolerance.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFPrice tests $94 resistance and forms bearish engulfing on 15min → Enter put diagonal (sell Jul31 $80p / buy Aug21 $85p) within $3.69-$4.51

Exit Triggers

EXITPrice closes above $89 → Exit put diagonal immediately

Tactical Summary

Neutral-bearish. High IV and gamma pin near $89/$100. Favor put diagonal for defined risk. Entry on $94 rejection, exit above $89. Avoid low-liquidity spreads and long puts.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 29, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.