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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $103.84EOD only

Max Pain

$115.00

Next expiry Jun 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.93

6.7% from close

Price Gap

+11.16

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.98

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.5/10

Bearish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 23, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 23, 2026 close

MSTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 24, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish bias driven by dealer short gamma (-$45.9M) and bearish flow, amplified by high vol. Spot (≈$94) sits 18% below max pain ($115), reducing pin support. Gamma flip at $75 poses downside acceleration risk if broken. Positive DEX (+54M shares) provides some buffer, but short gamma dominance suggests further downside toward EM guardrails (2d low $87.7).

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5 (neutral); +2 GEX/flow aligned (bearish); -1 spot far from MP (support); +0.5 VIX 19 (moderate vol). Net 6.5, leaning bearish.

Supports: Dealer short gamma, bearish flow, high vol, spot below EM guardrails.
Conflicts: Spot far from gamma flip ($75), positive DEX (+54M shares) may buffer, max pain at $115+.

📉Dealer short gamma amplifies downside, bearish flow.

🔄Spot 18% below max pain may provide support.

⚠️Gamma flip at $75 if broken, acceleration risk.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High: IV elevated relative to history, driven by BTC volatility and event risk.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Negative GEX -$45.9M (short gamma) amplifies moves; gamma flip near $75 from put OI concentration.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Bearish: net premium selling pressure, put/call skewed puts indicating hedging.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot ≈$94, 18.1% below max pain $115; reduces pinning but dealer hedging exerts downward pressure.

Thesis duration: Event-specific — Near-term OPEX (6/26, 7/2) drives gamma dynamics; high vol and short gamma make regime event-sensitive.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$87.70$100.56

Short gamma pressure near 6/26 OPEX, downside to $87.7 support.

Next 1 week

$83.13$105.13

Support at $83.13-$87.7, but bearish flow may test lower.

Next 2 weeks

$79.45$108.80

Range bound $79.45-$108.8, gamma flip at $75 key risk.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $115 (2026-06-26); $113 (2026-07-02); $125 (2026-07-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $87.70/$100.56; 1w $83.13/$105.13

Support: $90.00 · $79.45

Resistance: $108.80

Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,246 (20.3% below spot)

Structural: Support 90, 79.45; resistance 108.8; gamma flip ~$75; max pain pins $115 (6/26), $113 (7/2), $125 (7/10).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-45.9M

DEX: +54.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$75 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,246 (20.3% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$45.9M (short gamma), DEX +54.2M shares (long delta), gamma flip ~$75 from put OI.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: MSTR IV elevated vs VIX (~19), implying rich options premium; suggests bearish positioning risk.

Term structure: Likely backwardation into OPEX (6/26), with kinks at weekly expiries; near-dated vols higher.

Skew: Put skew elevated; consider bear put spread or short call spread for vol crush post-OPEX.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$680M with P/C vol ratio 1.28 indicates bearish flow.

Directional prints: 92.3 put 92 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 53.7x: heavy put buying, likely bearish positioning. 93.3 call 108 OTM 2026-07-02 — Vol/OI 49.4x: aggressive call buying, bullish bet.

Unusual: 93.4 call 100 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 47.1x: high relative volume, speculative call activity. 99.2 put 88 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 30.9x: significant put volume, bearish.

Risks & Catalysts

!BTC volatility spike reversing downside

!Gamma squeeze above max pain if spot rallies

!Positive DEX buffers fall, limiting downside

!Gamma flip at $75 triggers acceleration if broken

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy 2026-07-31 $90.00/$80.00 put spread Why now: Bear put spread limits risk and targets downside defined by gamma flip at $75, using post-earnings expiration.	BTC volatility spike or gamma squeeze could reverse move, limiting profit if spot rebounds above max pain.
Call credit spread	Moderate	Sell 2026-07-31 $115.00/$131.00 call spread Why now: Call credit spread captures premium decay with limited risk, targeting resistance near max pain $115 but using nearer strikes.	Upside surprise from BTC rally could break spread; gamma risk near expiration.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-31 $90.00 put Why now: Long put offers convexity and defined loss, aligning with short gamma dominance and negative flow.	Time decay if spot stagnates; tail risk from BTC reversal.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-31 $90.00/$80.00 put spread

Buy $90/$80 put spread expiring after earnings; limits risk while capturing downside from short gamma.

Why this play: Best defined-risk play to target downside to gamma flip at $75, with clear invalidation and lower cost than long put.

Debit: $3.01-$3.69

Max loss: $3.69

BE: $86.31

Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks above $108.8 or target $80 is hit; adjust if gamma flip at $75 is breached.

Traders seeking capped risk with specific downside target.

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-31 $90.00 put

Buy $90 put expiring after earnings; maximizes profit if MSTR drops sharply.

Why this play: Provides convexity and unlimited upside if selloff accelerates, but higher cost and time decay vs spread.

Debit: $7.72-$9.43

Max loss: $9.43

BE: $80.57

Mgmt: Set stop-loss at premium paid ($9.43) or invalidation at $108.8; consider taking profits on a sharp drop.

Aggressive traders expecting large move or high volatility.

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-31 $115.00/$131.00 call spread

Sell $115/$131 call spread; collects premium if spot stays below $115.

Why this play: Low probability of success due to resistance at $115 but limited reward and higher loss potential; less aligned with bearish thesis.

Credit: $2.04-$2.50

Max loss: $13.50

BE: $117.50

Mgmt: Close if spot approaches $115; limit loss to $13.5 if spot rallies above $131.

Conservative traders betting on sideways or slight decline near max pain.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF MSTR breaks below $90 support with bearish flow → THEN buy 2026-07-31 $90/$80 put spread for $3.01-$3.69 debit

IFIF spot falls below $90 with confirmed momentum → THEN buy 2026-07-31 $90 put for $7.72-$9.43

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot hits $80 target or returns above $108.8 → THEN close all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias on short gamma dominance; primary entry on break below $90 via put spread (capped risk) or long put (convex). Exit at $80 target or invalidation above $108.8.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 24, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.