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MSTR

Strategy IncClose $122.81EOD only

Max Pain

$127.00

Next expiry Jun 18, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.07

5.0% from close

Price Gap

+4.19

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.93

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: Jun 16, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MSTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Jun 16, 2026 close

MSTR Directional Report

Analysis based on market close June 17, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish near-term from negative gamma and spot below MP. Support $102.21 key. DEX positive conflicts.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5; +2 GEX/flow; -1 MP distance; +0.5 VIX.

Supports: Negative gamma, spot below MP, support levels.
Conflicts: Positive DEX dealer long delta.

🔻GEX -$23.4M amplifies downside

🎯Spot 8% below Max Pain $127

🛡️Support $102.21, flip $100

📈DEX +52.6M shares support

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV High vs VIX 18 due to stock vol and expiries.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$23.4M, short gamma regime; flip ~$100.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow Mixed, net premium neutral.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot 8% below Max Pain $127, no pin.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Multiple expiries Jun18/26/Jul2 extend thesis.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$111.66$121.46

GEX neg, spot below MP; support 111.66

Next 1 week

$105.43$127.68

Flip near 100, pin at 127

Next 2 weeks

$102.21$130.91

Support 102.21, resistance 125-128; break 100 bearish

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $127 (2026-06-18); $135 (2026-06-26); $145 (2026-07-02)

EM guardrails: 2d $111.66/$121.46; 1w $105.43/$127.68

Support: $102.21

Resistance: $125.00 · $127.00 · $128.00

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,197 (14.2% below spot)

Structural: Max Pain: $127/135/145. Guardrails: 2d 111.66-121.46, 1w 105.43-127.68. Support 102.21, Res 125/127/128. Gamma flip ~$100.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-23.4M

DEX: +52.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 23,197 (14.2% below spot))

NTM gamma: GEX -$23.4M, DEX +52.6M. Short gamma flips near $100.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV rich vs VIX 18; expensive for longs.

Term structure: Upward slope, near-term high from expiries.

Skew: Put skew steep; consider put spreads.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net buy $609M; P/C vol 1.17, OI 0.94.

Directional prints: 73.2 call 123 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 36.5; aggressive OTM call buying. 75.3 call 133 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 16.6; similar aggressive OTM call buying. 74 put 109 OTM 2026-06-26 — Vol/OI 6.3; OTM put buying (bearish).

Unusual: 106 put 50 OTM 2026-09-18 — Deep OTM put, vol/OI 8.8, IV 106% - speculative/hedge. 418 put 220 ITM 2026-06-18 — ITM put, vol/OI 7.1, extreme IV 418% - arbitrage/spread. 346.1 put 190 ITM 2026-06-18 — ITM put, vol/OI 7.5, extreme IV 346% - similar.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $100 accelerates downside.

!Positive DEX buffers selloffs.

!Expiry events Jun18/26 add vol.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-07-02 $118.00/$104.00 put spread Why now: Bearish bias confirmed by negative gamma and flow skew; bear put spread limits risk if positive DEX buffers selloffs.	If spot rallies above short strike, max loss is net debit; positive DEX could cause bullish reversal. Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.
Long put	Moderate-Weak	Buy 2026-07-02 $109.00 put Why now: Aggressive OTM call buying suggests top; long put profits from continued decline with limited risk.	Time decay if spot stays above strike; positive DEX could slow selloff. Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Call credit spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell 2026-07-02 $128.00/$134.00 call spread Why now: Call buying flow may be exhausted; call credit spread caps loss if rally continues.	Rally beyond short call cap gains; defined risk spread limits loss to width minus credit.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-07-02 $118.00/$104.00 put spread

Profits from decline while capping downside.

Why this play: Outranks: defined risk, bearish bias, buffers from positive DEX.

Debit: $4.72-$5.77

Max loss: $5.77

BE: $112.23

Mgmt: Exit above $125; take profit near $104. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.

Risk-conscious bears

Long Put

Buy 2026-07-02 $109.00 put

Unlimited profit potential from sustained decline.

Why this play: Direct bearish bet, high reward if drop continues.

Debit: $3.49-$4.26

Max loss: $4.26

BE: $104.74

Mgmt: Set stop loss at $125; monitor theta decay. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.

Aggressive bears

Call Credit Spread

Sell 2026-07-02 $128.00/$134.00 call spread

Sells calls to profit from capped upside.

Why this play: Liquid, less aggressive, caps loss from rally.

Credit: $1.08-$1.33

Max loss: $4.67

BE: $129.33

Mgmt: Close if spot rises above $134.

Conservative bears

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIF spot breaks below $102.21 support → THEN enter Bear Put Spread: Buy 2026-07-02 $118/$104 put spread

IFIF spot rejects at $125 resistance and declines → THEN enter Long Put: Buy 2026-07-02 $109 put

IFIF spot holds below $125 with bearish momentum → THEN enter Call Credit Spread: Sell 2026-07-02 $128/$134 call spread

Exit Triggers

EXITIF spot rises above $125 → THEN exit all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish near-term; support 102.21, resistance 125. Top play bear put spread (strat1). Entry below 102.21; exit above 125. Long put (strat2) for aggressive, call credit spread (strat3) for conservative.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on June 17, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.